NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 5

Last Updated: 2018-10-06

westgate supercontest week 5The NFL presents a lot of conundrums for bettors. We’re four weeks into the season and Week 5 already started with New England’s cover against Indianapolis. On one hand, as we try to evaluate these teams, we can say that they’ve only played four games. On the other hand, it’s already been four games, which represents 25 percent of the season. What we see is what we get a lot quicker in the NFL than in other sports because of the small sample size.

One of the most interesting signs in the 2018 Westgate SuperContest so far is that this crowd is getting sharper. Everybody struggled in Week 2, but outside of that miserable 38.57 percent success rate, the field has three weeks of 54 percent or better. You better get it figured out quickly if you are lagging behind.

Fortunately, here at BangTheBook.com, only one of our three entries is lagging behind a bit. With 3,123 entrants vying for a share of the $4.3 million prize pool, the margin for error is smaller than ever and the contest appears to be more competitive than ever given the success that the field has had so far.

With the increased popularity of the contest, operators at the Westgate Superbook decided to pay the top 100 plus ties instead of the top 50, but that still only means that somewhere around 3.5 percent of the entrants will catch a piece of the winnings for their time and efforts.

The winner-take-all SuperContest Gold has 128 entrants in its second year and we’re off to a good start in that one, but it is the ultimate win or go home in the sports betting world.

Before we look at our picks for this week, a quick recap of how this all works. Contestants pick five games against the spread each week from a card of stale numbers that is released on Wednesday evening. That’s it. It’s that simple. It cost $1500 to enter the traditional SuperContest and $5000 to enter the Gold.

The field is 30644-28971-2685 through four weeks for a success rate of 51.4 percent. The Gold field is 1335-1098-117 for a 54.87 percent success rate. Last week’s 62.37 percent set a new record high for the Gold.

For the most part, things are going well at BangTheBook. Our BangTheBook traditional SuperContest entry is 13-5-2, which is excellent and also in the money as things currently stand in a tie for 94th. Our BangTheBook.com SuperContest Gold entry is 12-6-2 and two points off of the lead. Our BangTheBook Podcast entry is bringing up the rear at 8-10-2, as some early season gambles haven’t paid off to date.

With that, here are our Week 5 picks:

BangTheBook (13-5-2, 72.22%)

6 Jaguars +3

7 Titans -3.5

13 Steelers -3

18 Dolphins +6.5

27 Texans -3

 

BangTheBook Podcast (8-10-2, 44.44%)

3 Ravens -3

6 Jaguars +3

23 Eagles -3

27 Texans -3

30 Redskins +6.5

 

BangTheBook Gold (12-6-2, 66.67%)

3 Ravens -3

6 Jaguars +3

13 Steelers -3

18 Dolphins +6.5

27 Texans -3

The Texans and Jaguars certainly hold a lot of importance for us this week. Taking games on key numbers was virtually unavoidable this week, with five games on 3, two games on 7, and two games on 1. Obviously +/-1 isn’t a key number, but those have been defined as coin flip games by the oddsmakers and risk managers and you really don’t want to run into too many coin flip situations in the NFL or in this contest because it requires you to run very, very well on them.

While the record may not show it, the analysis has been solid on our SuperContest segment with host Adam Burke of the BangTheBook Podcast entry. Be sure to give this week’s a listen, as Wes Reynolds joined Adam to help analyze the Week 5 card.

The field started out well with a consensus winner for both groups on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots were picked by 240 in the traditional and 12 in the Gold. The Colts were selected by 138 in the traditional and seven in the Gold.

Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 5 (Gold counts in parentheses):

1 Patriots* 240 (12)

2 Colts (+10.5) 138 (7)

 

3 Ravens 1014 (consensus #1) (45) (Gold #1)

4 Browns* (+3) 372 (8)

 

5 Chiefs* 605 (24)

6 Jaguars (+3) 682 (35) (Gold #5)

 

7 Titans 811 (consensus #3) (25)

8 Bills* (+3.5) 299 (16)

 

9 Panthers* 525 (20)

10 Giants (+7) 319 (27)

 

11 Jets* 490 (16)

12 Broncos (+1) 712 (28)

 

13 Steelers* 601 (39) (tie Gold #2)

14 Falcons (+3) 279 (5)

 

15 Packers 480 (12)

16 Lions* (+1) 654 (22)

 

17 Bengals* 416 (15)

18 Dolphins (+6.5) 695 (36) (Gold #4)

 

19 Chargers* 436 (18)

20 Raiders (+4.5) 512 (23)

 

21 49ers* 202 (7)

22 Cardinals (+4) 759 (consensus #4) (39) (Gold #2)

 

23 Eagles* 426 (21)

24 Vikings (+3) 607 (16)

 

25 Rams 873 (consensus #2) (25)

26 Seahawks* (+7) 382 (13)

 

27 Texans* 705 (33)

28 Cowboys (+3) 224 (11)

 

29 Saints* 365 (10)

30 Redskins (+6.5) 757 (consensus #5) (32)

 

The top-five consensus in the traditional SuperContest is the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, and Washington Redskins.

The top-five consensus in the SuperContest Gold is the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, and Jacksonville Jaguars.

The consensus in the SuperContest has had a couple of solid weeks in a row and sits at 29-31-2 with the top-five now even at 10-10. The Gold consensus is a stellar 37-20-3 on the season with a top-five consensus of 11-8-2. You’ll notice that count is 21 after four weeks because two games tied for the fifth most-selected side in Week 2.

Follow along with our SuperContest picks every week at BangTheBook.com in this Saturday article and with the BangTheBook Podcast entry every Friday during the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

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