Last Updated: 2017-11-11
The Westgate SuperContest rolls on into Week 10 after the best week of the season to date. The stale line value on the Indianapolis Colts was the biggest winner in SuperContest history and over 61 percent of the entries that submitted picks were on that game. With favorites and trendy dogs doing well over the last few weeks, could we see a reversal of fortunes this week?
Handicapping the NFL is hard enough without all of the extra elements of the SuperContest, like the game theory considerations and the fact that making up ground is extremely hard to do. Unlike a standard betting bankroll, you can turn things around a bit over the course of a weekend. In the SuperContest, you have to string multiple weeks together. With a finite number of picks each week and over the course of the season, time is starting to run out for those that have not have much success thus far and those that are in the middle of the pack may need to pick more aggressively.
There are 2,748 entrants in this year’s field. Last week, only 2,714 submitted picks, so we have seen some people drop off after starting slow. That number will continue to dwindle until we get to the Mini Contest in Weeks 15, 16, and 17, where the best record over those three weeks will pick up $15,000. The grand prize is $1,327,284, plus some other possible incentives for having a 70 percent or higher success rate and the quarterly bonuses for the first half of the season. Second place is good for $530,913.60. The top 50 plus ties get paid, with the starting point at $3,792.24, depending on how many ties have to be factored in.
We’ve crossed the halfway point of the contest and things are looking decent for our BangTheBook entries. The BangTheBook.com entry, owned by our site creator, Ryan, sits at 25-19-1 on the year. The Bang The Book Podcast entry that belongs to Adam Burke, host of BangTheBook Radio, is 24-21 on the season.
Last week, the Bang The Book Podcast entry was 4-1 and the BangTheBook.com entry was 3-2. That was above the overall success rate of the field, which came in at 57.22 percent. Of the 7,225 winners, 3,443 came from the three most selected sides, hence the high success rate. Overall, the field is at 48.23 percent through nine weeks.
Biosoft Global leads the SuperContest with 32 points. Biosoft Sports is second with 31.5 points. Two entries have 30.5 points. Four entries have 30 points. The cut-off for the cash right now is 28 points.
On the Gold side, the contestants were back on the right side of 50 percent for the first time since Week 6. The Gold field had five straight winning weeks from Week 2 to Week 6, but it has been a struggle since, including a 31.78 percent success rate in Week 7. Overall, the Gold field is at 48.86 percent, with the leader, BKSF, at 30 points.
This week was an interesting one for both of our entries. Normally, there is a lot of stressing and second-guessing before the deadline to send picks to our proxy. This week, that wasn’t really the case. The Bang The Book Podcast entry had things squared away by Thursday night and the BangTheBook.com entry features the five original picks after a little bit of extra digging that came up empty. We’ll have to see how that plays out. It is rare to stick with the original set of picks and leans, but both entries have done that this week. Hopefully trusting the original handicap works out.
Here are our Week 10 selections:
10122 BangTheBook.com (25-19-1, 56.82%)
4 REDSKINS +1
5 BEARS -5.5
16 BILLS +3
18 BROWNS +12
21 FALCONS -3
10124 Bang The Book Podcast (24-21, 53.33%)
9 JAGUARS -3.5
12 BUCCANEERS +2.5
16 BILLS +3
18 BROWNS +12
28 DOLPHINS +9
It is a card with some ugly dogs for Adam Burke, and you can hear his thoughts on this week’s Westgate SuperContest Selections segment, with some additional insight from Sports Cheetah, on this week’s Friday edition of BangTheBook Radio.
The two entries match picks with the Bills and Browns, so those will be two very big games for this week. The top-five consensus did hit on its top three picks last week and Adam’s entry had four consensus picks, including those three. The BangTheBook.com entry has the top three consensus picks this week, so we’ll see how that plays out.
The consensus, the side with more selections in each individual game, is 56-71-4 on the season, with the same number of picks between New England and Tampa Bay in Week 5. The consensus record in the Gold is 59-67-4, with the same number of picks in both the Kansas City vs. Oakland game in Week 7 and the Vikings and Browns in Week 8. The top-five consensus is 19-25-1.
Here are the lines and pick counts for Week 10:
1 Seahawks 192 (6)
2 Cardinals* (+6) 160 (8) PUSH
3 Vikings 639 (25) (Gold #4)
4 Redskins* (+1) 703 (consensus #3) (23) (Gold #5)
5 Bears* 509 (14)
6 Packers (+5.5) 353 (21)
7 Steelers 451 (16)
8 Colts* (+10) 430 (16)
9 Jaguars* 719 (consensus #2) (25) (Gold #4)
10 Chargers (+3.5) 657 (15)
11 Jets 666 (consensus #5) (15)
12 Buccaneers* (+2.5) 457 (23) (Gold #5)
13 Titans* 397 (11)
14 Bengals (+4.5) 311 (11)
15 Saints 388 (9)
16 Bills* (+3) 1,182 (consensus #1) (44) (Gold #1)
17 Lions* 276 (2)
18 Browns (+12) 512 (27) (Gold #2)
19 Rams* 697 (consensus #4) (12)
20 Texans (+12) 256 (21)
21 Falcons* 645 (26) (Gold #3)
22 Cowboys (+3) 631 (8)
23 Giants 371 (12)
24 49ers (+2.5) 315 (14)
25 Patriots 578 (11)
26 Broncos* (+7.5) 369 (25) (Gold #4)
27 Panthers* 162 (7)
28 Dolphins (+9) 509 (13)
The top-five consensus is the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Redskins, Los Angeles Rams, and New York Jets. The Gold top-five consensus is a mess, with a three-way tie for fourth and a two-way tie for fifth.
We’ve already got a push on the board thanks to Thursday Night Football as the Seahawks won 22-16. That was a consensus difference, as the Gold had a couple more picks on the home dog. Those games are now 24-19-2, with others this week on Broncos/Patriots, Rams/Texans, Buccaneers/Jets, Bears/Packers, and Vikings/Redskins.
The picks are spread out a little bit more this week. Last week, 1,675 were on the Colts, 944 were on the Rams, and 824 on the Cowboys. This week, we’ve got more picks spread across the board, which should make for a very interesting set of results. The Bills are tops with 1,182, but the next consensus pick is the Jaguars with just 719. The fifth-most selected team last week was taken 715 times, so the top-five consensus isn’t as overwhelming as it has been. The Chargers are sixth, so the second-most popular pick only has 62 more selections than the opposite side. It is similar with the Vikings/Redskins, as Washington is third in picks, but only 64 ahead of Minnesota.
Follow along each week with our SuperContest preview article on Saturday and our recap article on Tuesday. Check out our Friday editions of BangTheBook Radio for the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment with host Adam Burke and Sports Cheetah, who is invested in the contest with an individual entry in the regular SuperContest and a team entry in the Gold.
-END OF 2017 WEEK 10 UPDATE-
November can be a really tough month in the Westgate SuperContest. Theoretically, the lines should be getting tighter, even with the stale line element of this handicapping pool. Teams are rotating through bye weeks, which limits the sample size of available games, especially with the fact that the inclusion of the Thursday game would mean that the entire card has to be in before kickoff. Thanksgiving is two weeks away and that adds three Thursday games to the schedule.
It’s not a coincidence that the Week 10 look at the SuperContest begins with that point. There’s a four-way tie atop the standings this week after a terrible Week 9 for many of the contestants and the teams at the top. The door opened last week for some of the teams that have been sniffing around the money and some took advantage. Others did not and missed a golden opportunity. Golden opportunities haven’t come around much over the last two years, but maybe we do see a fight to the finish this year. Rounding again and CH Ballers pretty much kept the field outside arm’s reach. That’s not the case this season.
Picks 46 through 50 have been submitted for this week by everybody still participating in the Westgate SuperContest. For some, it’s more about pride than about making money on that $1,500 investment, but there’s still a lot to be decided over these final 40 selections. Remember that contest participants are selecting stale numbers that are released on Wednesday night and everybody must send in five picks.
Before we get into our BangTheBook.com selections for this week, let’s recap how the field has done this season. Week 1 came in at 52.62 percent, which was the best rate of success for quite a while. Week 2 hit at 45.18 percent and Week 3 currently remains the worst week of the season at 40.19 percent. Week 4 inched back up to 42.76 percent. Week 5 checked in at 53.95 percent, but the top week of the season was surpassed in Week 6 at 55.01 percent. Week 7 came in at 51.36 percent and Week 8 came in at 51.5 percent. The four-week winning streak came to a close in Week 9 with a 45.8 percent rate of winners. Overall, the SuperContest field is 39,440-41,598-1,986 for a 48.67 percent success rate.
Here at BangTheBook.com, it’s been a frustrating season in a lot of respects. We’ve let some winners out there as a result of bad luck and it feels like some of the toss-up games just haven’t bounced our way. That being said, it’s been a strong season for Ryan, our fearless leader with the BangTheBook.com entry, who is 25-18-2 on the season so far. Some bad handicaps have contributed to the 20-25 record of our BangTheBook Podcast entry, but a remarkably unlucky run of defensive/special teams scores and injuries have also been a big factor.
Here are the BangTheBook Westgate SuperContest selections for Week 10:
7226 BangTheBook.com (25-18-2, 58.14%)
3 TEXANS -1.5
6 CHIEFS +3
8 BRONCOS +2.5
10 RAMS +1.5
15 PACKERS -2.5
7227 BangTheBook Podcast (20-25, 44.44%)
7 SAINTS -2.5
14 VIKINGS +3
23 STEELERS -2.5
25 PATRIOTS -7.5
28 BENGALS +2
It won’t be a perfect 10-0 week for us with opposite sides in the Broncos vs. Saints game, but a 9-1 collective effort would do just fine. This was a really interesting week for lines, with many sitting below pick ‘em and the key number of three.
For more insight on the BangTheBook Podcast selections, we encourage you to listen to this week’s Westgate SuperContest Selections segment from the November 11 edition of BangTheBook Radio. The guys included additional thoughts on every other game in the Rapid Fire Rundown segment.
Last week was pretty interesting from a pick counts standpoint and that needs to be mentioned again here. There were bye weeks that played a role, but 18 of the 22 teams in action last Sunday had at least 300 selections. The field was really spread out in its opinions, except for the two most-selected sides, Denver and Pittsburgh, which both lost. We’re down to six teams on bye weeks this week, so there was one additional Sunday game to choose from.
As mentioned, there’s a four-way tie atop the leaderboard. Redwine moved into first place last week, but then went 1-4, so they allowed Ripsaw, Psalm 86, and Scorpio to create the traffic jam with 31.5 points. Psalm 86 had a 4-1 week, while Ripsaw went 1-3-1 and Scorpio was just 2-3. The lead sits at just 0.5 points, with Skinknee.com at 31 points. Three teams are tied with 30.5 points and three more teams are tied with 30 points. Again, the margin for error is so small in this contest. Keep in mind that the Mini Contest is Weeks 15 through 17, so everybody still has a chance at winning something.
Here are the pick counts for Week 10, as the SuperContest field looks to get back up over 50 percent after a down week (top-five consensus in bold):
Baltimore WIN 39
Cleveland (+9.5) 169
Jacksonville (+1.5) 406
Carolina 417 (consensus #5)
Kansas City (+3) 282
New Orleans 550 (consensus #2)
Denver (+2.5) 272
New York Jets 249
Los Angeles (+1.5) 134
Atlanta 538 (consensus #3)
Philadelphia (PK) 408
Minnesota (+3) 321
Green Bay 521 (consensus #4)
Tennessee (+2.5) 164
Tampa Bay (PK) 310
San Diego 412
Miami (+4) 226
San Francisco (+13.5) 101
Pittsburgh 671 (consensus #1)
Dallas (+2.5) 356
New England 353
Seattle (+7.5) 373
New York Giants 240
Cincinnati (+2) 376
The top-five consensus is the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, the Green Bay Packers, and the Carolina Panthers.
The top-five consensus was 1-3-1 last week and it sits at just 15-28-2 (34.88%) on the season. The only winning consensus play was New Orleans, who trucked San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. Denver and Pittsburgh both lost as the top two consensus picks.
The consensus, the most-selected sides in each game, is currently sitting at 60-67-3 (47.24%) on the season. The Monday Night Football game in Week 1 between Pittsburgh and Washington tied with 322 picks and the Detroit vs. Houston game in Week 8 tied with 326 selections per side. The consensus was 5-7-1 last week.
Stale lines really came into play this week, as the Bengals flipped into a Monday Night Football favorite against the Giants and money hit the market on the Falcons and the Bears as road teams in a pick ‘em spot. They are now favored. Part of the intrigue to the SuperContest is watching whether or not the entrants take the stale line value.
Follow along with us each and every week at BangTheBook.com and also on BangTheBook Radio. Adam Burke and Cole Ryan share general NFL handicapping analysis and free picks on Wednesdays on The Gridiron Gambling Report and then share their SuperContest thoughts and selections on Friday editions of the show.