NFL Week 5 System Picks
- Updated: October 5, 2013
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger called the Steelers the worst team in the NFL after their loss to Minnesota on Sunday. Sorry, Ben, but you’re not even close. The worst team in football is easily the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are doing their best to become one of the worst teams of all-time.
The Jaguars now hold the dubious distinction of being the largest NFL underdog ever. When the LVH opened its advance lines for next week’s games, the Denver Broncos were 26.5-point favorites over the Jaguars. The number dropped to 26, but depending on this week’s action, the number could possibly climb back up and be close to four touchdowns by kick-off.
Now, after trashing the Jaguars, it may come as a surprise to know that we’ll be on them this week. Since the start of the 1993 season, winless teams after four games or more stand a solid 54-34-3 (60.9%) against the point spread if they are underdogs. When they are double-digit underdogs, as Jacksonville is this week, they have been slightly better, winning at a 61.1% clip.
The logic behind the method makes perfect sense, as the betting public knows these teams are winless and the public likes to back winners, not losers. As a result, you’re getting the best of the line. You’re also getting the best effort of the team, which is no doubt sick and tired of hearing how they have not won a game all season.
The New York Giants are also playing this week as a winless team, but find themselves favored by 2.5 points over the Philadelphia Eagles and favorites are just 16-15 against the spread.
Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh will return to action next week, as both teams are on their bye. The Buccaneers may actually be favored over Philadelphia next week, while the Steelers should be underdogs when they travel to face the New York Jets.