Last Updated: 2017-12-07
Threw in a clunker last week, with the Patriots completely shutting down the Bills and New England content to run out the clock in the second half after getting a decent-sized lead, dropping us to 7-6 on the season with our Totals Play of the Week. This week we’ll look at the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Houston Texans. Houston has been bet up to -3 and the total is 44.
Speaking of field goals, the 49ers couldn’t manage a touchdown last week against the Bears, but still managed to get the win behind five field goals from Robbie Gould and all five were from 35 yards or less, so San Francisco really struggled inside the red zone.
Houston wasn’t much better, scoring just 13 points while gaining 384 offensive yards, while getting a decent performance from Tom Savage, something that hasn’t been said very often since he took over the quarterback duties after Watson was injured.
The 49ers’ defense played its best game of the season last week, with one of Chicago’s touchdowns coming on a punt return and holding the Bears to fewer than 150 totals yards. You can’t expect that type of performance again, even against a Savage-led team.
Houston’s defense looked much better when Watson was playing, as the offense could take time off the clock and keep them on the sideline, but they’ve played decent for the most part since the injury, although they’ve allowed at least 20 points in all five games since the QB switch.
Over the years, AFC teams hosting NFC teams have seen more overs than unders and the trend has become even more pronounced the past couple of years. Since the start of the 2012 season, these games have gone over the total at 94-72-11 (56.6%) clip and they’ve gone over the total 65% of the time since the start of last season.
The fact that both teams have struggled to score in recent games gives a bit of line value here, even though the game was actually bet up from 43 to 44 and given their scoring woes, that move probably wasn’t generated by the betting public.
The Texans scored 31 points their last game at home and while they probably won’t hit that mark again, have a feeling this one is going to land over the total. Garoppolo should been a bit better in the red zone this week and a few of those field goals should turn into touchdowns, so will be on the over in this spot.