NFL Pick of the Week – Week 6
Last Updated: 2017-10-12
We fell to 3-2 with our NFL Pick of the Week last week, as the Cowboys gave Aaron Rodgers a little bit too much time at the end of the game. It was one of those things you could see coming by Green Bay’s second play of the winning drive. But that was last week, and this week we’ll look at the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Washington Redskins. Washington is favored by either 10 (-120) or 10.5 (-105), but we’ll use 10 here, even though most of you already know I’ll be on the underdog.
We’ll use the same situation that we used for our NFL System Play of the Week, taking winless road underdogs in Week 6 onward, where we have a 61-33-4 record and one that increases to 30-14-2 if they are an underdog of 10 or more points. But there are a few other factors in the 49ers’ favor, even though they’re the infamous West Coast team playing an early game in the East.
You have to go all the way back to 1994 to find a team that lost four consecutive games by a field goal or less, which is exactly what the 49ers have managed to do. They’ve had several opportunities over the span to win a game, but have been unable to do so. It’s also the third straight road game for San Francisco and while that was at one time and great go-against situation, it’s basically 50-50 the past few years, as players are not only more accustom to traveling, they also travel better than they did in the old days.
From Washington’s perspective, this is a game that could be hard to get up for, especially if you look at their next three opponents – at Philadelphia on Monday night, Dallas and Seattle. Minnesota and New Orleans are waiting after that before a rematch with Dallas. This is the first time all season the Redskins have been favored and teams who were underdogs in their last four games and are now thrust into the favorite’s role have gone just 129-169-6 (43.3%) over the years and that number drops to 11-18-2 if they are favored by a touchdown or greater. Double-digit favorites are just 1-4 ATS but now our sample size has been reduced too much and losses any effectiveness.
The 49ers could very well come out and get thumped, but I think they’ll keep playing hard and can at least stay within the generous spread in this one.
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