NFL News and Notes For July 29th
- Updated: July 29, 2011
For the last fourth months there was only one topic to talk about, but the NFL has suddenly exploded with news ever since the league owners and the Players Association finally came to terms on a new 10-year CBA (collective bargaining agreement) earlier this week. With the new CBA in place, the league reopened for business on Tuesday and teams started reporting to training as early as yesterday. By the end of the week, all 32 teams will begin preparation for the upcoming preseason and more importantly the start of the regular season in early September.
Most of the news over the past few days has revolved around free agent signing, trades, and big-named players getting their walking papers from their current teams. Some of the biggest deals have involved the movement of a couple of veteran quarterbacks in search of a new home. Longtime Seattle veteran Matt Hasselbeck has reportedly agreed to terms with Tennessee and Washington traded Donovan McNabb to Minnesota. It remains to be seen how much these two can help their new teams, but at the very least, they will probably provide a few ticks downward on each team’s future odds to win the division, conference, or Super Bowl along with an extra win or two on their season win-total projections.
The two other quarterback deals that are currently in the works would place Philadelphia back-up Kevin Kolb in Arizona and Denver’s Kyle Orton in Miami. If these deals go through, it could have an impact on the current odds for both teams, but the effect would be minimal given that both have an array of other issues that need to be addressed as well.
While there has been a fair amount of deals already, there are still a number of veteran players whose future remains up for grabs. The’Nnamdi Asomugh sweepstakes’ continues with the New York Jets the apparent front-runner. His arrival in the Big Apple along with the fact that WR Santonio Holmes is staying put could certainly shift the balance of power towards the Jets in the AFC East. It remains to be seen how the betting public will react to the reported trade of DT Albert Haynesworth from the Redskins to New England, but it is obvious that both teams are using this once in-a-lifetime opportunity to gain the edge in what should be a heated battle for the division title this season.
The bottom line to this whole feeding frenzy is that we are going to have to wait out the entire process to determine the winners and the losers, just as we do when it comes to the NFL draft. The odds makers will be tasked with the same evaluations to determine what adjustments, if any, need to be made to a team’s future odds. For the most part, they will be content to simply sit back and let the betting public dictate the movement of the lines, and then adjust accordingly. Bodog has already reduced limits on its future odds for the Super Bowl and has taken its odds for the NFC and AFC title temporarily off the board.
Actual player values tend to get somewhat inflated due to public perception, which in-turn leads to a large influx of money shifting towards a team just because it picked-up an aging veteran quarterback or an over-priced defensive lineman. These player moves are designed to make a team better, but more times than not, it fails to work out that way. It is best to avoid the temptation to be swayed by a single move here or there. Take the wait-and-see approach, and then handicap a team on its complete roster to get a true picture of its chances this season.
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