NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 2

Last Updated: 2018-09-15

supercontest week 2Like a golf major, you can’t win the Westgate SuperContest in the first round, but you can certainly lose it. If we think about the rounds of the SuperContest as the quarters of the NFL season, it is absolutely paramount to get off to a good start in the “first round”. Weeks 1 through 4 are critically important because we’re all finding out about these teams but also because making up ground in a contest with 3,123 entrants is really difficult to do.

Fortunately, we got off to a pretty solid start across the board in Week 1 and we’re hoping for more of the same in Week 2. It was a good start for the contest field overall. Week 2 is always one of the more fascinating weeks of the season because we see some players preying on overreactions from Week 1 to Week 2 and we see others falling victim to recency bias with what they saw last weekend. The consensus is intriguing every week, but especially this one.

As a refresher, the SuperContest is the hardest simplest contest in the world. The rules are the simple part. Pick five games against the spread each week in the NFL. The lines come out on Wednesday and they do not move. It doesn’t matter if Aaron Rodgers slams his hand in a car door or if Patrick Peterson slips on a rug and breaks his tailbone. The lines are set and they do not move based on injury or betting market moves.

The hard part is the mental anguish that comes along with handicapping the games and locking in five picks. It can be very hard to get to five picks in the NFL, especially when there are eight teams on byes and only five games to pick from. It can also be hard to make that final call on the last game or two. You can second guess yourself into a very anxious mood before the games even kick off.

This season, there are 3,123 entrants in the field in the traditional SuperContest and 128 in the SuperContest Gold. Both are records, though the Gold just started last year with 94 contestants. The traditional SuperContest had 2,748 brave souls last year. This year’s first-place prize is over $1.44 million and the top 100 will be paid, which is a change compared to last year when they top 50 were paid.

The entry fee is $1500 for the traditional and $5000 for the winner-take-all Gold.

My original post last week had some accounting errors upon a second calculation, so here are the results. The field went 8391-6066-1063 last week for a 58.04 percent success rate. The top four consensus plays all hit the board and accounted for 4031 of the 8391 correct picks.

The SuperContest Gold field went 347-240-43 for a 59.11 percent success rate. There were 19 people that did not submit picks for the traditional SuperContest and two that did not for the Gold.

We have two traditional entries here at BangTheBook, with the appropriately-named BangTheBook entry and BangTheBook Podcast, which belongs to host Adam Burke on BangTheBook Radio. You can hear his SuperContest thoughts every Friday. This week, he broke down the card and the contest with Wes Reynolds. We also have a SuperContest Gold entry, also appropriately named as BangTheBook.com.

The SuperContest Gold entry went 4-0-1 last week to leave us in a tie for second place after the first round of games. The BangTheBook traditional SuperContest entry went 3-1-1 and the BangTheBook Podcast entry went 2-2-1.

Here are our picks for Week 2:

BangTheBook (3-1-1)

4 Colts +6

11 Texans PK

16 Dolphins +2.5

17 Eagles -3.5

31 Bears -3.5

 

BangTheBook Podcast (2-2-1)

11 Texans PK

13 Steelers -4

16 Dolphins +2.5

17 Eagles -3.5

19 Saints -8.5

 

BangTheBook.com (Gold) (4-0-1)

9 Chargers -7

11 Texans PK

16 Dolphins +2.5

17 Eagles -3.5

31 Bears -3.5

The Chargers only appear on the Gold entry, which is a little bit unique, since that entry will usually be an amalgamation of the two traditional entries, but there was a difference of opinion on the Steelers, Colts, and Saints between the two parties and the Chargers were talked about extensively early in the week, so they made the cut at -7.

This was a tough week with a lot of people on the injury reports. Green Bay stunningly opened +7 with the status of Aaron Rodgers up in the air and no line in the market. The Westgate took a position suggesting that Rodgers won’t be playing. The betting markets still aren’t sure. Marcus Mariota was also questionable at the time the Westgate posted SuperContest lines and hung pick ‘em on the Texans vs. Titans game. It is -2 or -2.5 with Houston a road favorite in the betting market.

Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 2 (Gold in parentheses; * denotes home team):

1 Ravens 238 (8)

2 Bengals* (PK) 182 (8)

 

3 Redskins* 399 (12)

4 Colts (+6) 680 (20)

 

5 Falcons* 471 (22)

6 Panthers (+6) 540 (18)

 

7 Vikings 165 (4)

8 Packers* (+7) 580 (38) (Gold #3)

 

9 Chargers 781 (19)

10 Bills* (+7) 180 (7)

 

11 Texans 1514 (consensus #1) (67) (Gold #1)

12 Titans* (PK) 80 (7)

 

13 Steelers* 910 (consensus #3) (48) (Gold #2)

14 Chiefs (+4) 425 (11)

 

15 Jets* 613 (18)

16 Dolphins (+2.5) 322 (20)

 

17 Eagles 808 (consensus #5) (29) (tieGold #5)

18 Buccaneers* (+3.5) 254 (15)

 

19 Saints* 675 (26)

20 Browns (+8.5) 145 (8)

 

21 Rams* 536 (19)

22 Cardinals (+12.5) 175 (13)

 

23 49ers* 605 (16)

24 Lions (+6) 297 (18)

 

25 Patriots 902 (consensus #4) (34) (Gold #4)

26 Jaguars* (+1) 388 (24)

 

27 Broncos* 386 (16)

28 Raiders (+6) 273 (13)

 

29 Cowboys* 251 (14)

30 Giants (+3) 933 (consensus #2) (29) (tie Gold #5)

 

31 Bears* 350 (14)

32 Seahawks (+3.5) 537 (25)

 

The top-five consensus is the Houston Texans, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, and Philadelphia Eagles.

The consensus was 6-9-1 last week with a top-five consensus record of 4-1, so the most popular picks won, but the side selected the most in each game was only 6-9-1 with a push between the Broncos and Seahawks at -3.

The top-five Gold consensus is Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Gold consensus was 9-5-1 last week, with Atlanta and Philadelphia having the exact same number of picks. The top-five Gold consensus was 3-1-1, as the Broncos hit the board as a top consensus pick, but pushed against Seattle.

Follow along with our SuperContest picks every week at BangTheBook.com in this Saturday article and with the BangTheBook Podcast entry on Fridays during the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

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