Last Updated: 2017-12-10
The NFL season has been a bit of a struggle this season, especially after a strong start, and am just 21-20 combined, so need to turn it on these last few weeks and get the record a little closer to what we’ve become accustom to the past few years.
This week, we’ll look at the game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are down to 4.5-point favorites and the total is 44.
The Steelers thumped the Ravens 26-9 on Oct. 1, but Baltimore has been playing better as of late, winning four of its last five to get themselves back into the playoff hunt. The Ravens beat up on a pretty good Detroit team last week, while the Steelers pulled out a late win over the Bengals in their second straight non-covering win.
The Ravens have been +10 in turnovers during their three-game winning streak and that’s something you can’t always count on and surprisingly, they were out-gained in all three games, so even though they’ve had a couple of impressive wins in terms of the scoreboard, it hasn’t been all that impressive.
The Steelers have been a -4 in turnovers the last two games, but managed to win each by three, even though they cost their backers money in the process.
Pittsburgh rushed for 173 yards in the first game and held the ball more than 35 minutes, as it was the Ravens who made three turnovers to none for Pittsburgh, which played a big part in the final outcome.
The Ravens’ victory over the Lions happens to put them in a bit of a negative situation, however, as they broke the 40-point barrier, something which seems to catch of the eye of the betting public. The Ravens are receiving 58% of the bets in the game and the line has dropped from 6 to 4.5, but away teams who won their last game at home while scoring 40 or more points are just 23-40 (36.5) if they are road underdogs getting more than 4 points in their next game. This is the first time this season the situation has popped up.
While I’m not a fan of laying points in the NFL, this one gives the Steelers a decent situational edge, but it’s also a bit of an anti-public play, which never hurts when betting the NFL. So will have to take the Steelers -4.5 for this week’s play.
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