Last Updated: 2018-12-29
If you’ve ever watched Homeland or House of Cards then you know all about spy tactics and back room dealings. That’s what we’re in for here in with Week 17 – lots of unknowns and hours trying to decipher press conferences. If you can find that missing nugget of information from the coaching staff, beat reporter or team physician then you’re gold and you’ve found your edge. That’s why some bettors view this as one of their top betting weekends while others only place a few small wagers. It’s like when you’re at a party and you keep noticing various babes going up and down the stairs and in and out of all the rooms and then finally realize you’re in a middle of an orgy and aren’t participating. Either you’re in the know or you don’t know.
One way to combat these unknowns, which may include… player injuries, resting starters, will the QB play one quarter or the full game, and scoreboard watching is to use derivative bets instead of the usual sides or totals. This can include a bet on the 1st quarter, the 1st half or even the 2nd half. These can also be put into a correlated parlay meaning that if the Chiefs are winning by 24 at half time (1st half bet) then you may want to bet and parlay that with the Broncos in the 2nd half as it’s likely the Chargers won’t bother with their starters since they know they can no longer win the division. It can be pretty fun but my challenge here is that many of these lines aren’t available at the time of writing this. Which means that I can’t see all the team totals, the 1st quarter or 2nd half betting lines and I can’t bet player prop ‘unders’ right now. I will for sure be on the lookout for these and some live betting opportunities and will post them on my Instagram account @sportsbetting100to10k.
We’ve been on fire of late, going 6-1 last week just missing out on a clean sweep as Dalvin Cook took the last few drives off and finished a few yards short – ouch. This means we’re 20W-10L since week 13 (66%)
Great news! I’ll be back for the playoffs so check back here next weekend for what should be a killer wild card weekend. Good luck out there…..
San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams – Sunday 4:25pm (EST)
Have some fun here people! Yes, lots about betting can be referencing investments, statistical analysis, analytics, probability, positive EV, bank roll management, blah blah blah. It’s Week 17 and Aaron Donald has a chance to break the single season sack record so if you can find a Rams team sacks ‘over’ (Donald needs 3.5 / 49ers give up 3 sacks/game) and you plan on watching this game then bet it and sit back and watch Nick Mullins run for his life!
This is another tough game to handicap as the Rams can clinch the #2 seed with a win or a Bears loss. Again, they may pull the plug in the second half depending what’s happening which makes this game hard to bet. The 49ers will be without starting RB Matt Breida and WR’s Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin. This is trouble and leaves them just with TE George Kittle as their down field weapon. I do like the 49ers running back Jeff Wilson Jr on Sunday against a Rams defense coming in at 22nd in the league against the run. Coach Shanahan should be able to draw up some useful plays for Junior and I like the low totals the books are putting on this one. Again, the Rams may throw in their subs in the 4th quarter (excluding Donald) which is perfect for a garbage time 25yd draw play to cash this ticket.
BETS – LA Rams team sacks over 2.5 (No official line out yet, but Rams average 2.5 a game)
Jeff Wilson Jr over 60.5 rushing yards at -115 via Heritage/Betonline.ag
BETTING LEANS – George Kittle is also going for a record (tight end season yardage record) so he’ll be a major focus for this game. He’s up against KC’s Travis Kelce for the same record so keep an eye out for both their totals on Sunday morning.
Cleveland at Baltimore – Sunday 1pm (EST)
Its win and in for the Ravens at home Sunday afternoon and that’s the side I’m leaning on. I don’t have 100% confidence yet in Lamar Jackson for a 4th quarter ‘season on the line’ drive so I’m sticking to a first half play. I think it may take a bit for the Browns defense to adjust and feel confident in Harbaugh setting up Jackson’s first few offensive drives. The Ravens should lean heavily on the run where the Brown’s rank 24th in the league in yards per game (124.5ypg) allowed, which will also eat up the clock and keep Mayfield and company on the side line. I’m avoiding player props here as the run game will be a mixture of Edwards, Jackson and Dixon.
I know everyone has been all over the Brown’s offense of late (including myself) but I’m just not as optimistic this week. Don’t forget that 4 of their last 5 wins have come against the Bengals twice, the Panthers and the Falcons….all looser than the Kardashians. The Ravens defense gives up LESS than 100yds per game on average than the Brown’s and are in a better spot here so barring an absolute collapse by Lamar Jackson, I like the Ravens in the 1st half in what could be a 13-7 score line.
BETS – Baltimore -3.5pts in the 1st Half at -100 via Heritage
Jacksonville at Houston – Sunday 1pm (EST)
For the love of god, here we are again and I’m doing it. I’m on the Jags. What kind of sicko am I.
Do I secretly love Blake Bortles? Well I’m married with a kid so I don’t think so.
Hear me out…..I’m not saying the Jags are going to go into Houston (important game for them) and win but I do think they’ll play recklessly enough to put up some points. I’m hoping Houston loses as I have a mid-season Colts to win the AFC South ticket. God, talking about a futures bet is almost as annoying as talking about a fantasy or poker bad beat. Sorry. Bortles is back baby! He came in last week for a TD drive and it seemed to motivate the players so he’ll be scrambling around and hurling it all over the place. They won’t have Fournette or Hyde playing which means it’s him and TJ Yeldon. Yes, that’s good news for this weekend. This means less running, less predictability and more passing. Some of Blake’s better ‘statistical’ games this year have come with Yeldon as the starting back. Gimme the Jags team total over 16.5pts. If I’m wrong I’ll get a Bortles tattoo on my belly button. No I won’t.
BET – Jacksonville Jaguars team total over 16.5pts at -110 via Bet365
BETTING LEANS – While we’re at it, I may also consider the Texans team total under 23.5pts and may well even look at a Bortles over if the yardage is in the low 200’s. I’ve added a lean on Donte Moncrief if I can find a shop posting a prop in the 35yd range. We’ll see Sunday morning. I think the Jags defense can stop Lamar Miller, put some pressure on Watson and Ramsay ‘may’ be able to slow down Hopkins while their other receivers are wounded.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver – Sunday 4:25pm (EST)
This game is too tricky to waste a ton of energy writing about as we don’t really know yet how the Chargers will approach it. They need to win, yet once they find out KC is pummeling Oakland then they may relax and pull their starters knowing they have to play on the road possibly next Saturday. I thought about the Chargers 1st half but am holding out – I don’t like the -3.5 and I don’t trust Coach Lynn’s use of his brain.
Either way you look at it, I think the Broncos will put in a decent effort at home. They’ll have to keep up with the Chargers offense all game or they’ll be playing catch up in the second half against a second string defense. To me that means that QB Case Keenum will be throwing the ball lots. Let me remind you that Phillip Lindsay is not playing. Case has had 23+ completions in each of their last three games so I like another one here as he’ll try not to leave too dirty a taste in the mouths of 70,000 Bronco supporters in their home finale.
BET – Case Keenum over 22.5 completions at -115 via Heritage/Betonline.ag
BETTING LEAN – I was initially interested in slot receiver DaeSean Hamilton here but the only lines I could find were over 6.5 catches or over 50.5 receiving yards – both paying juice. He hasn’t reached the 50 yard make yet this year but I’ll pull the trigger on this if I find a total around 43ish yards on Sunday
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