NFL Lessons Learned Week 16

Last Updated: 2017-12-26

The NFL season is just one week away from ending the regular season. Teams have one chance to jockey for position in the post season. This last week of the regular season could be the hardest one to navigate when looking for winners against the spread. The hard working handicapper will have to decide what teams are playing hard and what teams have given up on the season. If they can successfully do that then week 17 can be a profitable one that will build the bankroll for the playoffs.

Before looking ahead it is essential to look backwards at week 16 and find some lessons learned that can be used in the future.

Dead Dolphins

At this time of the year, teams give up and the Miami Dolphins are one of those teams. They lost to the Kansas City Chiefs who covered the closing line of (-11). They failed to cover the spread once again and now they are 9-21-1 ATS in the last 31 games after failing to cover the spread. That could make the Dolphins a team to fade next week at home as 3 point underdogs against Buffalo.

Tumbling Titans

The Tennessee Titans still have a chance to make the playoffs but they may not last long if they do. The Titans barley covered this week against the LA Rams, but they still show the inability to get the job done against teams with a winning record. Even with the win against the number in week 16 the Titans are 18-36-1 against teams with a winning record. The Titans will try and improve on that record again when they host the Jaguars this week.

Buyback on the Blowout

The Seahawks upset the Cowboys on Sunday night football. The Seahawks were off an ugly blowout and many fans and handicappers gave up on them. That was a big mistake. For next season in the NFL you may want to keep this trend handy. Teams that are coming off a loss of five touchdowns or more are 53-29-5 ATS since 2003 and 44-21-5 ATS when they are an underdog in that same time span.  Betting on a team that has just been embarrassed will bring back some serious profits in the next outing.

Not 14-0 But….

Last week the favorites went 14-0 straight up on the money line. That made it clear that someone would try and take all the favorites again this week, but they came up just short. Heading into the Christmas Day games, favorites went 11-3 straight up and only 7-6-1 ATS. Nothing incredible, but once again the favorites finished on top.

No Nightcap in Week 17

As we look back we also have to take a quick sneak peek ahead. The last week of the NFL season is going to look much different than usual.  There will be no Sunday night football game in week 17. This has not happened since 1977. This is usually one of the most popular games of the week as everyone is looking for the last game to bet on to win big.

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