NFL Totals Play of the Week – Week 17

Last Updated: 2017-12-29

Trying to keep up with all of the line moves this week in the NFL has been a full-time job, with numbers jumping around as teams announce who is playing and who isn’t. There have been a lot of moves in totals, with nearly every game dropping down a few points.

This week, we’ll look at the game between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots. The Pats are favored by 15 and the total is down to 43.5 after opening at 46.

The Patriots have to win, but we’ve already seen what the Steelers think of the Jets’ chances in this one, as they’ll be starting Landry Jones against the Browns. For New England, getting an early lead and pulling Brady and company in the second half is the ideal situation, but despite that the offense gets all the attention in New England, it’s the team’s defense that is equally responsible for the team’s 12-3 record, as they allow 19 points per game despite allowing 370 yards per game.

New England will do what the Patriots do, at least in the first half, where they average 16.7 points in the first two quarters before quieting down a little bit in the second half. The Pats do run for 4.2 yards per carry, which is good enough to move the chains and keep the clock running in the second half, which is pretty much all they’re trying to do more often than not.

The Patriots do allow 4.8 yards per carry on defense, but face an average of 25 runs per game and 37 passes, as they’re most often playing with a lead and they do have one of the better yards per point averages out there.

Bryce Petty has struggled and doesn’t look to be making any improvement since taking over and the Jets have turned the ball over seven times the past three weeks, scoring 26 points in the process and it’s hard to see them getting more than 13 points in this one against a decent defense.

The Jets have been a fair defensive team and would have even better numbers if the offense was able to provide a bit more help. New York allows just 5.6 yards per play, which is actually better than New England and has kept the team in some games.

Have to think this one lands under the number, as the Pats defense should play a decent game, knowing that if they can shut the Jets down in the first half, their starters might get a bit of a break in the second half and the team knows how important a healthy Brady is for another Super Bowl run.

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