NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 14

 

Last Updated: 2017-08-30

It’s hard to believe that there are only 20 picks left to make in the Westgate SuperContest. It seems like just yesterday, we were poring over the Week 1 card and judging those extra stale lines to see what would give us the best possible start in the 17-week test of attrition that is the world’s premier handicapping contest. Alas, here we are in the middle of December already and the lives of a handful of people are going to change in less than a month because they have cashed in a big payday in the SuperContest.

Everything about sports betting should be focused on the long-term. The closest thing to a get rich quick scheme, aside from a lottery ticket parlay, is the Westgate SuperContest. This year, 1,854 entrants signed on the dotted line to join the world’s most recognizable betting pool. The winner is going to get just shy of $900,000 before taxes. The top 50 plus ties will get some money for their efforts. Others are going to have nothing except a season’s worth of bad memories.

With four weeks left, this marathon is now a sprint. The nice thing is that we still have a runner very much in the race here at BangTheBook.com. It has been a roller coaster ride of a season for most, but the lucky ones that are at the top of the hill looking down are starting to get those anxious feelings.

Each week, we like to look at how we got here, so here are the week-by-week results. Week 1 came in at 52.62 percent, which was a good start and the best week of the contest for more than a month. Week 2 came in at 45.18 percent, with Week 3 at 40.19 percent. That is still the low point of the season. Week 4 checked in at 42.76 percent. Week 5 surpassed Week 1 at 53.95 percent, but its time at the top was short-lived because Week 6 checked in at 55.01 percent. Week 7 came in at 51.36 percent and Week 8 had a 51.5 percent showing. Week 9 and Week 10 came in at 45.8 percent and 40.67 percent, respectively. Since then, we have three straight weeks on the plus side, with Week 11 at 55.4 percent, Week 12 at 58.63 percent, and Week 13 at 51.75 percent. The overall SuperContest record this season is 57,509-58,684-3,177 for a 49.5 percent success rate.

Our 7226 BangTheBook.com entry belongs to our site creator Ryan and he’s so close to the money that he can smell it. A 2-3 week last week was a minor setback that took him from 0.5 points out of the money to a full point out of the money. He is 37-26-2 on the season. Our 7227 BangTheBook Podcast entry has not had as much good fortune with a 30-34-1 record on the season.

One entry is playing for cash and pride and the other is really only playing for pride, at least until the Mini Contest kicks off next week. Regardless, we’re still doing a ton of work each and every week and here are the picks that we have come up with for Week 14:

7226 BangTheBook.com (37-26-2, 58.73%)

8 TEXANS +6

10 BROWNS* +5.5

14 CARDINALS +1

16 BEARS +7.5

22 EAGLES* +1

7227 BangTheBook Podcast (30-34-1, 46.86%)

3 TITANS -1

13 DOLPHINS -1

20 SAINTS +2.5

26 PACKERS +2.5

31 PATRIOTS -7

For more insight on the BangTheBook Podcast selections, we encourage you to listen to this week’s Westgate SuperContest Selections segment from the December 9 edition of BangTheBook Radio. The guys included additional thoughts on every other game in the Rapid Fire Rundown segment.

Things are very tight at the top of the SuperContest standings. Mac Sports Inc. has sole possession of first place following a 5-0 showing last week. Mac has 44 points. There is a three-way tie for second place between Mark Davis/Janknation, two separate entries run by the same person, and skinknee.com. BNEV, who was the leader heading into Week 12, is now a point off the pace with 43 points. Pocket Kings also has 43 points. Morley the 15th, who had the lead entering Week 13, is now tied for seventh with four other entries with 42 points. Redwine has 41.5 points and stands alone in 12th place. Eight entries have 41 points. Four entries have 40.5 points. Ten entries have 40 points. Eleven have 39.5 and 19 entries have 39 points, which is the current cut-off for the money. The top 50 plus ties walk away with some cash.

Many of those that have not been sending picks for a while will get back into it for the start of the Mini Contest next week. The best record over the final three weeks of the season with win $20,000. If multiple entries are tied, they will split the money. A record of 14-1 has won in each of the last two years.

Before we get to Week 15, we have to get through Week 14. Here are the lines and the pick counts (top-five consensus in bold):

Kansas City WIN 150

Oakland (+3) 107

Tennessee 321

Denver (+1) 365

Carolina 234

San Diego (+1.5) 171

Indianapolis 262

Houston (+6) 281

Cincinnati 268

Cleveland (+5.5) 305

Pittsburgh 558 (consensus #2)

Buffalo (+1.5) 249

Miami 238

Arizona (+1) 405

Detroit 220

Chicago (+7.5) 215

Minnesota 420 (consensus #5)

Jacksonville (+3) 107

Tampa Bay 440 (consensus #4)

New Orleans (+2.5) 282

Washington 481 (consensus #3)

Philadelphia (+1) 182

San Francisco 141

New York Jets (+2.5) 64

Seattle 222

Green Bay (+2.5) 408

Atlanta 273

Los Angeles (+6) 150

Dallas 399

New York Giants (+3) 295

New England 155

Baltimore (+7) 577 (consensus #1)

The top-five consensus is the Baltimore Ravens, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Washington Redskins, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Minnesota Vikings.

The top-five consensus went 3-2 last week to improve to 26-37-2, which is just a 41.27 percent record of success. The consensus, the sides with the most picks in each game, is 91-93-5, which is 49.46 percent. Pittsburgh vs. Washington in Week 1 and Detroit vs. Houston in Week 8 tied in picks.

Follow along with us each and every week at BangTheBook.com and also on BangTheBook Radio. Adam Burke and Cole Ryan share general NFL handicapping analysis and free picks on Wednesdays on The Gridiron Gambling Report and then share their SuperContest thoughts and selections on Friday editions of the show.

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