NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 3

Last Updated: 2018-09-22

Two weeks are in the books in the grind that is the Westgate SuperContest and we’re pretty happy overall with how things have gone for us here at BangTheBook.com. The appropriately-named BangTheBook.com entry is off to a 7-2-1 start in the SuperContest Gold, so we head into Week 3 tied for the lead.

It is a mixed bag with our traditional entries, as the BangTheBook one is 6-3-1 and the BangTheBook Podcast one has the inverse at 3-6-1, but we’re happy with our selections for Week 3 and ready for the games to kick off.

The SuperContest is the ultimate handicapping test of wills. As we’ve talked about, picking five NFL games against the spread each week seems like no sweat, but the second guessing and the hindsight can beat you down if you aren’t able to keep your emotions in check. Picking yourself up is almost as hard as picking winners some weeks in this event.

One of the main reasons why that part of the equation is so hard is that there are 3,123 entrants in the traditional SuperContest, so gaining ground is not easy to do and every point really, truly counts. That is a record-high for the field and it cost $1500 to get into the tournament. The SuperContest Gold field has 128 contestants in the winner-take-all $5000 contest.

The SuperContest is paying out the top 100 plus ties this year for the first time instead of the top 50. We’ll certainly have ties, but the top 100 means that only 3.2 percent of the field will make something for its time. With the increased entry count in the Gold, less than one percent of the field makes money in the winner-take-all format. That’s why every point is like a precious pearl.

First place in the traditional SuperContest will pay over $1.44 million, so there is quite a pot of gold at the end of the proverbial rainbow. First place in the Gold will pay $640,000. That would be a pretty sweet pay day as well.

There is no such thing as a lock in betting, but I’d go out on a pretty strong limb to say that Week 3 in the SuperContest will go better than Week 2 did. The field hit at 38.57 percent with 6015 winners and 9580 losers. The field as a whole, after a 58 percent Week 1, is just 47.94 percent for the season.

It was also a bad week in the SuperContest Gold, as the field went from 59.11 percent in Week 1 to 42.19 percent in Week 2. Overall, the Gold field sits at 617-610-43 for a 50.29 percent success rate.

As mentioned, we have three entries at BangTheBook. Our traditional entries are BangTheBook and BangTheBook Podcast. Our Gold entry is BangTheBook.com. You can hear host Adam Burke’s thoughts for his BangTheBook Podcast entry every Friday on the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

Here are our Week 3 picks:

BangTheBook (6-3-1, 66.67%)

6 Bengals +3

10 Saints +3

22 49ers +6.5

26 Cardinals +6

27 Seahawks -2

 

BangTheBook Podcast (3-6-1, 33.33%)

10 Saints +3

11 Ravens -5.5

15 Dolphins -3

22 49ers +6.5

24 Chargers +7

 

BangTheBook.com (7-2-1, 77.78%)

6 Bengals +3

10 Saints +3

22 49ers +6.5

24 Chargers +7

27 Seahawks -2

There are a few surprises with this week’s picks. After futily stepping in front of the Chiefs last week with his BangTheBook Podcast entry, Adam is back against them again, but the 49ers do appear on all three of our cards. The Cardinals were a tough bet to make, but they hit the BangTheBook card.

The Dolphins were not mentioned on Friday’s segment, but became a late add to the card for Adam’s Podcast entry. A slow start for a Raiders team that has been badly outplayed in second halves this season will make life difficult. Two bad travel spots are on that card, with Denver’s first road game in Baltimore and Oakland’s long trip to Miami. We’ll see how those work out.

Adam couldn’t come to a decision with his remaining four selections and lost out on a winner on the Browns. Will that come back to haunt him?

Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 3 (Gold in parentheses, * denotes home team):

1 Browns* 316 (11) WIN

2 Jets (+3) 124 (9)

 

3 Eagles* 488 (21)

4 Colts (+6.5) 576 (22)

 

5 Panthers* 484 (21)

6 Bengals (+3) 580 (23)

 

7 Jaguars* 317 (9)

8 Titans (+9.5) 272(12)

 

9 Falcons* 346 (16)

10 Saints (+3) 823 (consensus #1) (48) (Gold #1)

 

11 Ravens* 756 (consensus #3) (29) (tie Gold #4)

12 Broncos (+5.5) 373 (13)

 

13 Texans* 319 (17)

14 Giants (+6.5) 345 (17)

 

15 Dolphins* 665 (32) (Gold #3)

16 Raiders (+3) 420 (19)

 

17 Packers 594 (13)

18 Redskins* (+2.5) 627 (27)

 

19 Vikings* 352 (12)

20 Bills (+16.5) 176 (8)

 

21 Chiefs* 668 (16)

22 49ers (+6.5) 707 (consensus #4) (44) (Gold #2)

 

23 Rams* 484 (17)

24 Chargers (+7) 618 (27)

 

25 Bears 471 (12)

26 Cardinals* (+6) 514 (29) (tie Gold #4)

 

27 Seahawks* 806 (consensus #2) (24)

28 Cowboys (+2) 280 (10)

 

29 Patriots 678 (consensus #5) (16)

30 Lions* (+7) 335 (24)

 

31 Steelers 582 (28)

32 Buccaneers* (+1) 489 (14)

The top-five consensus in the traditional SuperContest is the New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, and New England Patriots.

The top-five consensus took it on the chin last week by going 0-5. Overall, the consensus was just 4-12 last week. That’s how you get a week with a winning percentage under 40 percent and an average score of 1.93 points per entry. The top-five consensus is now 4-6 on the year and the consensus is 10-21-1.

The top-five consensus in the SuperContest Gold is the New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, and Baltimore Ravens.

The top-five in the Gold went 1-5 last week because the Eagles and Giants tied with the fifth-most selections. As a result, the Gold top-five is now 4-6-1 on the season. The overall consensus is 16-13-1, as Falcons/Eagles Week 1 and Ravens/Bengals Week 2 had the same number of picks.

Follow along with our SuperContest picks every week at BangTheBook.com in this Saturday article and with the BangTheBook Podcast entry on Fridays during the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

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