NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 7

Last Updated: 2018-10-20

supercontest week 7 picksThe leaves are changing, the winds are blowing colder, and the Westgate SuperContest is getting harder. Those are all things that we can expect in October and November. What makes the SuperContest more challenging? Bye weeks. The NFL market is tight week in and week out, but as more teams enjoy their one week off of the season, the number of available games gets smaller. Finding five out of 16 games is hard enough, but take that number down to five out of 14 or five out of 13 and the degree of difficulty takes a big leap.

Furthermore, for those that have a hard time playing the Thursday Night Football game, bye weeks are even more problematic. This week, contestants had to choose five of the 13 games if they bypassed the Broncos vs. Cardinals. For those that shy away from the uncertainty of London games, they had to pick five of the 12 games. Four teams are on a bye again next week, with yet another London game, and then six teams are on a bye in Week 9.

These are important weeks for everybody. For those that got off to a slow start, this is a good time to attempt to pick up ground by going against the grain. For those that have started well, it is important to maintain that pace through these rockier seas.

Here at BangTheBook, the seas have been quite rocky over the last couple of weeks. Each week presents new opportunities to pick winners, so we’re hopeful that we can improve our fortunes here in Week 7, but time is a factor. With a maximum of 85 picks in this contest and 30 already accounted for, the time is now to get on a hot streak.

Most of the field probably feels the same way. There are 3,123 contestants that ponied up the $1500 entry fee to enter this year’s SuperContest. There are another 128 in the Gold that put up $5000 for the winner-take-all prize. So far, the field is under 50 percent for the season, but those at the top of the board have been picking winners at an obscene rate, which means trouble for the rest of us.

Jaz is the leader with 23.5 points out of 30 possible points. That’s almost an 80 percent win rate and a 78.33 percent point rate. Kapital Gains is second with 23 points and five entries are tied with 22.5 points.

The field is at 49.74 percent overall this season and the top-five consensus is just 12-18. The consensus overall is just 40-48-5. The SuperContest Gold field is at 52.28 percent, with a top-five consensus at 14-14-3 and a consensus record of 48-37-5. The top-five consensus has 31 picks because two tied for the fifth most-selected sides in Week 2.

In terms of our entries, we need to get hot in a hurry. Our BangTheBook.com Gold entry is doing the best of the bunch with a 15-12-3 record. The leader in the Gold has 20.5 points, so we’re in a bit better shape there, but we still need to make a move. The BangTheBook traditional entry is 14-13-3 and the BangTheBook Podcast entry is 9-17-4 as we take a look at Week 7.

Here are our picks for Week 7 of the 2018 SuperContest:

BangTheBook (14-13-3, 51.85%)

13 Colts -7.5

21 Ravens -2.5

23 Redskins -2

25 Rams -9.5

28 Giants +5.5

 

BangTheBook Podcast (9-17-4, 34.62%)

7 Buccaneers -3

10 Dolphins +2.5

18 Jets +3

20 Texans +5

21 Ravens -2.5

 

BangTheBook.com (15-12-3, 55.56%)

10 Dolphins +2.5

20 Texans +5

21 Ravens -2.5

23 Redskins -2

28 Giants +5.5

You’ll notice a little bit of a change in strategy this week. The BangTheBook entry is looking for anti-consensus home favorites with the Colts, Ravens, Redskins, and Rams. The BangTheBook Podcast entry is in search of anti-consensus home dogs with the Dolphins and Jets. All of our entries have aligned a lot with the consensus the last couple of weeks and have had really poor results. Usually being with the crowd is a bad thing in the NFL. We’ll see if things can turn around for us this week.

Unfortunately for listeners, host Adam Burke pivoted a bit from the picks that he discussed on Friday’s SuperContest Selections segment, but that means that you heard more about the rest of the card with some assistance from Wes Reynolds.

Pick counts were pretty split on Thursday night, as 200 contestants took Denver and 208 took Arizona. Ten Gold contests took Denver and 11 took Arizona. The consensus is off to an 0-1 start this week, but it isn’t a big spread by any means.

Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 7 (Gold count in parentheses):

1 Broncos 200 (10) WIN

2 Cardinals 208 (11)

 

3 Chargers 722 (29)

4 Titans (+6.5) 444 (22)

 

5 Patriots 966 (consensus #2) (26)

6 Bears* (+3) 605 (30)

 

7 Buccaneers* 743 (39) (Gold #4)

8 Browns (+3) 300 (9)

 

9 Lions 841 (consensus #4) (46) (Gold #2)

10 Dolphins* (+2.5) 356 (14)

 

11 Eagles* 505 (18)

12 Panthers (+4.5) 591 (23)

 

13 Colts* 435 (18)

14 Bills (+7.5) 373 (14)

 

15 Chiefs* 886 (consensus #3) (27)

16 Bengals (+6) 408 (22)

 

17 Vikings 1192 (consensus #1) (49) (Gold #1)

18 Jets* (+3) 307 (5)

 

19 Jaguars* 533 (22)

20 Texans (+5) 371 (22)

 

21 Ravens* 837 (consensus #5) (35) (Gold #5)

22 Saints (+2.5) 662 (21)

 

23 Redskins* 713 (19)

24 Cowboys (+2) 516 (30)

 

25 Rams 348 (8)

26 49ers* (+9.5) 485 (22)

 

27 Falcons* 391 (9)

28 Giants (+5.5) 622 (40) (Gold #3)

The top-five consensus in the traditional SuperContest is the Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and Baltimore Ravens. Once again this week, we see a lot of similarities between the traditional and the Gold, as the Vikings, Lions, and Ravens appear in both. Two very public teams in the Patriots and Chiefs appear in the traditional, but not the Gold.

The top-five consensus in the SuperContest Gold is the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Baltimore Ravens. It’s a rather chalky top-five this week, but all of the favorites are short prices and the Giants looks like a line value grab as that number has moved a bit in the market.

Follow along with our SuperContest picks every week at BangTheBook.com in this Saturday article and with the BangTheBook Podcast entry every Friday during the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

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