NFL Lock of the Week – Week 10


The Kansas City Chiefs over the Denver Broncos is a Lock This week

The Kansas City Chiefs are off a humiliating loss to the Miami Dolphins that allowed the fins to get their first win of the week. The Denver Broncos are off one of their biggest wins of the season as they crushed the Oakland Raiders on the road, setting this game up for one of the easiest plays of the week. In fact it’s so easy it’s the best bet on the board or the lock of the week in the NFL for week ten.

This game also features several systems that favor the Chiefs in this game. The first system is this one. Play on any team that lost its last game by 20 or more points at home (103-76-2, 57.5% ATS since 2002) The Chiefs set up nicely in this 57% angle, but there is more. Play on any team that failed to cover the spread by 25 points or more in its last game (101-62-6, 62.0% ATS since 2002). Both of these systems indicate that a team that lost as badly as the Chiefs did have an easier time the next time out rebounding with a big win.

Tim Tebow is getting the Broncos headed in the right direction by getting the big win, but he is easily contained and the Chiefs defense should be able to take advantage of that and get a big win that covers the number. The Broncos are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, and 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.

With those sports betting trends on their side the Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 is the lock of the week in the NFL.

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