Last Updated: 2017-12-01
We’re 7-5 with our NFL Totals of the Week and this week we’ll look at the game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots. New England is favored by 9 on the road and the total is 48.
The Patriots haven’t missed a beat this season and despite the way the Eagles are playing, have to be considered the team to beat in the chase for the Super Bowl. The Pats are averaging 30 points per game and have scored more than 30 in each of their last three, but are still just 6-5 in totals for the season. Part of the reason is New England’s defense playing pretty solid, as well as seeing higher totals in a number of games this season.
New England isn’t exactly tearing it up on the ground, but they haven’t needed to with Tom Brady playing as well as ever and the Pats averaging nearly 300 yards in passing. The Patriots do run the ball a bit, although a lot of that is in the fourth quarter when they’re trying to run out the clock. For the season New England runs 28 times and throws 37 times per game.
On defense, New England isn’t all that good at stopping the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry, but not many teams are in a situation to take advantage of that, as the Patriots average 19 first-half points per game and teams are less likely to run if they’re down a couple of scores. New England’s scoring does tail off a little bit in the second half of games, unless they’re in a tight game.
The Bills are averaging just over 20 points per game, which isn’t all that bad considering they average less than 300 yards of offense, but the team’s defense is really struggling right now, having allowed more than 30 points in three of their last four games, with the lone exception being last week against Kansas City.
The Bills and Pats tend to play either high-scoring or low scoring games. Over the past two seasons there have been two games with 66 or more points and two games with 33 or fewer points. Nothing really in the middle.
But New England is on a roll offensively and away favorites who have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three games have gone over the total 56.1% of the time with a 55-43 record, so will have to take this one to go over the number and hope the Bills can get a few points on the scoreboard.