NFL Wagering Angles Week 1
- Updated: September 4, 2014
The National Football League officially kicks off this week and every game provides a unique challenge for football fanatics as they attempt to find an angle that will provide plenty of value when it comes to betting on the games. These angles can change from week to week and it is important to identify them and acknowledge them if you want to use them to your advantage.
Each week here at Bangthebook.com I will discuss a wagering angle and uncover a wagering option that may have been overlooked. The angle could be a system or even an observation that could provide the smart bettor with some value.
In week one I am going to focus on a system that takes into account playoff teams from a year ago and how they perform in week one.
The league is 0-20-1 ATS as a dog in week one when they were eliminated from the playoffs in the first round last season, as long as the total is higher than 37.
Teams that fit this system don’t even make the games close as they lose by an average of almost nine points per contest.
Last year in the playoffs the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers were all eliminated in the Wild Card round. Technically, the Carolina Panthers lost in their first game of the playoffs and they could fit this angle. But assuming that when the system speaks of the “first round” they mean the wild card round, all of these teams should be considered, but not all of them fit the system.
The Eagles and the Chiefs are a favorite in week one and so the system does not apply to these teams. The Bengals and the Packers are underdogs and the total in each of their games is higher than 37. This would indicate that the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night and the Baltimore Ravens would be plays for week one. However, this system should alert the smart handicapper to another warning sign.
The entire premise of this system is that teams that made the playoffs and lost the first game may be overvalued heading into next season due to their playoff appearance. Although the Chiefs and Eagles are favorites, it could be argued that they are on the “fade” list as well, especially because both of these teams are very popular plays in week one.
Playing this system may not always yield a profit, although the history would suggest that it would, but it does make the football bettor aware of this wagering angle. This angle makes the educated bettor more powerful when looking for an edge and a better handicapper in the future.