Last Updated: 2019-01-19
Think back to your youth…..back to a time of innocence and stupidity and to a period of your life when that first girlfriend of yours controlled your brain and every thought. You didn’t care, she can have the brain you thought; you just lost your virginity. Time would pass and soon you found yourself apologizing over and over again even somehow after getting cheated on. That’s the level of manipulation we’re seeing this week with the Patriots playing up the “we’re the underdogs” and the “bet against us” narratives. Sorry Edelman, we’re grown up now and we’re not falling for your madness. Speaking of madness, were you aware that Kansas City is in Missouri and not Kansas?!
I’ve yet to put in a large investment with either of these games but I think I’ve found a few good prop and derivative bets to warrant some action. Last week was the first down week in a while, winning four plays and losing five. We had some no brainers come in with the Pats -2.5 (1H), Michael Thomas going buck wild and James White catching 15 passes while just missing out with the Mahomes and Cooks overs. That puts us at 32W-20L over the last 7 weeks – a not too shabby 62%
We’re going to finish strong with a handful of plays here but let me remind you that just because we’re in the Conference Championship and just because there are only 3 games left, it doesn’t mean you should be tripling your wagers and unit size. Lexi Belle wouldn’t be impressed with you entering her room tripping over yourself, fumbling around and frothing at the mouth and neither will your bankroll. Temper yourself this weekend.
And what a weekend it is! We’ve got some amazing coaches left (see ya Lynn, so long Garrett) along with the four highest scoring teams in the league. (PPG) Throw in numerous offensive mismatches and some crazy home/away and hot/cold splits and we’ve got ourselves some football.
Here are six plays I’m making half unit wagers on and since I hate the possibility of tying, I’m adding a bonus play and taking the under 284.5yds passing yards for Rams QB Jared Goff. More bets to follow on game day @sportsbetting100to10k on Instagram.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans – Sunday 3:05pm (EST)
It’s practically game day and it’s entirely possible you just want some picks so I’ll go light on the trends and analytics. If you’re looking for some great write ups and analysis, click on the above NFL tab and check out some of the other articles here on this site – there are some fantastic and thorough breakdowns available.
The Rams coaching staff is smart and they’ll be doing their best to limit Goff’s exposure to high risk and high pressure scenarios. They’ve been practicing this for weeks, hence, the addition of Chubbs Anderson as their back up RB to give Gurley some rest. I loved the Rams offense at the start of the year but fear it may be too run heavy Sunday afternoon even though the Rams are aware that the Saints are better stopping the run than the pass. This game has the potential to turn into a wild shootout and it may but I feel that style of play won’t come out until the second half so I’ll be on the first half under.
I have to think the Rams will do their best to shut down Michael Thomas this week and that will be with Aqib Talib following him around. It won’t stop him completely but should limit the amount of targets a bit and force Brees to throw elsewhere. I barely remember any other Saints players last week as Thomas was that dominant but Kamara still managed over 100 combined yards and Ted Ginn was targeted 7 times and was wide open on that first ‘under thrown’ play of the game. Ginn provides some speed and big play ability and I think this total is too low for a guy who should see some good looks on Sunday.
Mark Ingram wasn’t great at the end of the season and if you take out his big run last week he would’ve run 8 times for 18 yards. Kamara will be the horse tomorrow, averaging just under 5yds per play, he’ll be relied on as the number one back and should get upward of 15 carries. The Rams run defense has improved but is not elite by any means making this total too low. Grade 3 math tells me that 15 X 4.7 = 70 yards! Cash it.
BET — First Half under 28pts at even money Bodog/Bovada
BET — Ted Ginn over 3.5 catches at -114 via Heritage/Betonline.ag
BET — Alvin Kamara over 60.5 rushing yards at -120 via Bet365
New England at Kansas City – Sunday 6:40pm (EST)
When you visited Amsterdam in college and had a great time behind the red door #4 and are making a return visit – guess what – you’ll hit up door #4 again and that’s what I’m doing with James White. I understand Andy Reid will devise a plan to limit him in space but White is too versatile to completely shut down. If the quick outs aren’t working, they’ll move him to the slot. I trust Belichick and McDaniels to put forward a solid game plan and the quick outs that worked against the Chargers pass rush should be back again as the pass rush is the major straight of the KC defense. Sure, we could see Belichick do something crazy and use White as a decoy all night but I still feel like 6 catches would be within grasp, especially against the worst group of linebackers left in the playoffs.
The Patriots defense can be run on and the last time these teams faced the Chiefs averaged 5.5yds per rush so they should have some success here Sunday night. With all the focus on Kelce, Mahomes and Hill, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Patriots welcome the run to avoid the big play. Williams looked fantastic last week and the return of Spencer Ware shouldn’t be a huge deal so I expect him to eat on the ground and in the air. On Sunday I’ll be looking out for a total combined rushing prop for both teams as both teams should have some success.
The Chiefs play a base 3-4 defense and use their outside linebackers heavily in the pass rush, which is why KC is tied for tops in the league in sacks per game at 3.2. Dee Ford comes in at #2 in sacks for KC but what does Dee Ford hate doing? Tackling! He loves the pass rush and wants pressures, sacks, fumbles and all the glory. Not tackles and certainly not in the cold. In 16 games this year, he put up 42 tackles and 13 assists. In their earlier outing vs NE, Ford finished with just one assist, not even a solo tackle and this was in a game where the Pats ran for 173 yards and threw for 340. Out of 17 games played this year, Ford has hit the 5 tackle mark just 6 times. At night, at home, and on primetime TV, Ford will be hunting for headlines looking for the strip sack for a TD not chasing Edelman and White around. Gimme the under!
BETS – James White over 5.5 catches at -115 via 5Dimes
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BETS – Damien Williams over 64.5 rushing yards at -110 via 5Dimes
BETS – Dee Ford under 4.5 tackles at -125 via Bet365