Last Updated: 2017-12-30
The drama for Week 17 of the Westgate SuperContest is something to behold. We’re talking about life-changing results based on the 16 games that are set for the final Sunday of the regular season and the final day of 2017. Somebody’s life is forever going to change for the better. Somebody else’s life is going to forever have a void. I’m talking, of course, about site bragging rights here at BangTheBook.com for the 2017 SuperContest.
Our BangTheBook.com entries enter the final weekend with identical 40-39-1 records. It is impossible to overstate how much these five picks mean in the grand scheme of life. Okay, so I’m being a tad facetious, but this weekend certainly means a lot to me, Adam Burke, as my Bang The Book Podcast entry has the chance to lay claim to being the best in our corner of the market for the first time, in what is my first year doing the contest solo.
Honestly, irrespective of how this weekend plays out, this season has been a disappointment for both of us. Nobody enters the SuperContest hoping to finish barely on the plus side of .500. It’s about making it into the money or showing one of those 56 percent or better seasons if the money is too far out of reach. But, we’ve learned a lot about ourselves and our handicapping this season and hopefully that will lead to better things in the future.
Before I break down what’s at stake in Week 17 and how the picks are dispersed, a few people need some words of thanks. First and foremost, to Ryan, my boss here at BangTheBook.com, thank you for the chance to be a part of the SuperContest again and for giving us something awesome and interesting to talk about every Friday on BangTheBook Radio. To our proxy, Vegas Matty of FootballContest.com, who always answers texts and emails promptly and was flawless in putting in our picks for another season. To all of you readers for taking an interest in what we’re doing in the SuperContest and for sticking with us throughout the season in spite of some lackluster results. To Sports Cheetah, Joe Everett, and Collin Wilson for joining me at various points throughout the year to break down the NFL betting cards with me on the SuperContest segment.
While site bragging rights are certainly important around these parts, we’re talking about a lot of cold, hard cash this weekend. Grannys Boy has 57.5 points and leads the SuperContest by 2.5 points over HowDoIPlay XX. Biosoft Global is three points off the pace and stands alone in third place. Schematic Advantage trails by 3.5 and stands alone in fourth. There is a two-way tie for fifth between Grand Dragon and Biosoft Sports with 53 points. Those are the only entries that can win the $1,327,284 first-place prize. Nearly $531,000 will go to second place. The top nine finishers will take home at least six figures for their efforts, though ties could create some interesting splits.
The top 50 finishers plus ties are in the money with 49 points heading into Week 17. Obviously there are a lot of entries a half-point or a point out of the money and we’ll certainly see some movement there.
On the SuperContest Gold side, $470,000 is on the line this week. This winner-take-all inaugural event comes down to the final week with a lot of entries in contention. Stag Capital leads with 48 points. Midwest Square and BKSF are tied for second with 47.5 points. BrettFavre444 has 47 points and stands alone in fourth. Four entries are tied for fifth with 45 points.
We also have $15,000 on the line in the Mini Contest. Singh Sports, Prophets of Profits (best name contender), and Sunshine Smokers are tied atop that list with a 9-0-1 record over the last two weeks. A whole bunch of entries are at 9-1 and 8-1-1. This prize will obviously be split in the event of a tie. There are also additional financial bonuses for entrants that finish over 67 percent for the season. There are five entries at that point right now.
Overall, we sit at 104,660 winners, 103,997 losers, and 7,723 pushes in the SuperContest. That is a success rate of 50.16 percent. Week 17 is clearly a hard one with so much variance and volatility possible because of teams resting players, vastly different motivations, and weather considerations, but we should finish north of 50 percent this season. The SuperContest Gold is at 3,540 winners, 3,471 losers, and 279 pushes for a 50.49 percent success rate. It isn’t a surprise to see the Gold doing better than the traditional, but this is probably a smaller gap than expected.
With that, here is our final set of picks for the 2017 Westgate SuperContest:
10122 BangTheBook.com (40-39-1, 50.63%)
7 FALCONS -3.5
19 REDSKINS -3
26 RAIDERS +7.5
29 BRONCOS -3.5
31 49ERS -3
10124 Bang The Book Podcast (40-39-1, 50.63%)
7 FALCONS -3.5
12 JAGUARS +3
15 COLTS -3.5
21 VIKINGS -11.5
28 CARDINALS +9.5
Host Adam Burke talked about playing the Chiefs on BangTheBook Radio during the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment on Friday, but the Chiefs have a lot of running back concerns with Charcandrick West and Akeem Hunt both questionable. With a new QB in Pat Mahomes, that was a lot to overlook. It was one of the rare times that a game classified as a pick did not make the card this season, but it’s to be expected in Week 17 with late announcements.
In any event, we’ve got one matching pick and no opposite sides, so a tie is possible if both entries go 2-2 on their remaining picks. The Chiefs would have eliminated that possibility, but they did not make Adam’s card. Be sure to hear his thoughts on this week’s segment.
Nothing can be done about this, but I would like to voice a complaint. We’re talking about a lot of money at stake this week. The difference between winning and finishing fifth, barring ties, is over $1.1 million. I understand the nature of contests. I understand that we really can’t do anything about what happens in Week 17, but to be at the mercy of variance is such a challenge. Obviously, as bettors, we’re at the mercy of variance every week, but there are so many more unknowns this week with backups and playoff scenarios and all of that. You can argue that incorporating them into the handicapping process is a must and that we have a lot of information available, but something just rubs me the wrong way about how volatile Week 17 is and how much it matters in the SuperContest. Would it be better if the SuperContest ran from Week 1 to Week 16? Maybe. You still have these same concerns in Weeks 15 and 16, but they are certainly lessened in a variety of ways.
Anyway, we head into a challenging Week 17 card with a lot of money on the line for some and a sigh of relief for others that the SuperContest is over and the slate is wiped clean for 2018.
Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 17:
1 Ravens* 255 (9)
2 Bengals (+9.5) 137 (17)
3 Lions* 369 (13)
4 Packers (+6.5) 234 (8)
5 Bills 457 (10)
6 Dolphins* (+2.5) 369 (19) (tie consensus #4)
7 Falcons* 410 (15)
8 Panthers (+3.5) 585 (consensus #4) (19) (tie consensus #4)
9 Saints 431 (13)
10 Buccaneers* (+7) 312 (17)
11 Titans* 364 (9)
12 Jaguars (+3) 460 (18)
13 Patriots* 220 (14)
14 Jets (+15.5) 372 (9)
15 Colts* 583 (consensus #5) (21) (consensus #3)
16 Texans (+3.5) 121 (9)
17 Steelers* 240 (8)
18 Browns (+11) 666 (consensus #2) (26) (consensus #1)
19 Redskins 596 (consensus #3) (14)
20 Giants* (+3) 179 (4)
21 Vikings* 379 (10)
22 Bears (+11.5) 243 (6)
23 Cowboys 371 (9)
24 Eagles* (+3) 251 (9)
25 Chargers* 300 (10)
26 Raiders (+7.5) 393 (13)
27 Seahawks* 256 (6)
28 Cardinals (+9.5) 402 (15)
29 Broncos* 189 (6)
30 Chiefs (+3.5) 352 (18)
31 49ers 1045 (consensus #1) (25) (consensus #2)
32 Rams (+3) 189 (6)
The top-five consensus is the San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Carolina Panthers, and Indianapolis Colts.
We see some intriguing line value on the board, with the Browns +11 in the SuperContest, but +6 or +6.5 in the betting market. The Colts have gone from -3.5 up to -5.5 or -6 with DeAndre Hopkins out for the Texans. The Rams are up to +4 against the 49ers while sitting everybody. Just another set of considerations in a week full of them. Trying to find teams to trust this week was not easy, hence the distribution of the picks. As you can see, we have a lot of entrants that didn’t bother in Week 17 since they have no reason to pick games other than pride. For those entries, pride went out the window a long time ago.
Follow along each week with our SuperContest preview article on Saturday and our recap article on Tuesday. We’ll look to do a SuperContest wrap-up segment on Friday this week and tie a bow on what has been an interesting 2017 tournament.
-END OF 2017 WEEK 17 PREVIEW-
As 2016 comes to an end, 2017 begins with a Week 17 slate full of intrigue. No matter the playoff scenarios and situations in the NFL, there’s always something to be decided in the Westgate SuperContest. This season, everything is on the line. The full-season contest comes down to this week and so does the Mini Contest. The top 50 entries plus ties will get compensated for their efforts over this test of handicapping wills from the prize pool of over $2.5 million. The top record(s) in the $20,000 Mini Contest will have something to show for their strong showing over the final three weeks.
Before I dive into our picks, the picks for the field as a whole, and other minutia, I need to take a few minutes to thank some people. First, to our site creator Ryan for the wonderful opportunity to be part of this great event for the second straight season. It’s an honor and a privilege. Second, to my SuperContest entry partner Cole Ryan. It’s been a tough season for us in a lot of ways, but I appreciate the banter and the hard work that you put in each and every week. Third, to our SuperContest proxy Vegas Matty of FootballContest.com. It can be stressful to be responsible for the correct entry of dozens of SuperContest selections and your efforts are very much appreciated. Finally, to our BangTheBook.com readers and radio show listeners. Though things didn’t go as hoped, I appreciate each and every one of you that have followed along throughout the season and I wish you and your families and friends a prosperous and healthy New Year.
It’s going to be a stressful Sunday for everybody with a chance at some winnings. Orange Crush leads the way with 52.5 points. BNEV and Greybeard are tied for second place with 51 points. There are nine entries with 50.5 points. One entry has 50 points. Eight entries have 49.5 points. Seven entries have 49 points. Ten entries have 48.5 points. The cut-off for the money is 48 points and there are a lot of entries with that magic number.
J Reno and Team NESN are tied for the Mini Contest lead with 9-0-1 records. Three others are 9-1 over the last two weeks. Five entries are 8-1-1 and a lot of entries are 8-2. If there is a tie for the Mini Contest, the entries will split the $20,000 prize. If not, somebody is $20,000 richer…before taxes, of course.
Before we look at our SuperContest picks for the final week, let’s take a look at how the field has done this season week-by-week and overall:
Week 1 – 52.62%
Week 2 – 45.18%
Week 3 – 40.19%
Week 4 – 42.76%
Week 5 – 53.95%
Week 6 – 55.01%
Week 7 – 51.36%
Week 8 – 51.50%
Week 9 – 45.80%
Week 10 – 40.67%
Week 11 – 55.40%
Week 12 – 58.63%
Week 13 – 51.75%
Week 14 – 56.57%
Week 15 – 52.44%
Week 16 – 48.00%
The contest field is 70,693-70,733-4,654 for a 49.99 percent success rate.
As we put the finishing touches on our 7226 BangTheBook.com and 7227 BangTheBook Podcast entries, we don’t have a shot at the money. Nevertheless, each week is a point of pride and we’re still putting in as much work in Week 17 as we did in Week 1 or Week 8 or Week 12. The fact of the matter is that we don’t quit in this event and never will.
Without further adieu, here are the Week 17 selections for our two entries:
7226 BangTheBook.com (43-35-2, 55.13%)
3 BILLS -3.5
10 LIONS +3.5
12 JAGUARS +4.5
13 EAGLES -4
16 BEARS +5
7227 BangTheBook Podcast (37-41-2, 47.44%)
16 BEARS +5
17 BUCCANEERS -6
19 STEELERS -6
22 SAINTS +6.5
28 CHARGERS +6
For more insight on the BangTheBook Podcast selections, we encourage you to listen to this week’s Westgate SuperContest Selections segment from the December 30 edition of BangTheBook Radio. The guys included additional thoughts on every other game in the Rapid Fire Rundown segment.
This is a really interesting week in a lot of ways. The entries playing for the money have to pick winners, obviously, but also have to consider trying to fade the consensus or get creative with their selections. There are also a lot of teams with nothing to play for in the NFL this week and motivation is a hard thing to determine. We’ll have to see how it all plays out, but it won’t lack drama.
With the stage set and the standings covered, here’s a look at the Week 17 pick counts (top-five consensus in bold):
Houston (+3.5) 244
New York Jets (+3.5) 178
Baltimore (+2) 389 (consensus #4)
New York Giants (+7.5) 318
Green Bay 538 (consensus #1)
Detroit (+3.5) 405 (consensus #3)
Jacksonville (+4.5) 184
Dallas (+4) 168
Chicago (+5) 180
Tampa Bay 134
Carolina (+6) 350
Cleveland (+6) 140
New Orleans (+6.5) 313
New England 172
Miami (+9.5) 417 (consensus #2)
Los Angeles (+6) 101
Kansas City 320
San Diego (+6) 271
San Francisco (+9.5) 102
Denver 374 (consensus #5)
Oakland (+1) 221
The top five consensus is the Green Bay Packers, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Denver Broncos. With opposite top-five consensus sides, the top-five consensus is guaranteed to finish below .500 for the season. It’s not a surprise to see a lot of people piling on the only game with really significant “win or go home” ramifications.
Orange Crush has Washington, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Seattle. BNEV has Detroit, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and San Diego. Greybeard has Baltimore, New Orleans, Miami, Arizona, and Seattle. Things could get very interesting with very few matching teams.
The top-five consensus was 4-1 last week and is now 36-40-4 (47.37%) on the season. The consensus, the most selected sides in each game, is 116-115-7 (50.22%). It was 8-8 last week.
Follow along with us each and every week at BangTheBook.com and also on BangTheBook Radio. Adam Burke and Cole Ryan share general NFL handicapping analysis and free picks on Wednesdays on The Gridiron Gambling Report and then share their SuperContest thoughts and selections on Friday editions of the show.
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