NFL Betting By the Numbers: Week 5
- Updated: October 4, 2013
When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NFL betting lines for Week 5. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0 – The number of games that the St. Louis Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars have each covered this season. Someone is going to get their first cover of the year on Sunday when these two teams face off with one another, and it should be a heck of a game, at least in relation to betting. The game itself is full on intrigue for all of the wrong reasons. The running back situation in St. Louis is murky at best, and the fact of the matter is that the Jags have the worst run defense in the league (and probably the worst offense in the league, too). The better fun that we’ll tease here? Jacksonville is already getting nearly four full touchdowns against the Denver Broncos next week at Mile High.
0 – The number of rushing yards that the St. Louis Rams had last week in the first half against the San Francisco 49ers. More on this lousy game that St. Louis is playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars! The remedy, of course, we have already gone over. Take on the worst rush defense in the league! If some combination of RB Benny Cunningham, RB Isaiah Pead, and RB Darryl Richardson can’t figure out how to move the football up and down the field against this Jacksonville ‘D’, something is seriously wrong in the Gateway to the West.
0 – MORE! The number of touchdowns that the Jags have scored in the first half of games this year. It’s amazing to think that this team has only three offensive scores for the whole campaign, and it’s even more amazing to think that not one of them has been scored in the first half. And isn’t it fitting to think that we have mentioned the number ‘0’ three times in relation to the worst game of the day on Sunday! We promise we’re done with this game, that quite frankly is worth about as much as the numbers that we have discussed thus far.
1 – The number of teams that have made the playoffs since the merger after starting off the year at 0-4. The 1992 San Diego Chargers started 0-4 and finished 11-5 as the AFC West champs. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants are amongst the 0-4 teams that are going to try to change all of that this year, and the truth of the matter is that neither is that far removed from the playoffs. The AFC North and the NFC East have some of the weakest divisions at the top in all of football, and there is a real possibility that the winner of the NFC East might have just seven wins this season. Don’t discount the G-Men by any stretch of the imagination. If they can stop turning the ball over, they can get back into the thick of the fight in this division.
3.88 – The number of yards per carry that the running backs for the Seattle Seahawks are averaging this year. For RB Marshawn Lynch and RB Robert Turbin, this really is unacceptable. These two men averaged 4.98 yards per carry last season, and that’s why the Seahawks were one of the most dangerous teams in all of football. This year though, the team is 4-0 SU without the help of the running game all that much, and if that’s the case, we can only imagine just how good this side is going to be if Lynch ever busts out the Beast Mode again.
4 – The number of different NFL games that you’ll be able to see live on TV this week. That’s right, for perhaps the first time in NFL history, we have a four pack of games on Sunday. Those of you with the NFL Network can watch your regular games at 1:00 and 4:25, as well as Sunday Night Football at 8:30, and then the game between the Oakland Raiders and the San Diego Chargers at 11:35 p.m. ET. It’s going to be a late night for sure both on the East Coast and even on the West Coast, but this was a necessity, knowing that the Oakland Athletics are hogging up the O.co Coliseum on Friday and Saturday. It would have been impossible to convert the baseball stadium into a football field once again between the 11:00 PM local time or so that the stadium would have been cleared out for Game 2 of the ALDS and the 10:00 AM local time or so that it would have required the stadium being finished for the Raiders kickoff against the Bolts. Alas, we have late night football on Sunday!
10 – The number of consecutive games for the St. Louis Rams without scoring a first quarter touchdown. Okay, we lied. We had one more dubious stat about this game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. We figure that it is fitting that we mentioned Jacksonville’s first half woes, so we may as well mention St. Louis’ first quarter woes as well. The last time this team scored a touchdown in the first half was now nearly an entire year ago on the calendar, though that figures to change come Sunday.
11.5 – The number representing the biggest point spread of the weekend. We’re sorry to say it, but the St. Louis Rams are the big favorites, laying that huge number against the Jacksonville Jaguars. We’ll leave it at that. We’ve spoken about this game far, far too much already.
12 – The number of consecutive games in which the Detroit Lions have allowed at least 20 points. You might not think that’s all that notable, but when you’re talking about over/unders and talking about how to cover games, the Lions are writing a book on how not to do it. Giving up at least three TDs every single game is as good as death, and though this team is 3-1 and tied atop the NFC North, there is every reason in the world to believe that this is going to be the 13th straight game on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers in which the team fails to keep a team in even the teens.
12 – The number of ‘under’ games that the Cleveland Browns have played in their last 15 games at home. After trading RB Trent Richardson away two weeks ago, it looks promising for this week to feature yet another ‘under’ game as well on Thursday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills. The ‘under’ train could continue to roll all season long at FirstEnergy Stadium, as both of the first two games this year at the Dawg Pound have failed to reach the number.
21 – The number of consecutive home wins for the Green Bay Packers over the Detroit Lions. Not every single one of those games was played at Lambeau Field, as a few of the games were played in Milwaukee when the Pack used to visit there once a year, but the point remains the same. These loveable losers can’t figure out how to win a game in Wisconsin to save their lives. Detroit is once again getting a massive 7.5 points this week, and though there is some optimism that states winning this game could really be putting the Packers into a world of hurt, Lions fans have come to accept the fact that this is a game that their team is probably losing.
38.5 – The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend. The game pits the Kansas City Chiefs against the Tennessee Titans, and it shouldn’t be considered all that much of a surprise that this game is one of the lowest numbers that we have seen all year. Both of these defenses have a nasty streak to them, and both of these units are amongst the best in the game at forcing turnovers. On top of that, the Titans are stuck going with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in this game, as he is starting in place of the injured QB Jake Locker, who hurt his hip and will be out for at least the next four weeks.
56 – The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. The Denver Broncos and the Dallas Cowboys are featuring this ridiculously high number, but it really doesn’t matter who in the heck is playing against the Broncos. These numbers are always going to be ridiculously high when push comes to shove. QB Peyton Manning has 16 TDs against no picks for the year, and yes, for those of you that are doing the math, that’s being on a pace for a 64/0 TD/INT ratio on the season. This Denver team looks the part of one that is going to smash every record known to man, and every ‘total’ warrants being this high.
71 – The number of points per game that the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles are combining to give up this year. Granted, we know that the Denver Broncos had a lot to say about that for both of these teams, but neither really has a pulse defensively right now. About the only remedy for either of these defenses might be the fact that they are playing against each other this week, and even allowing 30 points might make you a winning team. Heck, at least the Eagles can force some turnovers, as the G-Men still can’t get out of their own way and stop leaving the ball on the ground and throwing it to the other team.
100 – The number that represents the magic quarterback rating for QB Colin Kaepernick. In games in his career in which he gets to a 100 QB rating, the 49ers are 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. In games in which he doesn’t, the 49ers look awfully normal and not at all extraordinary. Getting to a QB rating of 100 for a whole season is incredibly difficult, but getting to 100 for at least seven or eight games over the course of the year isn’t so hard. Not surprisingly, Kaepernick had a 100+ quarterback rating twice this year, and in those games, the team has scored 69 points and has two wins and covers. In the other two games? Two SU defeats. Two ATS defeats. Just 17 total points scored.