NFL Pick of the Week – Week 14

Last Updated: 2018-12-07

For our NFL Pick of the Week we’ll jump to the Monday Night Football game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is favored by 3 and the total on the game has dropped to 45.

The Vikings enter this one with a 6-5-1 record and would desperately like to have the tie against Green Bay back, as they’re going to have to finish the season strong to have a return to the playoffs. The Vikings are going to have come up big against the upper teams, however, as they have lost their last three games as underdogs, dropping games to the Patriots, Bears and Saints, sandwiched by wins over the Packers and Lions. If the Vikings want to make the playoffs they need to show they can beat playoff-caliber teams otherwise they deserve to stay home.

Kirk Cousins has done a decent job for Minnesota and is completing 71% of his passes, but unless the Vikings can do a little more on the ground they’re not to be much better than an average offense. You’re not going to throw 41 times and run 21 times in the NFL and be all that successful. Teams like Kansas City, the Rams, the Chargers and the Patriots all rush for more than 120 yards. The Vikings rush for 86.

Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been what it was the past few seasons, either, allowing too many points based on the yards they allow. They need the big stops more often than they’re getting them.

Seattle is a solid running team, but the Vikings are good at stopping the run and it may be up to Russell Wilson to lead the Seahawks past Minnesota in this one. He has had a few big games when the ground game is struggling. most recently at Carolina.

Seattle’s defense is allowing yards, but not points, as last week’s game with San Francisco shows, when they allowed 432 yards but just 16 points after coming up with some turnovers, but if they allow that many yards to the Vikings, they’ll be in trouble here, but they may be anyway, as home favorites who allow more than 380 passing yards and win have posted a 20-29 ATS record the following week.

The Vikings are a better team than they’ve shown, while Seattle may be getting a little too lucky, having won their last two games while getting out-gained, so will go ahead and take the Vikings in this one.

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