NFL Week 7 Betting Review
- Updated: October 25, 2011
NFL over/unders continued to trend back toward the .500 mark during week 7 play, as scoring, after the early-season explosions, continued to slow.
Seven of the 13 NFL games over the weekend played “under” their posted totals, as games averaged 41.6 points per. Six teams were held to scoring in single digits, and the Oakland Raiders, thanks to some ridiculously inept quarterback play, got shut out.
Through the first five weeks of this season NFL over/unders had gone 47-28; over the last two weeks the totals have gone 9-17.
Linesmakers, though, are still having to post some fairly large totals on their NFL betting boards. For this week 5Dimes.com is listing four games with O/Us of 45 and above. The Buffalo-Washington game in Toronto is lined at 46; the Minnesota-Carolina game, a matchup of rookie QBs, is totaled at 47.5; the New England-Pittsburgh game is listed at 50.5; and the Dallas-Philly game is totaled at 51.
NFL double-digit favorites went 3-1 SU over the weekend and 2-2 ATS. Dallas cruised by hapless St. Louis 34-7, covering as 14-point favorites; New Orleans crushed Indianapolis 62-7, covering as 14-point chalk; and Green Bay won at Minnesota 33-27, but could not cover as 10-point road faves.
Then came Monday night, when Jacksonville, getting 10.5 points from visiting Baltimore, beat the Ravens in a real stinker 12-7. And those who backed the Jags on the moneyline were rewarded with one of the bigger payback prices of this season at +450.
So on the season NFL double-digit favorites are now 11-2 SU but just 5-8 ATS.
As of Tuesday morning 5Dimes is listing three teams as double-digit favorites for this weekend. Tennessee is giving the Colts 10.5 points; the Giants are giving the Dolphins 11 points; and San Francisco is giving Cleveland 10.5 points.
Jacksonville’s victory Monday night also helped NFL home underdogs go 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS over the weekend. So on the season home dogs are now 15-23 SU and 20-16 ATS.
For this week 5Dimes lists three more home dogs on its betting board. The Steelers are getting 2.5 points from the visiting Patriots; the Seahawks are getting 2.5 points at home vs. Cincinnati; and Kansas City is getting three points from visiting San Diego.
Looking inside the week 7 boxscores we find that teams that committed fewer turnovers than their opponents won 10 of 11 games outright (two games had even turnover margins), and eight of them covered the pointspreads. On the season teams that win the turnover battles are now 61-19 SU and 58-19 (with three pushes) ATS.
So far this year the five teams with the best turnover ratios – Detroit (+10), Buffalo (+9), San Francisco and Green Bay (+8) and Houston (+6) – are a combined 21-9 ATS (excluding pushes). On the other end of the scale the eight teams with the worst turnover ratios – Pittsburgh (-9), Philadelphia (-8), Miami (-7), Washington (-6) and Arizona, San Diego, Denver and Indianapolis (-5) – are a combined 16-33 ATS.