Last Updated: 2017-12-02
Only 25 picks remain in the 2017 Westgate SuperContest. We’re two weeks from the start of the Mini Contest, which is a chance for those that are out of the money to get a little bit of scratch for their efforts with a three-week sprint in which the best record out of 15 picks gets $15,000. The drama and the importance of each and every decision increases from this point forward for all of those with a shot at cashing and especially for those near the top of the leaderboard.
Twenty-five picks is still enough time for a lot of people to make a move, but the margin for error is extremely thin. That holds true for us here at BangTheBook.com. The BangTheBook.com entry holds bragging rights with a 30-29-1 record over the Bang The Book Podcast entry with a 28-32 record. It has been an up-and-down NFL season for a lot of people and that rings true for our two entries. We just haven’t been able to string together those weeks that it takes to be up near the top in a field this big and a competition this tight.
A record number of entrants, 2,748 to be exact, slapped down the $1,500 plus additional expenses like a proxy and travel to Las Vegas to sign up in person, to participate in this year’s SuperContest. Life-changing money is on the line for first place, with over $1.3 million, before taxes of course, going to the winner. Second place nets nearly $531,000 and third place gets over $265,000. Over $4.1 million was collected and the prize pool is $3,792,240 because of an eight percent admin fee taken from every entry. The top 50 plus ties get a piece.
As we go into Week 13, Grannys Boy holds the top spot in the traditional SuperContest with 41.5 points. Biosoft Global is second with 41 points. The Ville, Seoul Cycle, and Grand Dragon are tied for third with 40 points. HowDoIPlay XX stands alone in sixth place with 39.5 points. Winston Platinum, Team 1482, Tappakeggaodo, Biosoft Sports, and 3TimeCHRM are all tied for seventh with 39 points. The cut-off for the money is 36.5 points, which equates to 61 percent. Think about that. Going 60 percent over 12 weeks and 60 selections isn’t good enough to be in the money.
The inaugural SuperContest Gold has gotten very interesting at this point. A new leader took the top spot last week in the winner-take-all $5,000 buy-in. There were 94 entrants, so players are shooting for the $470,000 grand prize. BKSF had been the leader since Week 2 with a 9-1 start, but last week’s 0-5 record allowed BrettFavre444 to slide into first place by 0.5 points.
On the season, the traditional SuperContest sits at 49.23 percent with a record of 78,289-80,735-4,376. The SuperContest Gold is at 49.33 percent with a record of 2,654-2,726-165.
Both of our entries avoided Thursday games this week, so we had some additional time to make our decisions than we had the previous two weeks. It certainly helps that we have a traditional NFL schedule this week instead of bye weeks and three Thursday games. Hopefully that will lead to some better fortunes as we look to finish with as many points as possible.
Here are our Week 13 SuperContest picks:
10122 BangTheBook.com (30-29-1, 50.85%)
10 BILLS +8.5
14 TEXANS +6.5
20 JETS +3.5
21 SAINTS -4
30 SEAHAWKS +6
10124 Bang The Book Podcast (28-32, 46.67%)
3 RAVENS -2.5
18 PACKERS +1.5
20 JETS +3.5
26 CARDINALS +7
32 BENGALS +5
Favorites have been cashing at an extremely high rate this season, but eight of our 10 picks this week are dogs that we hope have a lot of bark and a lot of bite. That has been an ongoing struggle this season. Traditionally, going contrarian and playing a lot of ugly underdogs is the way to have a good NFL season. A lot of the traditional handicapping methods have not worked out favorably. There may not be a reversal of fortunes in that regard this season with teams tanking for draft positioning and some teams just outright quitting on the season. We may remember this NFL season for a very long time as the one that changed the market.
Favorites are 54-22-7 ATS since Week 7 and went 12-2 against the number last week. Sharper players are taking it on the chin, while public bettors are thinking about how easy this NFL betting thing is. Again, not to make excuses, but this is traditionally the opposite of what we see in the NFL and that’s why a lot of sharper minds are struggling.
Dogs are, however, off to a 1-0 start with Dallas’s outright win and cover, so maybe that’s a sign of things to come this weekend.
You can hear thoughts, picks, and analysis with host Adam Burke of the Bang The Book Podcast entry and this week’s guest Joe Everett from NFL Draft Bible on the Friday edition of BangTheBook Radio.
The SuperContest field has had three really strong showings out of the last four weeks, with success rates of 57.22 percent, 58.69 percent, and 53.07 percent. Week 10 was the outlier at 44.82 percent. The consensus, the most selected side in each game, now sits at 75-94-6 for the season and the top-five consensus is 26-34. In terms of the Gold contest, the consensus is 80-86-6 with a 29-30-1 record for the five most selected sides each week.
Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 13:
1 Redskins 265 (7)
2 Cowboys* 117 (+1.5) (9) WIN
3 Ravens* 485 (21) (Gold #4)
4 Lions (+2.5) 479 (16)
5 Bears* 283 (8)
6 49ers (+3) 509 (14)
7 Falcons* 492 (19) (tie Gold #5)
8 Vikings (+3) 744 (consensus #4) (19) (tie Gold #5)
9 Patriots 605 (consensus #5) (15)
10 Bills* (+8.5) 401 (18)
11 Broncos 207 (3)
12 Dolphins* (+1.5) 257 (6)
13 Titans* 303 (12)
14 Texans (+6.5) 240 (13)
15 Jaguars* 281 (8)
16 Colts (+9.5) 302 (10)
17 Buccaneers 124 (4)
18 Packers* (+1.5) 1016 (consensus #1) (41) (Gold #1)
19 Chiefs 386 (14)
20 Jets* (+3.5) 525 (13)
21 Saints* 829 (consensus #3) (23) (Gold #3)
22 Panthers (+4) 366 (12)
23 Chargers* 312 (8)
24 Browns (+14) 299 (14)
25 Rams 484 (7)
26 Cardinals* (+7) 354 (13)
27 Raiders* 398 (9)
28 Giants (+8.5) 149 (7)
29 Eagles 444 (8)
30 Seahawks (+6) 880 (consensus #2) (40) (Gold #2)
31 Steelers 534 (13)
32 Bengals (+5) 315 (11)
The top-five consensus is the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, and New England Patriots. The top three consensus plays are the same in both contests.
Games with consensus differences are Rams/Cardinals, Chargers/Browns, Chiefs/Jets, Titans/Texans, and Patriots/Bills.
There were some interesting line value grabs in the market this week for those that wanted to hop on board. Baltimore went up to a full -3 by the time picks needed to go in. The Jaguars are mostly -10 across the market. The Jets are down to +3, but there is still extra juice on the Chiefs. The Saints are up to -5.5 at a few shops. The Eagles peaked at -6, but have gradually come back down to -5. The biggest one, however, which led to the Packers in the consensus is that Green Bay has gone from +1.5 early in the week to -2.5 out in the marketplace.
Follow along each week with our SuperContest preview article on Saturday and our recap article on Tuesday. Check out our Friday editions of BangTheBook Radio for the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment with host Adam Burke discussing his picks and thought processes for the upcoming weekend.
-END OF 2017 WEEK 13 UPDATE-
The weather may be getting colder, but things are really heating up in the 2016 Westgate SuperContest. We’re in the final full month of the NFL regular season and there are only five weeks left in the world’s ultimate handicapping test. It’s no longer a marathon, it’s more like a five-mile sprint for the contest players in the money or with a shot at the money.
Fortunately, we here at BangTheBook.com have a runner still very much in the race.
Hopefully none of the entrants at the top of the SuperContest standings are claustrophobic because things are so tight that it’s hard to breathe. It just so happens that the SuperContest field is coming off of two of its best weeks of the season, so the drama is mounting, and so are the nerves, as we head into Week 13. This season, 1,854 entrants put down $1,500 and associated expenses to join the field. Some of them are going to be very happy. Most of them are not.
As always, we like to look at the ebbs and flows of the SuperContest so far. Right now, the collective handicappers are riding above the waves. In chronological order, the field started out at 52.62 percent in Week 1. Week 2 dropped to 45.18 percent and Week 3 remains the worst week of the year at 40.19 percent. Week 4 came in at 42.76 percent. Four straight weeks in the black followed with Week 5 at 53.95 percent, Week 6 at 55.01 percent, Week 7 at 51.36 percent, and Week 8 at 51.5 percent. Weeks 9 and 10 were ugly at 45.8 percent and 40.67 percent. Week 11 was the high point of the season to date at 55.4 percent. Week 12 was very strong at 58.63 percent and featured the first top-five consensus 5-0 of the year. The year-to-date record sits at 52,828-54,320-3,177 for a 49.3 percent rate of success. We jumped up 0.8 percent last week, so there’s a chance that the field gets over the .500 mark this week.
Our 7226 BangTheBook.com entry owned by Ryan, our site creator and fearless leader sits at 35-23-2. That total of 36 points is just a half-point out of the money going into Week 13. Right now, the entrants with 36.5 points would each take home $639.63, which is obviously well below the entry fee and the other costs, but to make the money in this contest is a real honor and a testament to some great handicapping. Ryan went 4-1 last week.
Our 7227 BangTheBook Podcast entry has had some bad beats and some bad luck, but there has also been some bad handicapping. Last week, the handicapping was on point with a 4-0-1 week. The elusive 5-0 went up in flames with Oakland’s collapse against Carolina, but the Raiders managed to hold on for a push. That entry, which belongs to BangTheBook Radio host Adam Burke and his partner Cole Ryan, is 28-31-1 on the season with 28.5 points.
Every week is huge for us here at BangTheBook now. Here are the Week 13 selections:
7226 BangTheBook.com (35-23-2, 60.34%)
4 JAGUARS +4
10 BENGALS PK
20 BILLS +3
21 CHARGERS -3.5
23 CARDINALS -2.5
7227 BangTheBook Podcast (28-31-1, 47.46%)
5 FALCONS -4
12 LIONS +6
20 BILLS +3
21 CHARGERS -3.5
27 SEAHAWKS -6.5
There are no opposite sides here this week. That means a 10-0 is a possibility, so let’s go get it!
For more insight on the BangTheBook Podcast selections, we encourage you to listen to this week’s Westgate SuperContest Selections segment from the December 2 edition of BangTheBook Radio. The guys included additional thoughts on every other game in the Rapid Fire Rundown segment.
As mentioned above, there is zero margin for error in the money right now. Morley the 15th leads the way with 41 points after a 5-0 week last week. Janknation and Mark Davis, entries owned by the same person, have 40.5 points. Orange Crush, Pocket Kings, and UncleBobN4Brothers all have 40 points. Skinknee.com stands along with 39.5 points. Just Cover Baby, BNEV, Donnelly, Mac Sports Inc., and Vegasportsline.com have 39 points. Redwine has 38.5 points. Five entries have 38 points. Ten entries have 37.5 points. Seventeen entries have 37 points. Twenty entries have 36.5 points. The top 50 plus ties make it into the money in this contest.
Here are the lines and the pick counts for Week 13 (top-five consensus in bold):
Minnesota (+3) WIN 121
Jacksonville (+4) 290
Atlanta 516 (consensus #2)
Kansas City (+4) 338
Green Bay 447 (consensus #4)
Houston (+6.5) 165
Cincinnati (PK) 334
New Orleans 259
Detroit (+6) 564 (consensus #1)
San Francisco (+1) 294
New England 145
Los Angeles (+13.5) 234
Miami (+3) 267
Buffalo (+3) 396
San Diego 269
Tampa Bay (+3.5) 325
Washington (+2.5) 408
New York Giants (+6.5) 515 (consensus #3)
Seattle 417 (consensus #5)
Carolina (+6.5) 151
New York Jets (+2) 196
The top-five consensus is the Detroit Lions, the Atlanta Falcons, the New York Giants, the Green Bay Packers, and the Seattle Seahawks.
The Thursday Night Football pick counts were very interesting, as the Mike Zimmer news about his emergency eye surgery broke late and may have enticed more people to take Dallas. It’s also interesting to point out that 221 people started out the week with a quick 0-1. The Buffalo/Oakland matchup has the smallest spread at just 17 picks.
The top-five consensus went 5-0 last week to improve to 23-35-2 (39.66%). The overall consensus record, which is made up of the sides with the most picks in each individual game, is 83-86-5 (49.11%). The Week 1 Monday Night Football game between Pittsburgh and Washington tied in picks and so did the Detroit and Houston game in Week 8.
Follow along with us each and every week at BangTheBook.com and also on BangTheBook Radio. Adam Burke and Cole Ryan share general NFL handicapping analysis and free picks on Wednesdays on The Gridiron Gambling Report and then share their SuperContest thoughts and selections on Friday editions of the show.
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