Last Updated: 2019-02-01
Time to start with the Super Bowl plays and I’ll begin with our NFL Totals Play of the Week, as the Patriots are favored by 2.5 and the total on the game has dropped from 58.5 to 56.5 on pretty good two way action.
Everybody knows the two quarterbacks and what they’re capable of. Tom Brady, dislike him or not, has been going strong for years, while Goff is likely a better quarterback at this point in their respective careers, but is nowhere near Brady on the career charts.
Despite throwing the ball for more than 270 yards per game, both teams also rush the ball well, with New England gaining 131.6 yards per game and the Rams averaging 143 yards per game. The Patriots did get to their figure in part due to running the ball a lot when trying to run out the clock. New England gains just 4.2 yards per rush against teams who allowed 4.4 yards per carry on the season, so they are below average in that regard, but fortunately for them, the Rams allow 4.8 yards per carry.
The Rams averaged 4.9 yards per rush against teams who allowed 4.4 yards per carry and the Patriots allow 4.8 yards themselves, so both teams should have a bit of success on the ground, although the Rams are likely to run the ball earlier than New England.
New England was better defending the pass than the Rams were on the season, as Los Angeles was pretty much average no matter how you look at things. The Pats weren’t bad at all and held teams to less than 60% passing and allowed 6.6 yards per attempt, which was slightly less than their foes averaged.
Both teams have higher-scoring first halves than they do second halves, with the Pats scoring 57% of their points in the first half and allowing 49.5% of their points in the first half, while the Rams have scored 53% of their points in the first half and allowed 50.8% of their points in the first half. The first half total is 27.5, while the second half total is 29.5.
Several people I respect in the NFL like this one to go under the total, but the Patriots allowed more than 30 points in five of their six games played on grass this season, while the Rams’ numbers were virtually identical on grass or turf.
Going to go against the grain here and take the first half over 27.5 at +105 at 5Dimes and hope for a few big plays early.
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