Last Updated: 2017-08-30
A new week is here in the Westgate SuperContest and there could be a lot of interesting developments. A trio of Thursday action could have forced the hands of the contestants into filling out the entire five-play card prior to the holiday. When a Thursday side is selected, the entire card must be submitted in order to have a dog in those weeknight fights. The rush to get all five plays together by Thursday is a calculated risk that pays off for some teams and fails miserably for others. This is the most unique week of the season in that respect, so it could be another week of movement at the top of the standings.
Surprisingly, the Thursday plays went very well.
This year, 1,854 brave souls put down the $1,500 required to enter the Westgate SuperContest, which brands itself as the ultimate football handicapping test. It seemed like an innocuous expression, but the fact is that it does test everything. Friendships with your “business” partners. Your patience. Your skills. Your persistence. And, of course, your handicapping. Sometimes the mental side of this pool is harder than picking the games themselves. The margin for error is thin with a small sample size of 85 picks over 17 weeks. It’s hard to make up ground and consistency is the only way to win.
Last week, the SuperContest participants had their best week of the season. That may be due in part to 30 entrants not sending in picks, but the consensus went 10-3-1 and the field hit north of 55 percent. The results so far this year are as follows. Week 1 came in at 52.62 percent. Week 2 checked in at 45.18 percent. Week 3 remains the worst week of the season at 40.19 percent. Week 4 hit at 42.76 percent. Week 5 came in at 53.95 percent and was the best week to date before Week 6 passed it at 55.01 percent. Week 7 checked in at 51.36 percent and Week 8 at 51.5 percent. Week 9 at 45.8 percent and Week 10 at 40.67 percent were two of the lower points in this contest. Week 11 came in at 55.4 percent, so sustaining momentum will be big this week for the teams that made moves or are at the top. The year-to-date record is now 47,956-50,883-2,451 (48.5%).
Here at BangTheBook.com, we had a couple of 3-2 weeks last week. Ryan, our fearless leader and site creator is just two points out of the money with a 31-22-2 record. Adam Burke and Cole Ryan of the BangTheBook Podcast entry finally had a week on the right side of even with a 3-2 mark of their own. They are now 24-31 on the season.
Here are the BangTheBook selections for Week 12 of the SuperContest:
7226 BangTheBook.com (31-22-2, 58.49%)
7 CHARGERS -1.5
13 RAVENS* -4
16 CARDINALS +4
21 GIANTS -7
28 CHIEFS +3.5
7227 BangTheBook Podcast (24-31 43.64%)
9 TITANS -4.5
12 JAGUARS +7.5
24 BUCCANEERS +6
25 RAIDERS -3
30 JETS +8
There are no opposite sides this week, so we can pull for a site-wide 10-0. That would certainly lift a lot of spirits around here, but especially for Ryan, who is clearly within striking distance of some dollars.
For more insight on the BangTheBook Podcast selections, we encourage you to listen to this week’s Westgate SuperContest Selections segment from the November 25 edition of BangTheBook Radio. The guys included additional thoughts on every other game in the Rapid Fire Rundown segment.
BNEV stands alone in first place with 37 points. Their 5-0 last week was good enough to vault over the five-way tie that was at the top in the SuperContest standings going into Week 11. There are four contestants tied for second with 36.5 between Janknation, Mark Davis, Redwine, and skinknee.com. Five entries are tied with 36 points. Three have 35.5 points and eight have 35 points. So, as you can see, the margin for error is virtually non-existent if you want to finish in the money.
Here is how things shake out for Week 12, with lines and pick counts (top-five consensus in bold):
Detroit WIN 265
Minnesota (+2.5) 235
Washington (+7) WIN 405 (consensus #3)
Pittsburgh WIN 306
Indianapolis (+8) 94
San Diego 356
Houston (+1.5) 333
Tennessee 514 (consensus #1)
Chicago (+4.5) 127
Jacksonville (+7) 178
Baltimore 387 (consensus #4)
Cincinnati (+4) 197
Atlanta 480 (consensus #2)
Arizona (+4) 280
San Francisco (+7.5) 198
New Orleans 319
Los Angeles (+7) 181
New York Giants 344
Cleveland (+7) 220
Tampa Bay (+6) 272
Carolina (+3) 347
Kansas City (+3.5) 380 (consensus #5)
New England 288
New York Jets (+8) 264
Green Bay (+4) 204
The top five consensus is the Tennessee Titans, the Atlanta Falcons, the Washington Redskins, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Kansas City Chiefs.
As expected, the Thursday games really altered a lot of dynamics for this week, as players had to decide whether or not to treat those six teams like they were on a bye week or look for opportunities to take advantage of those that were unwilling to pick those Thanksgiving matchups. Contest players picked the right side in all three games and even made Washington a top-five consensus play.
The top-five consensus is just 18-35-2 on the season so far, which is just 33.96 percent. The overall consensus is 73-81-4, which is also a disappointing figure at 47.4 percent. Two games, PIT/WAS in Week 1 and DET/HOU in Week 8 tied in picks, so we’ve actually seen 160 NFL games played so far, but only 158 show up in the consensus.
Follow along with us each and every week at BangTheBook.com and also on BangTheBook Radio. Adam Burke and Cole Ryan share general NFL handicapping analysis and free picks on Wednesdays on The Gridiron Gambling Report and then share their SuperContest thoughts and selections on Friday editions of the show.