Last Updated: 2017-11-10
Our NFL System Plays of the Week came up short last week and are now our lone sub-.500 play of the seasonn. This week, we’ll look at the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions. The Lions are favored by 11 and the total on the game is 43.5.
After being horrible in the preseason in his coaching career, Hue Jackson decided it was time to win a few games this year and Cleveland finished with a 4-0 record. Once the games began to count, it was the same old Browns and Cleveland is one of two remaining winless teams.
The Browns had last week off to think about how bad they’ve been, getting little from their offense, which averages just 14.9 points per game, while their defense isn’t bad, but is left on the field far too often and is allowing 25.2 points per game. The Browns do have a few 3-point defeats, but are just 2-6 against the spread this season. Cleveland has been particularly bad on the road this year, going 0-4 ATS and are being outscored 17.7 to 30.2.
The Lions are 4-4 and coming off a key win at Green Bay, even if the Packerss were without Aaron Rodgers, as it broke a three-game losing skid and got them back to .500. The Lions haven’t rushed the ball lately, but are still putting points on the board through their passing game.
Coming off their bye week, the Browns find themselves in a situation that has been a decent one, as winless teams from Week 7 and outward have gone 16-3-1 against the spread in their next game. If they are an underdog of 10 or more points, the record has been a perfect 5-0 ATS.
Even teams playing without rest have performed well in Cleveland’s situation, winless underdogs from Week 9 and lateer have posted a 15-3 ATS record when getting 11 or more points, which is another category Cleveland falls into. These teams have won just four of the 18 games, but have managed to keep things close the majority of the time.
The Browns could very well go to Detroit and continue with their road woes and get completely blown out, which is the chance you take when you back such a team. But will still have to grab Cleveland in this spot and hope they’re able to repeat what we’ve seen in the past.