NFL Prop Betting Picks Super Bowl LIII

Last Updated: 2019-02-01

We’ve arrived folks. Propapalooza. Propageddon. Whatever you want to call it, we’re in the Super Bowl of Prop Betting as we speak. I’ve locked myself in solitude for 7 straight days living off of kimchi and brazzers to bring you the most comprehensive guide to props the world has ever seen.

I’m sharing 15 bets with you that I’ll be playing (ranging from 0.25 to 1 unit betting size) but that’s not to say I’d suggest betting all these. Many of these props are correlated (see the bets under the SCORING section) so it’s entirely feasible to have just one bet there and that could be the 2nd half point total being higher than the 1st half.

Last week was a down week with only two winners – Dee Ford tackles under and the 1st half under in the Saints game. Overtime killed the Goff under, Ted Ginn came up one reception short and Burkhead stole some receptions from James White. That drops us to roughly a 58% win rate over the last 8 weeks.

To be candid here, this is a tough game to handicap. The lines are tight and any advantage you had as a bettor relating to the side or total is likely gone (Pats opened +1) Which is why many professionals are focusing on props as there are still some edges to be found within the gluttony of 1000’s of betting options – some legit and some gimmicky as hell. Roughly 70% of the capital I’m allocating to this game will be on props – some of which I grabbed last week (James White over 5.5 rec’s).

To make matters more difficult, projecting how these two great coaches will game plan is an impossible feat as they are both fantastic at mid game adjustments. Coach McVay and Wade Phillips won’t allow James White to catch 15 passes so these teams will have multiple game plans and options depending what’s working and what’s not. Perhaps it’s Edelman and Gronk over the middle or perhaps they want to attack Marcus Peters so that could be Hogan, Dorsett or even Patterson. This should be a chess match for the ages.

Simple Handicap = Both teams are awesome. Both offensive lines are great. Both quarterbacks struggle facing pressure. The defense that can create the most pressure on the opposing QB wins.

I’ll be adding some additional props and cross sport bets on my Instagram page @sportsbetting100to10k this weekend. Check it out.

That’s a wrap – Good luck this weekend and thanks for supporting this article all year!

Tips for your PROPS this weekend:

  • There’s only one football. It’s unlikely everyone will go over. Cheering against human achievement can sometimes be more profitable
  • You’ve bet smart and responsibly all year to build a bankroll, don’t blow it trying to guess Adam Levine’s shoe colour
  • You have access to 20 weeks of accumulated football analytics along with 2 weeks of match up specific data so put in the research before you bet (reading this article is a great start)
  • There can be a huge discrepancy in lines between casinos, bookies and online shops so look around
  • Some bets can have a complicated grading system, don’t bet something you don’t fully understand
  • Props are fun. If you’re not a professional bettor or making large bets then have fun with it. Make bets that fulfill your narrative for the game as that will enhance your viewing experience. (Eg, I was on the Pats last week and bet the under on Dee Ford tackles. Tons of fun for me!)
  • Betting a little to win a lot is fun but not always the best long term strategy
  • Again, if you’re betting small sums of money for fun, get these bets in and done by Saturday so you can chill Sunday morning with friends and family and not scramble around half cut betting from your phone in a bar.
  • And most importantly…..if you and your buddies are Pats fans then don’t bet the Brady under and be the guy at the party talking about your bet all day, annoying your friends and routing against your team

DEFENSIVE PROPS

John Johnson over 6.5 total tackles and assists / +100 / Bet 365

Johnson is the starting safety for the Rams and is their second leading tackler. He’s amassed 7 or more combined tackles in 6 of his last 10 games and I’m confident that will continue on Sunday. On its own, that stat is not nearly enough to convince me of this play but I’ve dug a bit deeper and let’s just say that opposing safeties have been busy versus the Pats. Case in point, since Week 12 an opposing team’s safety has had 7+ tackles versus this offense. Here are the two most recent playoff games:

AFC Championship: KC leading tackler: Safety D. Sorenson 14 tackles

AFC Divisional: LAC leading tackler: Safety J. Addae 13 tackles

 

PLAYER PROPS:

Brandin Cooks under 72.5 receiving yards / -110 / 5dimes

Robert Woods over 5.5 receptions / -138 / Bet365

First wide receiver to hit 35 yards is Julian Edelman at -125 vs Brandon Cooks / Bet365

In Belichick fashion, we’re expecting to see him try and clamp down on the opposing teams strengths. Last week, he kept Kelce and Tyreek from dominating the game and the early reports suggest he’ll target Brandon Cooks on Sunday. Cooks is the most explosive deep threat for LA so expect Stephon Gilmore to line up against him and show him a lot of man or press coverage which he’s historically much weaker against compared to zone. Can’t forget to mention that Gilmore was also #1 in catch rate allowed, 7th in yards per target allowed and 9th in passer rating allowed.

To counter this, I’m taking the over on Robert Woods who should see more action acting more as their shorter possession receiver. He also struggles against man/press compared to zone but I still think he’ll have a successful day due to Coach McVay’s ability to scheme his receivers open. The Patriots numbers are a bit softer in the 5-10yd pass range so there will be an opportunity for Woods to rack up some passes, provided Reynolds doesn’t hijack all those looks.

Sony Michel 1 or more receptions / +120 / 5Dimes

James Develin over 1.5 rushing yards / +150 / Bet365

The Rams defense is softest against 21 personnel (2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WR’s) allowing a 50% success rate while the Pats use this formation more than most teams and they’ve been doing this for years. When running from this formation, it shows off their versatility as they can prance out a variety of combinations (Sony and Develin, White and Develin, Sony and White or Sony and Burkhead). To a defense, this appears as a running situation, however, they actually throw from this formation 20% of the time. Throw in some play action and this is very hard to defend….hence their continued success with less familiar running backs. I can’t predict what the greatest Coach of our era will do but I think he’ll keep the Rams guessing and surprise them with unique looks, which may easily include a Develin rush (he had 2 vs the Chargers) and a Michel reception (1 vs the Chargers and 7 in the regular season)

Cordarrelle Patterson wins MVP / + 12500 / Bovada

Say what? Well imagine scorching Marcus Peters for a 75yd TD and then returning a kickoff for another score. That’ll do it. Unlikely, but $8 pays $1000.

 

SCORING PROPS

More points scored in the 3rd Quarter vs the 1st Quarter / -160 / 5Dimes

Rams score more points in the 2nd half than the 1st half

Goff throws for more yards in the 2nd half than the 1st half / -140 / Bovada

Patriots over 1.5 touch downs in the 1st half / -130

The second half is higher scoring than the first half

Last Scoring play in the first half is a field goal or safety / -110 / Bovada

These plays all follow my narrative that I think the Patriots get out to an early lead while the Rams play a bit conservative to start, making the first two quarters relatively low scoring. The 1st half under opened at 29.5 and it got hit hard on the under and now sits in the 27 range so that’s a pass for me. I would’ve played 28.5 hard on the under. I like the game to open up in the second half with both coaches making adjustments and the Rams to close the distance on the points. If either team is left with the ball with ~45 seconds remaining in the half, they’re capable of getting the needed yards for a field goal attempt.

1Q under 10.5 points combined with a New England Win / +280 / Bet365

New England Half Time and Full Time Result / +150

New England has scored just 3 total points in the 1st quarter in the 8 Super Bowl appearances in the Brady/Belichick era. That’s a lot of 0’s. There have been 0 points put up in the 1st quarter in 2 of the last 4 Super Bowls while seeing less than 9pts in 11 of the last 17. I actually like NE to put up an early TD this year so I’ll be looking for a 7-3 exact score prop. I think they’ll come out hard wanting to take the lead and force Goff to play from behind and chase. The Rams will make some half time adjustments and play a much better second half but I still like the Pats to hang on. You can find the 1Q under 10.5pts in the -130 to -160 range but I like combining it with a Patriots win for better odds. Take away the spreads and you can also combine the first half and the final game result into one plus money bet.

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