NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 12

Last Updated: 2018-11-24

supercontest week 12 picksThis is one of the hardest weeks in the Westgate SuperContest. This year, the Rams and Chiefs are on a bye at the same time that we have three Thanksgiving games. In some respects, you almost have to treat that scenario like we have eight teams on a bye. In other respects, you have to make a tough decision to submit your entire five-play card on Thursday, or by Wednesday night depending on your proxy, to utilize one of those early games.

It is a decision that a lot of participants in this year’s field had to make. For us, we bypassed those Thursday games in hopes of having more clarity on the Sunday card with a little bit more time to decide on our selections. We’ll see if that winds up working out for us or not. What we do know is that we weren’t ready to lock in all five plays and it is definitely best to err on the side of caution in something as challenging as the SuperContest.

There are 3,123 entrants and our standing suggests that we should be taking more chances, but that doesn’t mean being reckless. Others may play all three Thursday games in hopes of gaining ground. We can’t fault them for that either. It is just one of the many wrinkles that the world’s ultimate handicapping test provides.

Through the first 11 weeks, we’ve had a lot of ups and downs and so has the field. We’ve seen the best three-week stretch in SuperContest history, but we’ve also seen five weeks come in at less than 50 percent, including one week at 38.57 percent. For the most part, nobody is immune to the ebbs and flows of the SuperContest, but in order to win, you really have to stay high and dry for most of the season.

Our BangTheBook entry has site bragging rights going into Week 12 with a 29-23-3 record. Our joint SuperContest Gold effort is 27-25-3. The BangTheBook Podcast entry of host Adam Burke is 22-27-6 and bringing up the rear, but as you can tell with six pushes, things could have gone in a lot of different directions.

The top 100 plus ties get paid in this thing and the prize pool is over $4.3 million, which is so why so many keep coming back to chase down the dream of winning. Right now, we have a lot of work to do, but we’re still putting in that work in hopes of moving up the standings.

The leader this week is @Pigskin_Junkies with 41 points. Team Cleveland, Personal Gourmet, and Finally 2019 are tied with 39.5 points. Over in the Gold, JRich and Hammer 3 share the lead with 36.5 points. The cut-off for the money in the traditional is 35 points. Only the winner gets paid in the Gold.

Here are our picks for Week 12:

BangTheBook (29-23-3, 55.77%)

8 Bills +3

12 49ers +3.5

16 Browns +3

20 Seahawks +3.5

27 Vikings -3.5

BangTheBook Podcast (22-27-6, 44.90%)

8 Bills +3

9 Ravens -10.5

12 49ers +3

16 Browns +3

26 Broncos +3

BangTheBook.com (27-25-3, 51.92%)

8 Bills +3

12 49ers +3.5

16 Browns +3

20 Seahawks +3.5

27 Vikings -3.5

Taking eight teams out of the equation early on in the process does make it very difficult. That only leaves 12 games and making five picks means picking nearly 42 percent of the card. In a league as tight as the NFL, that is not the most optimal scenario, but those are the rules that everybody must play by.

We opted to take a look at a lot of underdogs this week, as they simply seemed to carry a lot of value. It stands to reason that stock prices on teams that are flying high are inflated now that we’re 12 weeks into the year and consistency is worth its weight in gold. We’re hoping to go against the grain with some of those teams and also fade some false favorites that don’t deserve that minus sign in front of the spread.

To hear host Adam Burke’s thoughts, be sure to catch up on the Friday edition of BangTheBook Radio and the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

For those following along with our Golden Nugget prowess, our picks there are FIU, Syracuse, Liberty, Wake Forest, Bills, Browns, Seahawks.

The consensus was just 3-7-1 on Thursday games heading into this weekend. With three games to consider, we saw a lot more picks on the Thursday slate. All three games lost for the consensus, so that mark is now down to 3-10-1.

Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 12 (Gold count in parentheses):

1 Bears 325 (15) WIN

2 Lions* (+3) 478 (17)

 

3 Cowboys* 320 (12) WIN

4 Redskins (+7) 503 (27)

 

5 Saints* 273 (17) WIN

6 Falcons (+13) 510 (27)

 

7 Jaguars 515 (14)

8 Bills* (+3) 574 (21)

 

9 Ravens* 430 (16)

10 Raiders (+10.5) 285 (9)

 

11 Buccaneers* 365 (8)

12 49ers (+3.5) 496 (33) (Gold #4)

 

13 Eagles* 381 (15)

14 Giants (+6) 902 (consensus #2) (40) (Gold #1)

 

15 Bengals* 638 (20)

16 Browns (+3) 636 (30)

 

17 Patriots 1007 (consensus #1) (37) (Gold #2)

18 Jets (+9.5) 222 (10)

 

19 Panthers* 691 (consensus #5) (19)

20 Seahawks (+3.5) 656 (35) (Gold #3)

 

21 Colts* 683 (22)

22 Dolphins (+7.5) 391 (19)

 

23 Chargers* 399 (17)

24 Cardinals (+12.5) 184 (8)

 

25 Steelers 837 (consensus #3) (24)

26 Broncos* (+3) 580 (32) (Gold #5)

 

27 Vikings* 495 (21)

28 Packers (+3.5) 720 (consensus #4) (31)

 

29 Texans* 319 (10)

30 Titans (+6.5) 565 (24)

 

The top-five consensus in the traditional SuperContest is the New England Patriots, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, and Carolina Panthers.

The top-five consensus in the SuperContest Gold is the New York Giants, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and Denver Broncos.

Follow along with our SuperContest picks every week at BangTheBook.com in this Saturday article and with the BangTheBook Podcast entry every Friday during the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

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