NFL Week 13 System Picks
- Updated: November 27, 2013
In some regards, being a successful NFL bettor is a lot like being a successful stock broker; you sell when others are buying and buy when others are selling. As it pertains to the NFL, you look to wager against a particular team when others are lining up to bet them and wager on teams that the betting public wants no part of.
If there was a team that the public would want no part of this week it would have to be the Houston Texans, losers of nine straight games, including back-to-back home losses to Oakland and Jacksonville. The Texans are at home for a third straight game, this time hosting New England, who is coming off its thrilling overtime victory against Denver.
The early wagers on the game show roughly 90% of the bets are coming in on New England. As a result, the Patriots have moved from 7-point favorites to 7.5-point favorites.
The Texans find themselves in a solid winning situation that shows home underdogs coming off of seven straight losses going 48-31-4 (60.8%) dating back to 1990. If the line is greater than seven, the winning percentage inches up a bit to 16-9 (64%).
The Patriots find themselves in a rare negative situation that shows favorites after winning an overtime game as a home underdog are just 1-9 against the spread dating back to 1992.
The same situation arose earlier this year when the Miami Dolphins defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime on Thursday night and then traveled to Tampa to face the Buccaneers on Monday night; a game that the Bucs won 22-19.
The Texans have several other factors in their favor, as home teams off back-to-back home losses are 27-17-1 (61.4%) against the spread, not to mention it being a bit of a revenge game for Houston, which dropped a 41-28 decision to the Patriots in last year’s playoffs.