Last Updated: 2017-10-12
We’re now 4-2 with our NFL System Plays of the Week and this week we’ll check in with a pair of plays, both of which fall under the same system. Yes, they’re definitely ugly this week, which is where we’ve had some our best success.
Cleveland at Houston: The Texans were banged up pretty bad last week, losing JJ Watt for the season, the guy who is the heart and soul of the defense. Whitney Mercilus was also lost for the year, although his absence is nothing like that of Watt. The Texans will be facing Kevin Hogan in this one, who gets the start in place of DeShone Kizer, which had to be expected, as Hogan has simply played better when he’s been in the games. Kizer’s 49.5 quarterback rating or three touchdowns against nine interceptions have something to do with it. Hogan has the same number of TD passes with just two picks and a QB rating of over 100.
The Browns are still looking for their first victory of the season, but have played a few close games, along with a couple of clunkers thrown in, but find themselves in a pretty good situation, as winless away underdogs in week six or greater are 61- 33-4 against the spread in their next game. If they are getting double-digits the winning percentage increases a little bit to 30-14-2, so will have to grab the Browns +10 points in this spot.
New York Giants at Denver: It seems like the whole world loves the Broncos in this spot, as many of the touts have already come out big on Denver. They may very well be right in this case, but I’ll defintely be on the other side with the Giants +11.5. The Broncos are coming off a bye week, but have division games against the Chargers and Chiefs on deck, although it would have been slightly better if Kansas City was next week instead of the week after Los Angeles.
While the Giants are 0-5 straight-up, they haven’t really packed it in, losing each of their last three games by five or fewer points and covering the spread twice in the span. More than 70 percent of the bets so far have been coming in on the Broncos, so I’m certainly going to be in the minority on this one, but will take New York plus the points and hope that thy can keep things close against the Broncos.