Last Updated: 2017-11-06
Week 10 lines are out in the NFL and there are already some very interesting numbers and line movements. As the season goes along, a clear top tier and a clear bottom tier have formed, with a lot of teams stuck in the middle with varying levels of success. Over the last couple of weeks, favorites have been strong bets. There are some very big numbers on the board this week, as we have very few spreads sitting around traditional key numbers.
That will be one of many things that we can look for during the week. As for now, let’s take a look at the initial numbers and the moves in our Week 10 Opening Line Report.
Seattle (-6, 41.5) at Arizona – Public bettors are backing the Seahawks early in the week, with the Cardinals taking the sharp investment. We’ve seen this number come down from the Bookmaker opener of 6.5 to as low as 5.5 as shops like BetOnline and Pinnacle. As the total falls, so does the spread, which makes a lot of given the correlation of a bigger spread and a total in the low 40s. This will be a good one to watch because sharp players will likely bump it down and teaser players will grab Seattle in a virtual pick ‘em role.
Minnesota (-1.5, 42.5) at Washington – Hmm. Washington won outright in Seattle, but the Redskins managed 70 of their 244 yards on the game-winning drive for a touchdown. Minnesota is off of the bye, which has been a buy sign for teams in the NFL. This week, the Vikings are getting bet against, so the initial view is that the market has overadjusted to the bye week. This game is -1 and pick ‘em at a couple of places, but DSI Sportsbook is holding at -2 at time of writing. It looks like Washington will close a favorite, which may seem significant after the opener of -2.5, but it really doesn’t take a whole lot to cross zero when -3 has not been involved.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville (-4.5, 41) – The Chargers are another team off of the bye, but they aren’t getting much love either. Most shops are either dealing -4 with extra juice on the Jaguars or the full 4.5. Leonard Fournette should be back after violating team rules, but Jacksonville didn’t even need him against Cincinnati. As this number hits 4.5 everywhere, there won’t be a whole lot of resistance before it gets to -6. We saw Jacksonville take significant money last week against Cincinnati and could see the same this week against the Chargers, who have a bit better of an offense than the Bengals, but a weaker defense.
New York Jets at Tampa Bay (OTB) – The Jets have Josh McCown, minus receiver Jeremy Kerley, who popped a positive PED test, and the Bucs are sitting Jameis Winston down in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick. 5Dimes was one of the few books with a line open and it was pick ‘em until the Winston announcement. Mike Evans has also been suspended. The Jets are now road favorites at 5Dimes and the rest of the market should agree.
Cincinnati at Tennessee (-5.5, 40.5) – Speaking of Cincinnati, what a mess. The early move on this game was likely a reaction to the expectation that AJ Green would be suspended for putting Jalen Ramsey in a headlock and then throwing punches. He’s likely worth a point or a point and a half to the line, especially on an inept offensive team like the Bengals. As it turns out, he is not suspended, so we’ll see if we get a buyout from some of those bettors.The market came in against Tennessee last week against Baltimore and the fact that Green is not out is interesting in terms of where this number will go.
New Orleans (-2, 46) at Buffalo – Teams coming off of extra rest on Thursday nights have been a great bet. This number did inch down a bit from the opener of -2.5, but we’ll have a lot of guys waiting this one out until later in the week in hopes of grabbing a +3 on Buffalo. Weather could be a factor with Drew Brees going outside, so we’ll have to wait until midweek and see what the weather forecasts are looking like. This will be a sharp vs. public split type of game, so this one merits watching as the week goes along.
Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5, 46.5) – The Texans looked about as bad as they could last week. This team without Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt is a mess. Keep in mind that the Texans with Watson wound up being about a touchdown dog in Seattle, although owner Bob McNair’s comments influenced a line move. The Texans were going to be a dog here anyway, probably in the +3 or +3.5 range with Watson, but Tom Savage looked awful, so here we are. The Rams opened -10 and the market wasted no time laying double digits. When that happens in the NFL, it is hugely significant.
Dallas at Atlanta (-3, 51) – While the Ezekiel Elliott soap opera goes on, and some books have this game off the board as a result, the Cowboys are the preferred sharp side thus far. Bookmaker opened Atlanta -3 (-125) and the Cowboys are now +3 (-118), so we are seeing some indications that this line may bump off of 3 and down to 2.5 as the week goes along. Once we get some more clarity on the Elliott suspension, I’d expect that to be the case.
New York Giants at San Francisco (-1.5, 42.5) – This is a number that oddsmakers had no interest in posting. The Giants are a disaster, but the 49ers are winless and have scored 30 points total over the last three weeks. If San Francisco is going to win a game, it would probably be this one. Ben McAdoo looks like a guy headed for the coaching version of the electric chair and he’s sitting in solitary confinement staring at the walls. We won’t see Jimmy Garoppolo before the bye, in all likelihood, but the CJ Beathard Express is taking on money after the Giants opened a small favorite.
New England (-7.5, 46) at Denver – The Patriots are growing as a favorite for this trip to the Mile High City. Brock Osweiler looked awful in the blowout loss to Philadelphia in what was Denver’s third straight road game. Maybe the friendly confines of the high altitude will help, but the problems run deep with the Broncos. The Patriots are off of a bye and they are getting steamed, so at least some things are normal. This number opened 7 flat (-110) at Bookmaker, which, coincidentally, is one of the few books resisting the move to 7.5 at time of writing.
Miami at Carolina (-9, 39.5) – Let’s all rejoice in the blessings that are the Miami Dolphins on in primetime for the third straight week! Ugh. What’s telling about this game is a total of 39.5 with a spread that is actually 10 at 5Dimes. This basically implies that the Miami team total will be somewhere around 14.5, which seems lofty. Carolina’s defense has been on point lately, even if Cam Newton has not reciprocated with the offense.
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