Last Updated: 2017-08-30
The weather may be getting colder, but things are really heating up in the 2016 Westgate SuperContest. We’re in the final full month of the NFL regular season and there are only five weeks left in the world’s ultimate handicapping test. It’s no longer a marathon, it’s more like a five-mile sprint for the contest players in the money or with a shot at the money.
Fortunately, we here at BangTheBook.com have a runner still very much in the race.
Hopefully none of the entrants at the top of the SuperContest standings are claustrophobic because things are so tight that it’s hard to breathe. It just so happens that the SuperContest field is coming off of two of its best weeks of the season, so the drama is mounting, and so are the nerves, as we head into Week 13. This season, 1,854 entrants put down $1,500 and associated expenses to join the field. Some of them are going to be very happy. Most of them are not.
As always, we like to look at the ebbs and flows of the SuperContest so far. Right now, the collective handicappers are riding above the waves. In chronological order, the field started out at 52.62 percent in Week 1. Week 2 dropped to 45.18 percent and Week 3 remains the worst week of the year at 40.19 percent. Week 4 came in at 42.76 percent. Four straight weeks in the black followed with Week 5 at 53.95 percent, Week 6 at 55.01 percent, Week 7 at 51.36 percent, and Week 8 at 51.5 percent. Weeks 9 and 10 were ugly at 45.8 percent and 40.67 percent. Week 11 was the high point of the season to date at 55.4 percent. Week 12 was very strong at 58.63 percent and featured the first top-five consensus 5-0 of the year. The year-to-date record sits at 52,828-54,320-3,177 for a 49.3 percent rate of success. We jumped up 0.8 percent last week, so there’s a chance that the field gets over the .500 mark this week.
Our 7226 BangTheBook.com entry owned by Ryan, our site creator and fearless leader sits at 35-23-2. That total of 36 points is just a half-point out of the money going into Week 13. Right now, the entrants with 36.5 points would each take home $639.63, which is obviously well below the entry fee and the other costs, but to make the money in this contest is a real honor and a testament to some great handicapping. Ryan went 4-1 last week.
Our 7227 BangTheBook Podcast entry has had some bad beats and some bad luck, but there has also been some bad handicapping. Last week, the handicapping was on point with a 4-0-1 week. The elusive 5-0 went up in flames with Oakland’s collapse against Carolina, but the Raiders managed to hold on for a push. That entry, which belongs to BangTheBook Radio host Adam Burke and his partner Cole Ryan, is 28-31-1 on the season with 28.5 points.
Every week is huge for us here at BangTheBook now. Here are the Week 13 selections:
7226 BangTheBook.com (35-23-2, 60.34%)
4 JAGUARS +4
10 BENGALS PK
20 BILLS +3
21 CHARGERS -3.5
23 CARDINALS -2.5
7227 BangTheBook Podcast (28-31-1, 47.46%)
5 FALCONS -4
12 LIONS +6
20 BILLS +3
21 CHARGERS -3.5
27 SEAHAWKS -6.5
There are no opposite sides here this week. That means a 10-0 is a possibility, so let’s go get it!
For more insight on the BangTheBook Podcast selections, we encourage you to listen to this week’s Westgate SuperContest Selections segment from the December 2 edition of BangTheBook Radio. The guys included additional thoughts on every other game in the Rapid Fire Rundown segment.
As mentioned above, there is zero margin for error in the money right now. Morley the 15th leads the way with 41 points after a 5-0 week last week. Janknation and Mark Davis, entries owned by the same person, have 40.5 points. Orange Crush, Pocket Kings, and UncleBobN4Brothers all have 40 points. Skinknee.com stands along with 39.5 points. Just Cover Baby, BNEV, Donnelly, Mac Sports Inc., and Vegasportsline.com have 39 points. Redwine has 38.5 points. Five entries have 38 points. Ten entries have 37.5 points. Seventeen entries have 37 points. Twenty entries have 36.5 points. The top 50 plus ties make it into the money in this contest.
Here are the lines and the pick counts for Week 13 (top-five consensus in bold):
Minnesota (+3) WIN 121
Jacksonville (+4) 290
Atlanta 516 (consensus #2)
Kansas City (+4) 338
Green Bay 447 (consensus #4)
Houston (+6.5) 165
Cincinnati (PK) 334
New Orleans 259
Detroit (+6) 564 (consensus #1)
San Francisco (+1) 294
New England 145
Los Angeles (+13.5) 234
Miami (+3) 267
Buffalo (+3) 396
San Diego 269
Tampa Bay (+3.5) 325
Washington (+2.5) 408
New York Giants (+6.5) 515 (consensus #3)
Seattle 417 (consensus #5)
Carolina (+6.5) 151
New York Jets (+2) 196
The top-five consensus is the Detroit Lions, the Atlanta Falcons, the New York Giants, the Green Bay Packers, and the Seattle Seahawks.
The Thursday Night Football pick counts were very interesting, as the Mike Zimmer news about his emergency eye surgery broke late and may have enticed more people to take Dallas. It’s also interesting to point out that 221 people started out the week with a quick 0-1. The Buffalo/Oakland matchup has the smallest spread at just 17 picks.
The top-five consensus went 5-0 last week to improve to 23-35-2 (39.66%). The overall consensus record, which is made up of the sides with the most picks in each individual game, is 83-86-5 (49.11%). The Week 1 Monday Night Football game between Pittsburgh and Washington tied in picks and so did the Detroit and Houston game in Week 8.
Follow along with us each and every week at BangTheBook.com and also on BangTheBook Radio. Adam Burke and Cole Ryan share general NFL handicapping analysis and free picks on Wednesdays on The Gridiron Gambling Report and then share their SuperContest thoughts and selections on Friday editions of the show.