Last Updated: 2019-01-12
A bit of a rarity this weekend as all four underdogs are getting the majority of wagers, which is something you don’t really like to see if you’re an underdog bettor. The Colts have the largest betting percentage at 60%. What is expected is that bettors are on the overs in three of the four games, the lone exception being the Rams and the Cowboys.
For our NFL Total of the Week, we’ll look at the Colts and the Chiefs, where the total has moved from 55.5 to 57 with 57% of the wagers on the under. This time of the year you always need to look at the weather and it’s expected to be in the low 30s with a chance of snow showers, so not the greatest weather around. Even though the Colts’ players are used to the snow, they do play with a retractable roof in Lucas Oil Stadium, so playing in the snow is something a bit different for them.
There’s no question here that Luck is the more experienced quarterback and the Colts will likely put the game on his shoulders, as both teams have had a tendency to throw much more than they run, even though both teams are decent rushing the ball. The Colts averaged 4.3 yards per carry against teams who allowed 4.3 yards per rush and they were also pretty average passing the ball despite all we hear about how great Andrew Luck is. Indianapolis completed a few more passes than opponents allowed, but the yards per pass attempt was exactly the same as foes allowed during the year at 6.9.
Kansas City’s defense was much-maligned during the year, as they should have been, but they were a better unit at home despite allowing 5.1 yards per rush in Kansas City and 5.0 yards per carry overall. The Chiefs were pretty average against the pass, allowing roughly the same completion percentage as team’s averaged for 6.9 per pass attempt.
Offensively, the Chiefs were better than average running the ball, gaining 4.8 yards against teams who allowed 4.5 on the season, while the passing game gained 8.5 yards per attempt and now face a Colts defense that wasn’t quite up to pass defending the pass. Indianapolis was better than average against the run, but the Chiefs should be able to run the ball a little bit.
This could easily be a 38-35 type of game, but will have to take the under 57 in this spot, thinking we may see a few more rushes than normal due to the weather, as well as a slightly more conservative approach to the game by both teams.
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