NFL Week 4 System Picks
- Updated: September 26, 2013
Those well-versed in the business world are no doubt familiar with the concept of letting other people do your work for you. The same principle can be applied to the sports betting world and you’re not just letting anybody do your work for you, you’re enlisting the help of the Bookmaker. When he tells you to expect a low-scoring game on Thursday night, pay attention.
Since the start of the 2003 season Thursday games with a posted total of 44.5 or lower are 18-31-2 in totals, which translates to just 36.7% of the games going over the total. With the over/under in the 49ers’ game sitting at 42 at BetDSI, the oddsmaker is calling for a lower-scoring game than usual and history has suggested that is the way to go.
Those bettors who use a contrarian approach would be better served by waiting another week or two before wagering on the basis of a team’s win-loss record. While contrarian bettors are no doubt looking to wager on all of the winless teams and bet against the undefeated teams, that approach has seen mixed results since the beginning of the 2003 season.
Teams that begin the season with three straight losses have come back to post a 24-17-1 record against the spread, which translates to 58.5%. The teams that fall into this category this week are Tampa Bay, the New York Giants, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Washington Redskins. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings both fall into this category but offset each other, as they will be stinking up Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday.
Surprisingly, teams that begin the season with three straight wins have posted a decent 23-17 (57.5%) record in Week 4. This week’s qualifiers are Denver, Kansas City, New England, Chicago and Seattle. Both Miami and New Orleans fit the bill, but play each other on Monday night.
The undefeated teams have cooled off in Week 4 as of late, going just 8-7 since 2009 and 3-3 over the past two seasons, so you may want to avoid these teams.