Last Updated: 2017-11-18
We’re at 5-4 with our NFL Pick of the Week, as the Tennessee Titans allowed the backdoor cover last week and got me by the hook. A number of people might have gotten the push, as there were plenty of places offering Tennessee -3, but still have to mark it down as a loss.
This week’s game involves two of the worst teams in the NFL this year, as the New York Giants visit the San Francisco 49ers. The Giants are favored by 2.5 and the total on the game is 42.5.
The Giants have hit rock bottom in a hurry, winning just one game this season, somehow getting a victory at Denver, which sent the Broncos into a tailspin they haven’t fully recovered from.
The Giants still have Eli Manning at quarterback and he’s never really been the type to lead your team, but hasn’t hurt you much, either. While he’s made some game-winning plays in his career, he’s not the type of quarterback to carry a team and he’s not getting much help this season. It shows in the Giants’ record.
The 49ers are going with CJ Beathard one final week and we’ll likely see Jimmy Garoppolo next week, so there’s a bit of pressure on him, but not much, as he won’t be starting over the team’s new acquisition.
There are a few conflicting trends in this one, as the 49ers have the winless home underdog angle in their favor, but the Giants have a few more based on last week’s thumping, including a 16-8-1 record as a favorite after allowing 50 points, as well as several others.
The teams share some similarities, although that’s not necessarily a good thing, as they have a combined one win between them. The Giants have gone 3-1 ATS on the road, where they’ve shown a tendency to play better, as they average 18.2 and allow 20.2 points away from home, while the 49ers actually play a little bit worse at home, allowing 40 points in two of their last three games and giving up 20 to the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals last week. Sometimes, teams don’t really have a home field advantage, especially when they’re struggling and the fans are quick to turn against them after a couple of bad plays.
Going to tab the Giants in this one, as I think they’ll come away with the win, as the 49ers are pointing towards the future and their new quarterback.