Last Updated: 2017-12-01
We’re treading water with our NFL System Plays of the Week, sitting at just 7-7 and just 20-18 overall in the NFL. Fortunately, college football has been a bit better and we’re at 56.3% combined for college and pro football, which isn’t great, but not that bad either.
This week, we’ll look at the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets. The Chiefs are -3 (-115) and the total on the game is 43.5.
The Chiefs come into the game on a three-game slide, going from 6-2 to 6-5 in a hurry and dropped their last two as roughly 10-point favorites, which puts them in a pretty favorable situation, as teams who lost outright as favorites of 9 or more points, if they dropped their previous game as a favorite, have gone 27-16-1 (62.8%) in their next game, which would favor the Chiefs in this one.
Looking at the line is a little misleading here, as it looks to be a case of a classic reverse line move, but that’s not entirely correct. The Chiefs opened as 5-point favorites and the line immediately dropped to 3, but then some Kansas City money came in to push the line to Kansas City -3 (-115 to -119), depending on your sportsbook.
It isn’t as though the Chiefs were getting blown out in their three losses, losing by a combined 20 points, but they weren’t coming up with the turnovers they were earlier in the season and were -4 in turnovers over the span of their three-game skid.
Kansas City is better offensively and allows fewer points, but more yards on defense and like New York, have dropped five of their last six and each of their last two games. The only victory for both teams in their last six games came when they were a +3 in turnovers.
The Jets also started out pretty well before coming back to earth and have played some close games in their 1-5 slide, although they were underdogs in all six games. They could play well in this one, but still come up on the short side of the scoreboard and the spread ledger.
I’m not typically a fan of laying points on the road and this wasn’t one of the games I had given much though to for the first few days of the week, but started finding enough points in Kansas City’s favor, so will go ahead and lay the field goal with the Chiefs in this spot.