Last Updated: 2019-11-17
The circus of a season continues and I’m just happy to lean back and crack open a Claw to watch the havoc ensue. Maybe we’ll see an actual murder on the field, or a referee get head butted or maybe Jameis Winston pisses on a cheerleader. No matter what, there will be drama this week.
Speaking of getting pissed on, last week was not a good one for my bets. Although we crushed the Steelers game cashing on the 1st half under and the total sacks, we lost a few in the Dal/Min game and David Montgomery no showed in the passing attack as Tarik Cohen took in 4 receptions. My favorite bet of the week was the Patrick Peterson tackles going over, but that was ruined with his game ending injury in the 2nd half. Shit happens sometimes betting overs.
Pretty excited about this week’s card as there are a ton of great games I’m looking forward to watching and betting. I’m intrigued about MNF and am hoping for Mahomes to test out his arm for a 100yd pass in the thin Mexican air. I don’t see lines but I’ll be looking at KC longest touchdown of the game and likely take the over on longest TD of the game if it anything under 50 just for fun.
Good luck this weekend!
Betting and winning NFL sides and totals long term is no easy feat so if you like to get funky with your bets then this is your spot. Every week I’ll be posting some of my favorite derivative bets, which may include things like team totals, player props, team props, first half unders, first downs or anything else I think I can make money on. The key here is discipline, I usually bet these at a quarter or half stake and I spend a lot of timing searching different books for the best number. Tip – there’s a huge variation on player props between shops. Follow me on Instagram @sportsbetting100to10k for more last minute plays.
Baltimore at Houston – Sunday Early Game
Marquise Brown over 56.6 receiving yards
This will be fun. There has been some steam to the over on this game and some recent love for Houston has popped up in the betting markets. I for one am not going to stand in the way of the Lamar and the Ravens machine and when I do, it won’t be with Bill O’Brien. I think the Ravens offense hits 28+ pts and has their day with this defense. The Texans defense comes in at #17 in DVOA, below average in yards allowed per game and near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed per game. And that’s all with JJ Watt playing and a healthy defense, which is not currently the case. The Texans strength is against the run and the Ravens bring such a unique running game with Lamar, it’s hardly feasible to think they’ll be able to stop them. The Texans have some injuries in their secondary – but regardless of whether Roby or Gipson play it doesn’t really matter as they are not great players and speedster wide out Marquise Brown will have a field day against this wounded pass rush and slow defensive back group.
I had considered Mark Andrews and the over as well as Houston is weak against the tight end and Andrews has the potential for a monster day but I’m holding off due the increased usage of late from fellow tight ends Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst. It’s tempting but I’m passing. I do like Watson to put up some points but without Will Fuller I’m staying away from their team total and touchdown over bets that I was considering. If Houston can keep up or at least make it 20pts then it will keep the Ravens throwing which bodes well for our Hollywood Brown to cash.
Buffalo at Miami – Sunday Early Game
Miami team total under 16.5 pts
Devin Singletary over 57.5 rushing yards
There sure is a lot of buzz on the Dolphins of late. They’ve won two in a row and are playing hard and keeping games close. You’ve got to hand it to this coaching staff and believe it or not, Fitzpatrick is sporting some pretty impressive individual numbers. The problem here is that they are without their top RB and WR option and are up against a top 3 defensive side in yards and points allowed per game. The top two options for Miami are DeVante Parker and tight end Mike Gesicki. Buffalo hasn’t allowed a TE to go over 50yds this year and Parker will be matched up against corner Tre’Davious White who hasn’t been burned for a touch down since last year (week 14)
Buffalo is a phony six win team but they should be able to play a dull slow game here and pick up the win. The Bills running focus has shifted over the season from once leaning on Frank Gore to slowly favoring rookie Devin Singletary. This matchup is promising for the rookie both due to his increased usage and the likely game script of them playing with the lead. The Bills are very conservative and run heavy with a lead and that bodes well for Singletary who racked up 95yds on 20 carries in their win over Washington. That game is an outlier compared to earlier games but I’m still confident against the 3rd worst run defense in the league giving up 146yds per game. If you disagree with my take on the game and think it may play a bit more open or that Gore gets some more carries in his return to Miami, then consider Singletary’s reception prop at over 2.5 catches as he’s caught 3+ balls in his last three games. I’m sticking to being a Debbie downer and am expecting a grotesque match of running and missed completions that I will be happy to ignore until I see the payout on my betting app.
New England at Philadelphia – Sunday Afternoon
Julian Edelman over 6.5 receptions
James White over 47.5 receiving yards
What a beauty this game is. I’ve made a pretty mature and grown up decision to not make a major bet in this game. You heard it correctly, no side or total bet here. I’m going to pass and not sweat this one out and just eat some ketchup chips and wipe my dirty fingers on my sock. While I do that and erode my lips and cut my gums, I’ll be routing on Mr. Reliable Julian Edelman to play a huge part of this game. He’ll be the top target along with James White as the other Patriot receivers and tight ends haven’t been reliable. The Eagles have played the run well so I suspect Coach Belichick has spent the bye week looking at areas of weakness to target and that will be up against the Eagles secondary and on average allows six catches to running backs per game (Hello James White) The Pats will take this game seriously after a loss, after a bye and facing an Eagles team that beat them in the Super Bowl not that long ago. They may not have the weapons they use to on offense but you know they’ll have a good plan. The narrative this week has been the difference in success rate this week for the Patriots when they play hurry up (Turbo) vs a normal huddled offense and the numbers are staggering. Belichick is smart and looks at these things and may attack this defense in Turbo mode which means lots of classic Brady short and quick passes down the field…..once again….. hello James White and Julian Edelman. I don’t know who wins and don’t care but these guys will eat.
Chicago at Los Angeles Rams – Sunday Night Game
Total sacks over 4.5
Rams under 23.5 points
I’m back to the well again with the Rams and some sacks. We cashed it last week easily with 7 sacks versus a total of 3.5 and even with an increased line, I like it. The Rams offensive line is a disaster of injuries and Goff doesn’t handle pressure well. Both teams come in at #9/#10 in the league averaging just under 3 sacks per game. The Bears number may be flawed slightly as they’re not as dominant after the loss of Akiem Hicks. The Bears give up 3 sacks a game which is promising for the likes of Aaron Donald. The stats for the Rams are better at 1.8 sacks allowed per game but they’ve had some major OL injuries so they are worse than that. The fact that I don’t trust both QB’s to handle pressure makes this all the better. This is pretty much Aaron Donald pissing next to Khalil Mack and them comparing and competing on size, girth and stream strength = no doubt this equals more sacks.
Once again, I’ve flip flopped on who I like in this game but generally lean towards the Rams in a tight low scoring affair. The Rams struggled last week without deep threat Brandin Cooks while Kupp was double teamed and held catch less. If the Bears are smart, they’ll execute the same plan as the Steelers did. Gurley has looked much better of late and the Bears run defense will be without linebacker Danny Trevathan so there’s potential for success on the ground. I’m leery of counting on Gurley due to Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson getting some carries as well. I do think the Rams will find some success on offense but based on how I see the flow of this game going, I think 23.5 pts is too high. Even with the potential of a Trubisky pick six, I can see a Rams 20-16 win here.
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