Last Updated: 2019-01-20
For our NFL Pick of the Week we’ll naturally look at New England at Kansas City, as we used the other game for our System Play of the Week. The Chiefs are -3 (-115) and the total on the game has climbed back up a little bit to 56.5. The total came out at 58.5, but weather reports helped drive the number all the way down to 54.5 before it’s climbed after bettors realized the weather wasn’t going to be as bad as originally thought.
It’s not often the Patriots aren’t the better offensive team when they meet somebody, but little question the Chiefs are better offensively, averaging 7 more points per game than the Pats and 26 more total yards. New Englad is better on defense, which has been underrated once again due to Tom Brady, although a number of New England’s better defensive performances came against some weak offenses at home, although the Chiefs also helped out their home numbers with a couple of soft foes, themselves.
The Chiefs are getting 57% of the wagers in this one, which is a bit unusual just due to the fact that we’re not used to seeing New England as an underdog and they’ve typically been a pretty public team.
While the Patriots are better on defense overall, the Chiefs do have better numbers at home, while New England’s aren’t nearly as good when they’re forced to travel. The Pats allow 24.0 on the road and 17.9 at home, while Kansas City allows 17.4 points at home and 34.6 away from home.
New England was just 3-5 straight-up on the road this season while favored in every game, which isn’t the case here.
The spread is just 3 in part due to what New England has done in recent years. If you just looked at the numbers, particularly home and away splits, you would think Kansas City would be favored by close to a touchdown, so there is a little bit of value with the Chiefs in this one, even though New England is definitely the more experienced team of the two.
It’s never easy to go against Tom Brady and company in a big game, especially when the Patriots are the ones getting the points and not giving them as is usually the case, but am going to have to take the Chiefs in this one, as I simply believe they’re the better team at this point in time.
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