NFL Betting By the Numbers: Week 4 Numbers Of Note
- Updated: September 28, 2012
When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the football betting lines for Week 4. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
2: The number of wins this year that QB Christian Ponder has. To put that in perspective, that’s double the wins that QB Drew Brees and QB Aaron Rodgers have this year, and it is the same number of wins that Brees, Rodgers, and QB Tom Brady have put together. It’s amazing to think that Ponder is the man that is leading the NFC North this year, when you think about all of the other great quarterbacks in that division.
3: The number of teams that are still winless from an ATS standpoint this year. Those teams are the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and New Orleans Saints, and the time is obviously coming that all of those teams are going to cover spreads. These two teams haven’t been bad from an SU standpoint, though. They are a combined 3-6 SU, which isn’t as bad as you would figure for teams that are a combined 0-9 ATS. And then there’s the number…
4: The number of teams that are still undefeated from an ATS standpoint this year. The Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, and Houston Texans are 3-0 SU, but the more or less exception to the rule is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 3-0 ATS and 1-2 SU. As it happens to be, Tampa Bay is one of the three teams in the league that have a winning ATS record that have a negative scoring margin this year. The other three teams? The Cards, Falcons, and Texans have three of the four best scoring margins in the league, and all of them have a +9.0 or better.
5: The number of teams that are favored on the road this week. All of these road teams are going to be in a lot of trouble though, as none of them are favored by more than four points, and virtually all of them are considered very public plays. In fact, the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals, both of which are short favorites on the road, have over 70% of the betting action on their side as of Thursday. The real question? How many of these five teams are going to get upset this week. We’d bet at least two, if not at least three.
6: The number of field goals that K Ryan Succop kicked last week for the Kansas City Chiefs against the New Orleans Saints. What’s really impressive about that is the fact that Succop had only kicked two field goals for the rest of the year combined before booting six, none more important than the one in overtime that gave the Chiefs their first victory of the season. The six field goals broke a franchise record and came just one shy of the all-time NFL record, but more importantly, it probably helped saved KC’s season.
9: The number of turnovers that QB Michael Vick has already accounted for this year. He has been picked off six times and lost three fumbles. Why is this number so significant? Aside from the fact that three turnovers per game is absolute insane, it is also the exact same number of turnovers that Vick had in the entire 2010 season when he really should have won the MVP Award. Now, Vick did only play 13 games that year, and he only started 12, but the comparison is insane. And now you know why the number ‘9’ might be the reason that Head Coach Andy Reid wants to make #7 his #2 quarterback if things don’t improve.
9-1: The number representing the record that the Seattle Seahawks have against the St. Louis Rams over the course of the last five seasons. The Hawks have really consistently had the better offense in this series during this time, but this is the first year that this might be an exception. Sure, when RB Marshawn Lynch is in Beast Mode, there aren’t many better rushing games in the league. QB Sam Bradford and QB Russell Wilson are both iffy quarterbacks this year, and neither are really capable of those massive 300 or 400-yard games, and neither is likely to put up three or four TDs either. That’s why this might be one of the lower scoring games of the week.
11.5: The number representing the biggest point spread of the week. It’s the Houston Texans that have the task of starting in the biggest hole of the week, and they have to beat the Tennessee Titans by at least a dozen to get the job done and move to 4-0 SU and ATS. Tennessee is lucky to not be 0-3 this year, knowing that it gave up a two-touchdown lead in the final 18 seconds of regulation against the Detroit Lions. The Texans though, just continue to beat the snot out of teams, and if not for a late flurry by the Denver Broncos, they would not just have three wins and not just have three covers, but they would have three double digit victories as well.
33.0: The number of points per game that the Oakland Raiders are averaging in their last five games against this week’s opponent, the Denver Broncos. In those games, Oakland is 4-1 SU and ATS, and there is no game in which Oakland has scored fewer than 23 points. The Denver defense is still one of the best in the league, though it didn’t show last week in the loss to the Houston Texans. QB Carson Palmer is going to be up against it for sure against these corners, and getting to this type of a point total again in a game in which Denver so badly needs will be tough.
46: The number of consecutive games that QB Drew Brees has thrown a touchdown pass. A touchdown pass in this one against the Green Bay Packers, and he’ll have the record for the most consecutive games in NFL history with a score, surpassing QB Johnny Unitas. Brees is going to need all of the touchdowns that he can get this week against the Packers, who are due to bust out from their offensive slump.
53.5: The number that represents the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. It shouldn’t be that much of a surprise that this game features the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints, who combined to put 76 on the board last year when they met in this very same venue at Lambeau Field. The stakes are clearly higher right now than they were back in Week 1 in 2011, as both of these teams badly need a win to get back on the right track. Combined, they only have a single win this year, and the loser of this game is going to be in amazing trouble in the first quarter of the season, particularly if it is New Orleans.
64: The number of total 300-yard passing games that QB Peyton Manning has in his career. He got that 64th 300-yard game last week against the Houston Texans. The game also happened to be his first 300-yard game as a member of the Denver Broncos. Manning clearly looks like a gunslinger in the second half of games this year, and for the last two weeks, he has figured out how to lead his team back to have a chance to win against some awesome opponents. Denver has lost both games, but without Manning, it would have gotten killed and never really had a shot to get back in the action.
68.4: The number representing the percentage of home underdogs that have covered the spread this year. As we said already, there are five teams that fit into this description this week (though we know that that number could change by Sunday), and this number could go up even more after this week is said and done with. Not only are home underdogs 13-6 this year from an ATS standpoint, but they are also 12-7 SU to boot. Think about that for a second. Underdogs at home are a whopping 12-7 STRAIGHT UP!
71.9: The number representing the quarterback rating for QB Jay Cutler in primetime games since joining the Chicago Bears. Yikes! To prove just how bad that is, that would rank No. 28 in the league amongst the 32 passers. Of course, Cutler’s quarterback rating this year is 31st in the league at 58.6, and he is going to be expected to improve upon both of these numbers when he takes on the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football this week.
1996: The number representing the last time that the Miami Dolphins won a game on the road in the desert. That also happens to be the last time that the Fins covered a spread against this week’s foe, the Arizona Cardinals. Of course, there are only three games that these two have played over the course of the last decade and a half, but the Cards are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in those games.
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