NFL Betting Strategy Week 6
- Updated: October 13, 2012
NFL Strategies: Using the Injury Report to middle NFL games
The Injury report is a very valuable handicapping tool and that is why every week here at Bang The Book we focus on writing up a injury report article that covers some of the big names that are hurt heading into the next week. This report can be used in more ways than one, which is where this week’s betting strategy comes into play.
Middling a bet in football basically, means betting both sides of a game and hoping that the number falls in the best making both sides a winner. This is usually done around one of the “key” numbers such as 3 or 7.
For example this week the Arizona Cardinal opened as a five point favorite over the Buffalo Bills. The Cardinals are a good team and only have one loss on the season and come into this game with extra rest after playing on Thursday.
The Bills are having a horrible defensive season and after a west coast trip could be in trouble against the Cardinals, but injuries deserve a look.
Although injuries may not cause a big enough move to jump a key number in this scenario, getting on it early will only help. The Cardinals have injury problems.
Coach Ken Whisenhunt announced Monday that running back Ryan Williams will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury suffered against the Rams, according to the team’s website. A second round pick in the 2011 draft, Williams missed all of his rookie season with a torn Achilles’ tendon.
With that in mind, if you think the Bills are worth a bet now might be the time to lock them in at +5. This number could dip with this injury news and if it does and get as low as 3 points or lower than the football betting fanatic could always middle it. The number may go the other way and provide more value at 7+.
The bottom line is that injuries should be an essential part of handicapping and your weekly betting strategies in the NFL.