Last Updated: 2018-12-01
For our NFL System Play of the Week, we’ll take a look at the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are favored by 10 and the total on the game is 45.5.
The 49ers are having a long season, although it was pretty much guaranteed to be a disappointing season after the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo and San Francisco has struggled with a 2-9 straight-up record and are just 3-8 against the spread.
The 49ers probably aren’t quite as bad as they may appear, losing four games by four points or less. The 49ers can run the ball a bit, which may work in their favor here, as Seattle hasn’t been all that great at stopping the run. San Francisco averages 28 rushes and 32 passes per game and gains 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, which is better than the 4.6 yard average their opponents have, while passing for 6.9 yards per attempt, slightly below the 7.3 yards their foes average.
On defense, the 49ers are better than average statisically, holding foes to fewer yards on the ground or through the air than they average, but have been hurt by offensive turnovers, giving teams short fields, as San Francisco is -17 in the turnover department, which has had a direct bearing on their defensive yards per point numbers.
Seattle is a little better than average running the ball and also passing, although nothing too exceptional. The ‘Hawks do run more than they throw, which helps them win the time of possession abttle more often that not, which is probably a good thing, as Seattle can struggle with defending the run, as they allow 5.3 yards per rush. Seattle is a little below average against the pass, as well, and being able to chew time off the clock is one way to counter that.
The Seahawks are coming off a brutal stretch with the Chargers, Rams, Packers and Panthers and could be due for a letdown here. It’s important to note the Seahawks haven’t been favored by more than 3.5 points all season and have been underdogs in seven of their 11 games, so laying double digits is a tough task to handle.
The 49ers stunk it up in Tampa last week, but away underdogs who scored fewer than 10 points last game as away underdogs have covered the spread at a 107-80-4 (57.2%) clip over the years and as long as they can get the ground game working early, think they have a chance to make a game of this one, so will grab the 49ers plus the points here.
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