NFL Prop Picks – Conference Championship Games
- Updated: January 19, 2014
It’s playoff time, and that means that the number of games left to handicap on the NFL card is starting to dwindle. Today, we have some great NFL props for the Conference Championship Games covered so you can find an alternative way to beat the NFL betting lines in the postseason.
Tom Brady To Throw For the Most Yards on the Week (+200)
Tom Brady Over 269.5 Passing Yards (-125)
We’re just going to lump these two props together. Just based on the fact that both QB Russell Wilson and QB Colin Kaepernick are 6 to 1 underdogs to be the man with the most passing yards for the week, we are going under the assumption that either Brady or QB Peyton Manning is going to end up throwing for the most yards this weekend. We have to think that New England is going to be playing much of this game from behind, and if that turns out to be the case, we could see Brady throw the ball 50 times or more against the Broncos. With DB Chris Harris tearing his ACL last week, Denver’s already weak secondary is being weakened further, and there is a great chance that WR Julian Edelman and/or WR Danny Amendola could be turned loose by suspect defensive backs. Last week, we saw the Patriots run the ball against the weak Indianapolis Colts, but we just don’t think that’s going to be the case again in this one. Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels knows what he is doing, and there is no doubt whatsoever that he and Brady are going to come up with a game plan where he is going to be throwing the ball a ton and picking on Harris’ replacement and the undersize of the belly of that Denver defense, which has proven to be suspect in the past. Remember that LB Von Miller, who wreaked so much havoc when these two teams played in the regular season, is out for the rest of the year with a torn ACL as well. Brady seems like a slam dunk to get to at least 300 yards on Sunday to us.
LeGarrette Blount Under 72.5 Rushing Yards (-105) – When it seems too easy, it probably is too easy. Blount has had three straight massive games for the Patriots, but we still aren’t convinced that Brady is going to be turning around and handing him the ball at least 15 times in this game as he has started to do regularly. This might be the game where we see the change of pace back like RB Stevan Ridley carrying the load, and we aren’t discounting the possibility of any of the other big time New England backs getting tons of carries as well. Even if New England does rush for 150 yards as a team on Sunday, something which we don’t believe is likely to happen, that doesn’t mean that Blount is going to end up picking up 73 yards on the ground.
Peyton Manning Under 3 Touchdown Passes (-140) – Asking Manning and the Broncos to put up four touchdowns in this game is a tall task in and of itself, not even including the fact that RB Knowshon Moreno could very well end up scoring a TD or two in his own right. Manning is one of the best there has ever been, but he has never been a great postseason quarterback when playing outdoors. Conditions couldn’t possibly be much better than they are in this one, but we still don’t trust that he is going to be able to throw the ball all over the place against a New England secondary which is probably the strong suit of its team outside of Brady. Could we see Manning getting to three scores? Absolutely. But to think that he is going to get to four in this game would be a huge challenge, one which we just don’t think he is up to in this game.
Colin Kaepernick Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-125) – It’s a lot to ask for anyone to get to 38 rushing yards against the Seahawks defense, but Kaepernick very well could be the man to do it. The one thing that we have noticed in his games against Seattle is that Kaepernick has had the ability to move around in and out of the pocket, and that’s where he has successfully made his plays with his legs. He is bound to get out onto the boundary. As we have seen with Kaepernick before, this 38 yard mark we are searching for could come in just one carry, or it could take just two or three. History suggests that Kaepernick is going to have to be using his legs quite a bit, and the book on him is that he is a one-read quarterback who looks to take off after that. We think that will play into our hands on Sunday.
Russell Wilson Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-160) – It’s a chalky play for sure, but with the way the 49ers have played defensively of late, we aren’t all that sure that the Seahawks are going to score two touchdowns, let alone score two passing touchdowns with a quarterback who has been trending downward. There are going to be games where Wilson scores two TDs or more, but it hasn’t happened all that often, let alone happening against a team which is this hot and a defense which is this hot. The former Wisconsin Badger might get to one score, but we think he is very likely to end up without anything more than that through the air on Sunday.