NFL Week 12 System Picks
- Updated: November 22, 2013
When looking at NFL games from a historical perspective, most bettors like to have a sample size of at least three years before deciding to follow any trends that have been established. But what is more important than the number of years that a system has been checked is the number of plays that have been analyzed. A five-year system that yields just two or three plays per year should be given less weight than a two-year system that produces 10 to 15 plays per season.
There are also going to be times when you jump on the hot trend that is occurring during a particular season if there is a large enough sample size to justify following along and placing a wager. That is occurring this season with the simple premise of playing the over in non-conference games, as these games have gone an amazing 38-12 this season and just saw a 14-game winning streak come to an end when the officials decided there was no penalty at the end of the Monday night game between New England and Carolina.
This week there are two inter-conference games, the previously mentioned Carolina Panthers visit Miami to face the Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts visit Arizona to face the Cardinals.
The total in the Miami game opened at 40 and has been bet up to 41. Games that have had a posted total of 44.5 or less are 21-5 to the over this season.
The line has also climbed in the Indianapolis game, as it opened at 43.5 and has been bet up to 45. Games with a total of 45 or greater haven’t performed quite as well as the games with low totals, but are still an impressive 17-7 on the season.
Next week’s schedule has two inter-conference games on the schedule, including the Raiders at Dallas on Thanksgiving, along with Buffalo at Atlanta on Sunday.