Last Updated: 2019-10-14
There aren’t many good things about a Monday, but looking at the NFL betting odds is one of them. It is always fascinating to see the adjustments that have taken place coming out of the previous week’s games. Sometimes the moves are injury-related, but sometimes they are also results or perception-based. Those are the most fun to examine.
Few markets see overreaction quite like the NFL odds. All eyes are on the teams and there is no way to hide from the judgments and the changes of opinion. A team is a Super Bowl contender one week and a playoff pretender the next week. Perhaps that’s a touch extreme, but it remains a market that is constantly in a state of flux because of the inherent volatility of people playing sports.
That brings us to Week 7 in the NFL. The bad teams are again getting lots of points, but teams thought to be good are no longer held in that same regard. Teams thought to be pretty good are now being priced like they are really good, but we don’t know how good they are. If it sounds confusing, it probably is with 5-6 data points for each team and a lot of inconsistency around the league.
Here is the Week 7 Opening Line Report:
303/304 Kansas City (-3.5, 49) at Denver – Things aren’t going well for the Chiefs. A hobbled Patrick Mahomes and back-to-back losses have really changed the complexion of this short-week visit to the Mile High City. Kansas City is still favored, but the look-ahead lines and the opening lines weren’t right, as Kansas City is now a 3.5-point favorite across most of the market. Some books opened as high as 5.5. The total has come down as well. Give the Broncos credit, as they’ve scored back-to-back wins, but a quick turnaround with Mahomes on the road in Denver has led to some movement on this line.
451/452 Arizona at NY Giants (-2.5, 49.5) – The Giants are on extra rest as they host the Cardinals on Sunday. Even though the Cardinals topped the Falcons this past weekend, the Giants have taken some of the early action to go from -1 or -1.5 up to -2.5 or -3. The Giants played on Thursday last week and played super shorthanded in the loss to the Patriots. With more hands hopefully on deck here, including Saquon Barkley, their prospects look a little brighter.
453/454 Houston at Indianapolis (-1, 48) – This could very well be the signature game of Week 8. The Colts are on extra rest and the Texans are off of a huge win against the Chiefs. We’ve seen a flipped favorite scenario across most of the market for this game. We’ve also seen the total increase a little bit, but this will be a very popular 1 p.m. ET game. The Texans are riding a really nice wave right now. The Colts were probably forgotten to a degree during the bye week. This will be an interesting line move to follow.
455/456 Miami at Buffalo (-16.5, 39) – The Bills are laying just about three scores against the hapless Dolphins, who did cover last week thanks to a wide-open backdoor left by the Redskins in the Tank for Tua Bowl. The Bills caught a bye at the right time with the opportunity to get Josh Allen right and rest a defense that has carried a heavy load. The total is where we see initial sharp action as some places are as low as 38.5 with a move down from 41. The Bills could very well cover here by winning 17-0 or 21-3.
457/458 Minnesota at Detroit – We’ll see what the market looks like after Monday Night Football is played. Look-ahead lines showed this game around a coin flip, though the Lions will be on a short week against an excellent Vikings defense. Minnesota’s resounding win over a popular public dog in the Eagles is sure to get some respect here. If the Lions play great on MNF, then pick ‘em or -1 is a possibility. If not, and even if they do, Minnesota is likely to be favored.
459/460 Oakland at Green Bay – Similarly, we’ll have to wait and see what this looks like after Monday Night Football. The Raiders played well in two “road” games in Indianapolis and London prior to last week’s bye. The Raiders are back out on the road again here, but they’ll be facing a team taking the field on a short week after a division game. Look-ahead lines showed the Packers about a touchdown favorite, but injuries and Monday’s performance could skew that. Furthermore, the look-ahead lines of 7 and 7.5 were taking Oakland money, so maybe we’re looking more like 6.5 or 6.
461/462 Jacksonville (-3, 43.5) at Cincinnati – The look-ahead lines had this total in the 47.5 range, but that has been adjusted heading into the work week. Jacksonville did not look great at home against the Saints. The Bengals got in the backdoor against the Ravens, but opinions of the Ravens are pretty low in the investment community. Jacksonville is -3 with extra juice market-wide and I would expect that this line moves up to 3.5 early in the week.
463/464 LA Rams (-3, 54) at Atlanta – The Rams are falling from grace at a rapid rate of speed. Even their wins haven’t been great this season. The Falcons have a lame-duck head coach in Dan Quinn and played last week in Arizona and lost, otherwise this line would be closer to pick ‘em. Instead, bettors are left to reluctantly decide between these two unbettable sides. It’s one of the few games this week in which we haven’t seen much line movement.
465/466 San Francisco (-10, 41.5) at Washington – The Redskins won their first game without Jay Gruden, but it came against the Dolphins, which barely counts. The 49ers are going cross-country as a double-digit favorite. San Francisco hasn’t been a double-digit road favorite since Week 17 against the Rams during the 2011 season. This marks the second time since Week 6 in 1998 that the 49ers have been double-digit road chalk. We’ll see if the line holds, but after the last two performances, it’s hard to see Washington bettors running to the window.
467/468 LA Chargers at Tennessee (-1, 38) – It’s hard to bet either one of these teams after what we’ve seen recently. The Titans have scored seven points in their last two games. The Chargers lost to something called a Devlin Hodges last week. Ugly doesn’t even begin to describe this game. So far, we haven’t seen much one way or another, but it does seem rather intriguing that the Chargers are still viewed as the better team on a neutral field.
469/470 Baltimore at Seattle (-3.5, 51) – The Ravens handled their affairs against the Bengals and the Seahawks did the same against the Browns. This is a tough handicap because these are both fade teams in the minds of most bettors. Baltimore’s defense is not good and Lamar Jackson has regressed. Seattle’s Russell Wilson is carrying his team. Some places have come down from 4 to 3.5 for this one, which is the only movement we’ve really seen thus far. It seems like 3.5 will be a good number here, as a movement down to -3 is hard to see.
471/472 New Orleans at Chicago (-3, 38.5) – The Teddy Bridgewater fade backfired yet again for bettors that went in against the Saints QB. Of course, it was the defense that won the game for New Orleans more than anything, but the overriding theme here is that the Saints are proving a lot of detractors wrong. The Bears are off of a bye following the loss in London. All of the -3 lines have extra juice attached to them. The 3.5s and 4s that were available on look-aheads and opens have disappeared. Given how good the Bears defense is, this could end up a sharp vs. public kind of game.
473/474 Philadelphia at Dallas (-3, 48.5) – The Cowboys were a major bust again in Week 6 as they lost to the Jets as a touchdown favorite. It sure doesn’t seem like 3 will last long here. The Eagles also ran into some issues against the Vikings in their 18-point loss, but the Vikings are a playoff-caliber team and the Jets aren’t. Jason Garrett made more missteps and seems to be taking too much control again. Right now, the line is holding -3 at anywhere from -105 to +105. It’s hard to move off of 3 this early in the week, but it might be required.
475/476 New England (-10, 42) at NY Jets – The Patriots weren’t overly impressive on offense in Week 6, but the defense did its thing again to beat the Giants. The Jets upset the Cowboys and there is a renewed sense of optimism with Sam Darnold back. And the Patriots are still a 10-point favorite on Monday Night Football. We were seeing some 9.5s in the market, but those are mostly gone. This could very well end up a sharp vs. public split if the sharp bettors can find a way to fade the Patriots.
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