NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 10

Date | AuthorAdam Burke

Last Updated: 2018-11-10

supercontest week 10The last three weeks of the Westgate SuperContest have been fascinating. The top-five consensus is 14-1 and the field has been putting up some absurd success rates. Coincidentally, in a non-contest perspective, the books have been taking it on the chin in the NFL over that span.

One of these weeks, the anti-consensus crowd is going to clean up. Will this be the week? We’ll have to wait and see, but this does have the makings of a week in which it could be tough for the popular, public teams with some big spreads on the board. Then again, we’ve thought that before and been burned. These are definitely interesting times in the SuperContest, as picks 46 through 50 go into the books.

By now you know the background of the SuperContest, but we’ll run through it real quick. It cost $1500 to get involved in the traditional and $5000 to get involved in the Gold. We have two traditional entries and one Gold entry. You make five picks each week against the spread with stale numbers that come out on Wednesdays. Each winner is a point, each tie is a half-point, and each losses hurts.

The top 100 plus ties get paid in the SuperContest this year, which is a difference from past years. It used to be just the top 50, but now there are 3,123 entrants in the SuperContest field. The SuperContest Gold is winner-take-all with 128 entrants.

As we head into Week 10, we do so with a little momentum. Even though our BangTheBook traditional entry and BangTheBook.com Gold entry had two losers against the top two consensus picks last week, both entries went 3-2 for the second straight week. The BangTheBook entry is 25-17-3. The BangTheBook.com Gold entry is 22-20-3.

The BangTheBook Podcast entry of radio show host Adam Burke went 4-1 last week to improve to 17-23-5. It’s been a struggle, but things are looking up a bit with a 7-3 run over the last two weeks.

The leaders in the SuperContest have out-of-this-world success rates. Personal Gourmet is 36-9 so far with 36 points. @Pigskin_Junkies has 35 points. That Other Team has 33.5 points. Rush YYZ 2112 has 33 points. The cut-off to make the money right now is 29.5 points, with the lowest success rate among that group at 65.7 percent.

In the Gold, JRich stands alone as the leader with 30.5 points. Party With The Noodler 2 is second with 30 points. Too Legit To Quit and Champion Iceman 2 have 29.5 points. So the cut-off for the money in the traditional has you tied for third in the Gold.

The field is 7123-663306-5473 on the year for a 52.95 percent success rate. The Gold field is 2988-2504-253 for a 54.41 percent success rate.

Here are our picks for Week 10 of the 2018 SuperContest:

BangTheBook (25-17-3, 59.52%)

6 Browns +4

12 Titans +6.5

14 Dolphins +9.5

23 Rams -9.5

27 49ers -3

 

BangTheBook Podcast (17-23-5, 42.50%)

8 Bengals +5.5

12 Titans +6.5

15 Colts -3

24 Seahawks +9.5

28 Giants +3

 

BangTheBook.com (22-20-3, 52.38%)

6 Browns +4

8 Bengals +5.5

12 Titans +6.5

14 Dolphins +9.5

21 Chargers -9.5

For the first time this season, we’ve got some big disagreements on the two traditional entries, including two picks going head-to-head with the Rams/Seahawks and 49ers/Giants up for bragging rights. We also see the Chargers hit the Gold entry board, despite not being on either traditional entry. It was, however, a mutually agreed upon play in the Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge, so it made the cut as fifth play here in the Gold.

When it comes to the SuperContest, there is more to consider than just the games and the lines. To some degree, both entries are looking to go a little bit anti-consensus this week. After all, the field is at 59.2 percent over the last three weeks and that seems unlikely to continue. It is an underdog-heavy board for our three entries, so hopefully those pups have a lot of bark this week.

To hear host Adam Burke’s thoughts, be sure to catch up on the Friday edition of BangTheBook Radio and the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

For those following along with our Golden Nugget progress, our picks there are Pitt, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Charlotte, Browns, Titans, and Chargers.

Once again, the field starts 0-1. The Panthers got 245 picks and the Steelers got 211 picks for Thursday Night Football. Carolina was taken 13 times in the Gold and Pittsburgh nine times. The Thursday Night game is now 2-7-1 for the traditional consensus and 2-5-1 in the Gold, as two of those games had the same number of picks for both teams.

Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 10 (Gold count in parentheses):

1 Steelers* 211 (9) WIN

2 Panthers (+4) 245 (13)

 

3 Jets* 378 (23)

4 Bills (+6.5) 141 (11)

 

5 Falcons 1294 (consensus #2) (46) (Gold #2)

6 Browns* (+4) 260 (15)

 

7 Saints 743 (20)

8 Bengals (+5.5) 795 (39) (Gold #4)

 

9 Buccaneers* 739 (24)

10 Redskins (+3) 337 (13)

 

11 Patriots 935 (consensus #4) (25)

12 Titans* (+6.5) 446 (26)

 

13 Packers* 672 (35) (Gold #5)

14 Dolphins (+9.5) 218 (10)

 

15 Colts* 580 (19)

16 Jaguars (+3) 764 (44) (Gold #3)

 

17 Bears* 631 (25)

18 Lions (+6.5) 569 (22)

 

19 Chiefs* 292 (11)

20 Cardinals (+16.5) 299 (18)

 

21 Chargers 919 (consensus #5) (31)

22 Raiders (+9.5) 175 (8)

 

23 Rams* 262 (15)

24 Seahawks (+9.5) 1078 (consensus #3) (33)

 

25 Eagles* 1401 (consensus #1) (57) (Gold #1)

26 Cowboys (+6.5) 224 (11)

 

27 49ers* 354 (21)

28 Giants (+3) 553 (16)

The top-five consensus is the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, and Los Angeles Chargers.

The Falcons were a pretty obvious pick to be in the top-five consensus, as that line has grown from 4 to 6 and line value on stale numbers is hard to pass up. Also, the Falcons destroyed the Redskins last week and now face the lowly Browns. Outside of that, it was a little bit trickier to guess, but the teams that are in there aren’t a big surprise. The Eagles are less than a touchdown against a Cowboys team that looked awful. The Seahawks are catching a big number. The Patriots are under a touchdown. The Raiders have quit on the season, so the Chargers get in there.

The top-five consensus in the Gold is the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals, and Green Bay Packers.

Like the traditional consensus, we figured Atlanta to be here with the stale line value and what looks to be a decent matchup against a reeling Browns team. The Eagles also appear off a bye. The Jaguars, Bengals, and Packers are all very interesting picks, but the Bengals are in a great spot and the Dolphins are believed to be an overrated, fraudulent team.

Follow along with our SuperContest picks every week at BangTheBook.com in this Saturday article and with the BangTheBook Podcast entry every Friday during the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment.

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