NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 11

Last Updated: 2018-11-17

supercontest week 11 picksThe toughest week of the season just might be next week in the Westgate SuperContest with three Thursday games to consider, but it’s business as usual here in Week 11. Every single pick increases in importance as the season goes along and we’ve got 15 very important picks across our three SuperContest entries this week.

As you know by now, the SuperContest is the world’s ultimate handicapping test, as contestants pick five games against the spread with stale numbers that come out on Wednesday and do not move. There are 3,123 entries in this year’s SuperContest and 128 in the second year of the SuperContest Gold.

Last week, a reversal of fortunes for the field stood out like a sore thumb because bettors had been killing the books and also killing it in the SuperContest. In Weeks 7, 8, and 9, the top-five consensus was 14-1 and a lot of contestants had huge three-week stretches. Last week, the top-five consensus went 2-3, but some really popular teams lost and the field suffered as a result.

The SuperContest has been a roller coaster of emotions for us. The BangTheBook traditional entry is 27-20-3 and got off to a great start, but has leveled off a bit in recent weeks. The BangTheBook Podcast traditional entry is trying to climb out of a deep hole at 20-24-6, but with a 10-4-1 record over the last three weeks. Our first attempt at the BangTheBook.com Gold entry checks in at 25-22-3.

The top 100 plus ties get something for their time and efforts in the SuperContest. Right now, that cut-off is 32 points, so we have some work to do. The leader is Personal Gourmet with 38.5 points. @Pigskin_Junkies is all alone in second place with 38 points.

Over in the Gold, JRich and Hammer 3 are tied with 33.5 points. That is a winner-take-all handicapping tournament, so it is going to be very disheartening for the people that finish in the top five and have nothing to show for it.

On the season, the field is at 77750-70963-6817 for a 52.28 percent success rate. In the Gold, the field is at 53.57 percent. After hitting at a 59.2 percent clip over Weeks 7, 8, and 9, the field hit at just 45.97 percent last week. Had the Jaguars not come back against the Colts, it would have been much worse.

Here are our picks for Week 11:

BangTheBook (27-20-3, 57.45%)

13 Colts -2

15 Texans -3

20 Broncos +7

21 Cardinals -5.5

25 Rams -3.5

 

BangTheBook Podcast (20-24-6, 45.45%)

5 Falcons -3.5

10 Vikings +2.5

12 Eagles +8.5

13 Colts -2

20 Broncos +7

 

BangTheBook.com (25-22-3, 53.19%)

13 Colts -2

15 Texans -3

20 Broncos +7

21 Cardinals -5.5

25 Rams -3.5

We’ve got chalky cards this week, which is a little bit against the norm for us. We’re typically anti-consensus and looking for small home dogs or unpopular road favorites, but this is a week with a lot of chalk. We also have a couple of consensus plays, but also a big anti-consensus decision on Monday Night Football.

The BangTheBook and BangTheBook.com cards are identical this week, with three differences on the BangTheBook Podcast card. The Colts and Broncos match across all three selections, so those will be two huge games for us.

To hear host Adam Burke’s thoughts, be sure to catch up on the Friday edition of BangTheBook Radio and the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

For those following along with our Golden Nugget progress, our picks there are FIU, Washington State, Nevada, UTEP, Colts, Texans, and Cardinals.

The consensus did start 1-0 this week in emphatic fashion with the Seahawks covering over the Packers. That line was 2.5 in the SuperContest, so the three-point win that pushed for most in the betting market was a winner in the SuperContest. The Thursday Night game is only 3-7-1 for the consensus this season, but it was a winner to kick off Week 11.

Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 11 (Gold count in parentheses):

1 Seahawks 475 (17)

2 Packers (+2.5) 131 (8)

 

3 Panthers 920 (consensus #3) (20)

4 Lions* (+4) 282 (18)

 

5 Falcons* 792 (19)

6 Cowboys (+3.5) 449 (23)

 

7 Ravens* 163 (6)

8 Bengals (+6.5) 665 (41) (Gold #4)

 

9 Bears* 608 (18)

10 Vikings (+2.5) 1283 (consensus #2) (53) (Gold #1)

 

11 Saints* 455 (20)

12 Eagles (+8.5) 823 (47) (Gold #2)

 

13 Colts* 841 (consensus #5) (33)

14 Titans (+2) 543 (16)

 

15 Texans 890 (consensus #4) (26)

16 Redskins* (+3) 490 (20)

 

17 Giants* 631 (37) (Gold #5)

18 Buccaneers (+1.5) 251 (7)

 

19 Chargers* 568 (22)

20 Broncos (+7) 539 (29)

 

21 Cardinals* 462 (23)

22 Raiders (+5.5) 284 (25)

 

23 Steelers 696 (18)

24 Jaguars* (+5.5) 549 (34)

 

25 Rams* 333 (15)

26 Chiefs (+3.5) 1332 (consensus #1) (45) (Gold #3)

The top-five consensus is the Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, and Indianapolis Colts.

The Chiefs draw the top spot this week after how the Rams have been exposed on defense the last two weeks. The Vikings are also popular against the Bears, who have played one of the weakest schedules in the league this season. Operation Fade Matt Patricia continues and so does the fade of the Washington Redskins. Surprisingly, the Colts get in there after Tennessee’s win over New England.

The top-five consensus in the Gold is the Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and New York Giants.

There are a couple of matching teams in both, but the fade of the Buccaneers is rather surprising. The perceived line value on Cincinnati with Baltimore’s QB issues was too much for Gold contestants to pass up. The Bears fade is strong this week and so is the love for the Chiefs.

Follow along with our SuperContest picks every week at BangTheBook.com in this Saturday article and with the BangTheBook Podcast entry every Friday during the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

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