NFL Lock Of the Week – Week 5
- Updated: October 6, 2011
NFL Lock for Week 5: The San Francisco 49ers Will Defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The NFL Lock of the week last week was a solid winner as the Houston Texans ran over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The game was not even close as Houston pulled away early and then survived without their best player when Andre Johnson went down with an injury.
This week the lock of the week is on the west coast as the San Francisco 49ers Will Defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 49ers opened as small 2.5 point favorites and the betting public is putting cash on the road team in this game. This can be because of the history of the 49ers in recent years.
This is a different team and they are buying into this system. Alex Smith is being put into situations where he can be successful. New coach Jim Harbaugh has found a way to exploit his skills and this team is winning and winning against quality teams. They are overflowing with confidence after a huge come from behind win against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The betting trends in this game favor the home team. The Buccaneers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0, -7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, and 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games on grass.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Buccaneers have a very talented young core of players led by quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman is great at winning games and coming from behind, but the offense is still sluggish. This was very evident on the Monday Night Football game, when they struggled against the hapless Colts.
The Bucs now have to travel coast-to-coast and do it on a short week. The betting public is not taking the 49ers very seriously, but they will after they have a big win and cover this small number at home.