NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 11

 

Last Updated: 2017-11-18

supercontest week 11 picksIt is really disappointing to head into the weekend with a 0-1 record in the SuperContest, but that is the case for both of our BangTheBook entries in Week 11. A calculated gamble on the Thursday Night Football game backfired, so we’re heading into the weekend hoping for a big Sunday.

All of the 2,748 entrants that are still making picks are hoping for a big weekend as well. We’re reaching that point in the SuperContest when time is running out for those that have records of .500 or lower. There are only 35 picks left to make and the format and the size of the field makes it very hard to make up a lot of ground. Once again, the mental elements of this contest are often harder than the capping itself. To be fair, we are talking about life-changing money for the winner and the top-five and a nice chunk of change all the way down to the top 50 plus ties.

For those that are out of the running, if they signed up early enough, the Mini Contest is coming up. For those that are in the running, the decisions continue to grow in importance. After a top-heavy Week 9, we saw picks really spread across the board in Week 10. Week 11 is no different, as there really aren’t a whole lot of obvious consensus sides.

A combined 2-8 record for us here at BangTheBook was a huge setback last week. Said setback continued into Week 11 with a loser on the Thursday Night Football game. The BangTheBook.com entry still holds site bragging rights with a 26-24-1 record. The Bang The Book Podcast entry is 25-26.

Last week’s 44.82 percent success rate in the SuperContest was the worst since Week 7 and the third-lowest success rate of the season. Only Week 1 and Week 7 went worse than last week. The overall record is 63,574-69,153-3,738, which is 47.9 percent. The Gold field continues to have problems as well. Last week’s 193-254-14 record represented a 43.05 percent success rate, which was the second-lowest of the season. The Gold field is 48.29 percent overall at 2,169-2,323-143.

Biosoft Sports leads Biosoft Global and Grannys Boy in the traditional SuperContest standings with 34.5 points. That half-point lead shows just how tight things are likely to be the rest of the way. VegasWeHaveAProblem4 has 33.5 points and three entries are tied with 33 points. In the SuperContest Gold, BKSF continues to lead by 2.5 points over Michael Peffercorn and the rest of the contestants.

By playing the Thursday nighter, our full cards had to be in early. Many have said that this is a tough week in the NFL, especially with the lack of reliable quarterback options, which is why we hopped on that primetime matchup. Tennessee lost the turnover battle 4-0 and lost 40-17, even though the Titans were only outgained by 33 yards. Alas, we start 0-1 with our cards.

Here are our Week 11 selections:

10122 BangTheBook.com (26-23-1, 53.06%)

2 TITANS +7 (loss to fall to 26-24-1)

9 RAVENS -2

21 BRONCOS -2.5

25 EAGLES -3.5

28 FALCONS +2.5

 

10124 Bang The Book Podcast (25-25, 50%)

2 TITANS +7 (loss to fall to 25-26)

16 BROWNS +7.5

21 BRONCOS -2.5

24 RAIDERS +6.5

25 EAGLES -3.5

We’ll have to hope for a big Sunday. A couple of matching picks are on the cards this week with the Broncos and Eagles. Hopping on these games on Thursday means absorbing a little bit of risk in terms of stale line value and injury updates. The number on the Raiders looks pretty bad now, but it did turn the Patriots into an even more popular pick, so there’s a chance to get one back against the consensus. Unfortunately, the line also jumped on the Eagles, which made that side more popular as well.

Tune in to this week’s Westgate SuperContest Selections segment, where host Adam Burke talked about his five plays and shared some thoughts with this week’s pinch hitter Wes Reynolds in place of Sports Cheetah.

The consensus goes into this week at 59-81-5 (42.14%) and the top-five consensus is a disaster at 19-31 (38%). The Gold consensus is just 64-73-5 (46.72%) in its own right and the top-five consensus is now 20-29-1 (40.82%). With a lot of sides that had the same number of selections, we considered the 1-2 record by the fourth-most popular sides to be the fifth pick and a loser.

Here are the Week 11 lines, pick counts, and the consensus:

1 Steelers* 181 (7)

2 Titans (+7) 207 (8)

 

3 Lions 928 (consensus #3) (29) (Gold #2)

4 Bears* (+2.5) 382 (21)

 

5 Chiefs 426 (8)

6 Giants* (+10.5) 300 (20)

 

7 Buccaneers 331 (11)

8 Dolphins* (PK) 320 (16)

 

9 Ravens 535 (17)

10 Packers* (+2) 474 (13)

 

11 Vikings* 749 (consensus #4) (35) (Gold #1)

12 Rams (+2) 561 (11)

 

13 Cardinals 209 (4)

14 Texans* (PK) 432 (27) (Gold #3)

 

15 Jaguars 421 (4)

16 Browns* (+7.5) 400 (14)

 

17 Saints* 586 (consensus #5) (11)

18 Redskins (+7.5) 433 (21)

 

19 Chargers* 561 (22)

20 Bills (+5.5) 251 (11)

 

21 Broncos* 583 (22)

22 Bengals (+2.5) 216 (7)

 

23 Patriots 1086 (consensus #2) (24) (Gold #5)

24 Raiders (+6.5) 329 (14)

 

25 Eagles 1306 (consensus #1) (25) (Gold #4)

26 Cowboys* (+3.5) 349 (20)

 

27 Seahawks* 506 (23)

28 Falcons (+2.5) 453 (15)

The top-five consensus is the Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and New Orleans Saints.

The consensus is already 0-1 this week with Tennessee’s loss, though the pick counts were closer than I expected. We’ve been watching the consensus differences between the traditional and Gold this season. Those picks are 28-21-2 to the Gold side. Those games this week are Jaguars/Browns, Saints/Redskins, Buccaneers/Dolphins, and Chiefs/Giants.

Once again, the picks are fairly balanced this week, but you can see a focus on the games with name-brand quarterbacks. With a large number of journeymen, bums, rookies, and outright stiffs set to start games this weekend, bettors had a hard time finding sides that they were comfortable with.

Follow along each week with our SuperContest preview article on Saturday and our recap article on Tuesday. Check out our Friday editions of BangTheBook Radio for the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment with host Adam Burke and Sports Cheetah, who is invested in the contest with an individual entry in the regular SuperContest and a team entry in the Gold.

 

-END OF 2017 WEEK 11 UPDATE-

 

Week 11 of the NFL season is here and that means another round of brave souls putting in their picks for the Westgate SuperContest. The SuperContest brands itself as the ultimate football handicapping test and a lot of people have a failing grade this season. The overall success rate on the year sits at just 47.86 percent, but the glass is certainly half full for us here at BangTheBook.com.

This season, 1,854 entrants threw down the $1,500 buy-in and the related expenses in hopes of picking up a piece of the $2,558,520 prize pool. Competitors pick five games against the spread with stale numbers that come out on Wednesday night and do not move. After 85 selections, a champion (or co-champions) is crowned and wins $895,482 for his or her (or their) efforts. With 10 weeks done and 50 picks submitted, some entries don’t have much of a chance at the money, but everybody gets a chance beginning Week 15 during the $20,000 Mini Contest.

As we talked about last week, golden opportunities don’t come along often in this contest. Heading into Week 10, there was a four-way tie at the top with 31.5 points because the teams pacing the field struggled. After Week 10, there was a five-way tie at the top with 33.5 points. Anything could happen the rest of the way and the drama just continues to build.

Before taking a look at the BangTheBook selections for this week, let’s run through the week-by-week results. Week 1 came in at 52.62 percent. Week 2 checked in at 45.18 percent. Week 3 remains the worst week of the season at 40.19 percent. Week 4 hit at 42.76 percent. Week 5 came in at 53.95 percent and was the best week to date before Week 6 passed it at 55.01 percent. Week 7 checked in at 51.36 percent and Week 8 at 51.5 percent. That’s the last time the field was over 50 percent, with Week 9 at 45.8 percent and Week 10 at 40.67 percent. The year-to-date record is 43,159-47,024-1,986 for a 47.86 percent success rate.

Here at BangTheBook.com, things are getting very interesting for our 7226 BangTheBook.com entry, which is owned by Ryan, our fearless leader and site proprietor. He’s one point out of the money with a 28-20-2 record on the season. There are 11 entrants with 30 points, so, right now, that would net $1,628.15. Unfortunately, our BangTheBook Podcast entry hosted by Adam Burke and Cole Ryan hasn’t gotten it going. Since a 7-3 start over the first two weeks, the guys are just 14-26 over the last eight weeks. It’s been a struggle, but the hard work continues behind the scenes and hopefully the gambling gods take pity on them at some point, since it feels like a lot of toss-ups and late-game shenanigans have gone against them. The handicapping does need to improve, though, and the guys are excited about their selections this weekend.

Here are the BangTheBook Westgate SuperContest Selections for Week 11:

7226 BangTheBook.com (28-20-2. 58.33%)

3 COLTS -3

6 JAGUARS +6.5

8 BUCCANEERS +7.5

14 BILLS +2.5

16 RAVENS +7

7227 BangTheBook Podcast (21-29, 42%)

5 LIONS -6.5

14 BILLS +2.5

16 RAVENS +7

24 EAGLES +6.5

25 REDSKINS -2.5

The guys are on opposite sides again this week, so we’ll have to root for a 5-0 for 7226 and a 4-1 for 7227. The entries do match up on two sides, so let’s hope for the best in both of those games.

For more insight on the BangTheBook Podcast selections, we encourage you to listen to this week’s Westgate SuperContest Selections segment from the November 18 edition of BangTheBook Radio. The guys included additional thoughts on every other game in the Rapid Fire Rundown segment.

Last week was a bloodbath. It’s actually surprising that it wasn’t the worst week of the season because it was certainly trending that way early on. The consensus was 1-11 heading into the primetime games and the aforementioned four entries tied for first were 0-14 ATS on the weekend. Seattle was a consensus pick by 20 selections and covered and the Bengals were picked 136 more times than the Giants. That spared the contest participants from the worst collective week of the year. The top-five consensus was 0-5.

Heading into Week 11, we have a five-way tie at the top with Johnny Vegas, Janknation, Mark Davis, Underdobs, and Ripsaw. All of them have 33.5 points. The first three are coming off of 4-1 weeks. Co-leader Ripsaw went just 2-3 last week. Johnny Vegas and Underdobs have 33 wins and a push, while the other three entries have 32 wins and three pushes. Morley the 15th, Just Cover Baby, and skinknee.com have 33 points. DDS Trojan Guys, Winning Angle, Hustle 2016, John, boga dave, and Redwine have 32.5 points. Six are tied with 32 points. Eleven entrants have 31.5 points and 12 have 31 points. Things are very crowded at the top.

Let’s see if we can get a little bit of separation this week. Here are the pick counts and the lines for Week 11 (top-five consensus in bold):

Carolina 74

New Orleans (+3.5) WIN 155

Indianapolis 280

Tennessee (+3) 509 (consensus #3)

Detroit 282

Jacksonville (+6.5) 330

Kansas City 131

Tampa Bay (+7.5) 434 (consensus #5)

New York Giants 227

Chicago (+7.5) 283

Arizona 333

Minnesota (PK) 499 (consensus #4)

Cincinnati 292

Buffalo (+2.5) 394

Dallas 315

Baltimore (+7) 596 (consensus #1)

Pittsburgh 392

Cleveland (+8) 172

Miami 516 (consensus #2)

Los Angeles (+2.5) 331

New England 277

San Francisco (+13) 187

Seattle 412

Philadelphia (+6.5) 300

Washington 405

Green Bay (+2.5) 363

Oakland 430

Houston (+5.5) 201

The top-five consensus is Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Baltimore certainly seems like a little bit of a stunner at the top. The Jared Goff fade is on for the SuperContest with the Dolphins in the top five.

The top-five consensus is now just 15-33-2 on the season for a 31.25 percent rate of success. The top-five consensus was 0-5 last week. Not only did the Steelers, Saints, Falcons, Packers, and Panthers fail to cover the spread, every one of them lost the game outright and four of them were favored.

The consensus, the most selected sides in each game, is currently sitting at 63-78-3, which is just a 44.68 percent rate of success. Two games, Pittsburgh vs. Washington in Week 1 and Detroit vs. Houston in Week 8, tied with the same number of selections, so there have been 146 NFL games played so far this season. The consensus was 3-11 last week, with winners on Washington, Seattle, and Cincinnati. Cincinnati barely covered and only covered because of the stale lines for the SuperContest.

The only possible stale line value grab this week is Minnesota, who was a pick ‘em and is now a 2.5-point favorite for the matchup against the Cardinals. Other than that, the lines are pretty similar, although Oakland has grown into a bigger favorite for Monday’s game in Mexico City.

Follow along with us each and every week at BangTheBook.com and also on BangTheBook Radio. Adam Burke and Cole Ryan share general NFL handicapping analysis and free picks on Wednesdays on The Gridiron Gambling Report and then share their SuperContest thoughts and selections on Friday editions of the show.

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