Last Updated: 2019-09-15
A bit of an ugly start to the NFL last week, going 1-2, and losing an ugly one with the Chiefs under on this page. For our NFL System Play this week, we’ll look at the game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins, where the Pats opened as 18-point favorites and are now 18.5 after receiving two-thirds of the early wagers. The total has moved from 48 to 48.5 even though more than 55% of the early wagers have come in on the under.
The Patriots didn’t have any problems against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night, rolling to a 33-3 victory and now travel to play a Dolphins team that was thumped 59-10 by the Baltimore Ravens. The spread is certainly on the high side, but it’s a decent number, as evidenced by all of the wagers that have come in on the Pats.
Naturally, I can’t pass up the Fish as such large underdogs and there is a bit of support for Miami, with home underdogs who lost their last game by 30 or more points going 68-48-5 against the spread over the years and 30-20-2 if they are getting a touchdown or more.
But the Patriots are in an even worse situation that sees double-digit road favorites posting an 8-19 ATS record if they allowed seven or fewer points in their previous game. Somehow, these double-digit favorites are just 18-9 straight-up, as well, while you would expect a better number out of a team favored by at least 10 points. These plays don’t come about too often, as they’re just 1-8 ATS dating back to the 2006 season.
The Patriots were a much different team on the road last year, where they averaged just 23.3 points per game, so not sure about laying 18.5 with them in this spot, as only once did they win by 19 points last year, when they beat Buffalo 25-6.
The other storyline besides how much the Dolphins stunk it up in Game 1 is how Brian Flores will do trying to slow down his old team, where he was the defensive coordinator and probably knows the New England personnel as well as anybody.
The Dolphins might be looking forward to the future, but the NFL is still a business and another 40-point loss is going to lead to a lot of empty seats, so expect a better effort from the ‘Fins in this one and will grab Miami and the points.
END OF WEEK 2 PICKS
Time to turn to the NFL and we’ll start off with our NFL Betting System Picks and look at a system that we’ve used the same basic premise for a couple of seasons now and one that’s specific to Week 1. The basic premise is we’re looking for home underdogs to go under the total in Week 1. We can break it down to more specifics based on the spread and the total.
But the common premise of taking games with a home underdog has gone a solid 58-89-5 (39.5%) dating all the back to the 1990 season. If we look at more recent trends, from 2010 onward, it’s still solid, going 16-27-4, which is 37.2% overs.
As of Friday night we have five road favorites, but the game we’ll look at it is the one between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kansas City opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 3.5 despite the Chiefs getting more than 70% of the early wagers. The total has moved from 52 to 51 with more than two-thirds of the early wagers on the under.
If we look at Week 1 games with a road favorite and a total of 45 or higher, the record is just 9-26-1 and three of the games meet that criteria, but taking the Jacksonville game here, as the Jags have been dominant at home defensively and last year didn’t allow more than 20 points at home in a single game. Nick Foles is an improvement over the Blake Bortles we saw last year, but he doesn’t have do anything other than make smart decisions and not turn the ball over.
On the other side of the equation, Kansas City scored a minimum of 27 points in their road games and averaged 38, so something is going to have to give here and believe it will be the Kansas City offense. The Jaguars can play ball a ball control game when the offense is clicking, which it never did last year under Bortles despite the defense standing on its head at times.
The Jaguars know they’re not going to be able to match the Chiefs in a shootout, so the best chance for Jacksonville is going to be to try and shorten the game; run the ball a lot and take some time between plays to let the clock run.
This one should be a decent game between teams with different philosophies, but will take the under in this spot.
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