NFL Pick of the Week – Week 14

Last Updated: 2017-12-07

Just 7-6 with our NFL Pick of the Week, and looking for a decent finish to the NFL season. This week, we’ll look at the game between the Tennessee Titans and the Arizona Cardinals. The Titans are favored by 3 and the total on the game is 44.

The first thing that grabs your attention when looking at this game is the betting is pretty even, something you really wouldn’t expect when you have an 8-4 team playing a 5-7 squad and the line is only a field goal. Especially after the Cardinals were thumped last week by the Rams and the Titans took care of business against the Texans, getting the win and the cover.

Tennessee gets a bad rap as road favorites, but they have gone 3-3 in that role dating back to the start of last year, although it’s pretty clear they aren’t quite the same team on the road as they are in front of the home fans. The Titans are 5-1 straight up at home this season and 3-3 when the visiting team and have struggled with the likes of the Browns and the Colts the past six weeks in addition to getting blown out by Pittsburgh. Now, Tennessee must take to the road for the third time in four weeks and are coming off of nine straight conference games.

Arizona’s playoff hopes went down the tubes with the injury to Carson Palmer, even though he hadn’t played as well as he has in the past and Arizona needs to look towards getting their future quarterback. The Cardinals tried to make some moves to keep themselves in the playoff hunt, such as getting Adrian Peterson, and while they’re technically still alive for the postseason, that will likely change over the next few weeks.

The Cardinals are in a slight favorable situation regarding teams playing three straight home games and losing their last one, as they are 33-25 (56.9%) when made home underdogs and 8-5 (61.5%) if they are getting a field goal or less.

Teams are also 22-12 when playing their third straight home game in which they were a home underdog in all three games and the record is 5-2 if they are getting a field goal or less in that third game.

The Titans look to be a bit of an obvious play here, but the betting patterns and the trends will have me on the Cardinals +3 in this spot.

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