NHL Betting Trends: Home Cooking and Squad Goals
- 27th Dec 2016
- Allen Moody
Last Updated: 2016-12-27
Home teams are still putting up impressive numbers in the National Hockey League, but we may be seeing the beginning of a leveling off, as they haven’t been able to keep up with their torrid start. While the season-long statistics still look pretty good, it’s our job as sports bettors to try and stay one step ahead of the sportsbooks rather than one step behind.
For the 2016-17 NHL season, home teams are 304-211, good for a $3,200 flat-bet profit and a 4.5% ROI, but a closer examination will show that home teams are just 92-79 in December with an average price of -140, which has yielded a flat-bet loss of just over $1,000. That 92-79 record translates to 53.8%, which is much closer to the 54.5% winning percentage of home teams since the start of the 2010-11 season.
Both home favorites and home underdogs have shown a flat-bet loss so far in December, although that could change in the next few days, as teams return to action tonight.
One of the few trends involving home teams that has shown a profit is December has been home favorites with no rest against a team off of a home victory, as these teams have gone 4-1 this month and are 10-1 on the season, which is still much higher than the long-term winning percentage of 61%.
December is also starting to show a bit of separation between the haves and have-nots, as favorites of -170 and greater have gone 32-13 this month, good for a +500 flat-bet profit and an ROI of 5.4%. These teams were 45-26 through November and showed a flat-bet loss of just over $400.
December has also seen an increase in scoring, with teams averaging 2.8 goals per game, as opposed to 2.7 for the season. While that doesn’t seem like much, it has made a difference in low totals. When we last looked at NHL trends on Nov. 28, games with a total of 5 had gone 49-51-48, while in December these games have gone 46-28-24. Strangely, games with a total of 5.5 have gone under more frequently this month, going just 52-90 in December after going 76-103 to start the season.
Teams with the best over percentage so far this season have been Pittsburgh (22-9-4, 9-3 December), New York Rangers (18-12-6, 5-5-2 December) and Philadelphia (18-13-5, 4-6-2 December).
Teams with the best under percentage this season have been San Jose (6-18-10, 4-2-4 December), Arizona (10-21-3, 3-9-1 December) and Columbus (10-18-4, 3-6-2 December).
- The Penguins are around a -135 favorite out there in the betting market, despite a boatload of injuries and a Senators team right in the thick of the Atlantic Division chase for first place.
- If this number closes 3.5 or 4, this will be the first time this season that the Nets have been favored by more than a possession. As it is, it’s just the third time this season the Brooklyn will close a favorite.
- As we head into the Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, there are a lot of surprises on the standings board.
- The Wizards and Hawks stayed under the total for us on Wednesday and now we’re faced with a fairly light schedule on Thursday with just five games on a night most people will have their attention glued to college basketball.
- The New York Knicks (27-43) are heading west to Portland this week where they’ll meet the Trail Blazers (32-38) at the MODA Center on Thursday.