NFL Week 11 Best Bets

Last Updated: 2018-11-15

The heavy-loaded contenders continued with a strong performance in Week 10 besides the New England Patriots who lost at the Tennessee Titans 34-10, while the Carolina Panthers were smashed by the Pittsburgh Steelers 52-21 to drop to 6-3 on the season. We also saw some upsets as the Buffalo Bills thrashed off the New York Jets 41-10 on the road as +260 money line dogs with the total at 37.5 points, whilst the Atlanta Falcons fell at Cleveland 28-16 as 5.5-point favorites.

The upcoming Week 11 brings some tough matchups to bet on including the clash between two best teams in the league as the Los Angeles Rams welcome the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The defending champions Philadelphia Eagles visit the red-hot New Orleans Saints, the Chicago Bears welcome the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC North showdown, while the Green Bay Packers open the round at the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. Rest of the matchups also bring plenty of excitements, so let’s take a look at our five best wagers for Week 11.

Houston Texans at Washington Redskins (+3.0)

The Houston Texans (6-3; 4-5 ATS) are coming off a bye to visit the Washington Redskins as 3-point favorites with the total at 42.5 points and Washington at +130 money line odds. The Texans are on a six-game winning streak, covering the spread on the previous three occasions while the under has hit in four of these six tilts. On the other side, the Redskins (6-3; 6-3 ATS) are 4-1 straight up and ATS in their last five outings while four of these five games were ended in the under.

This should be a battle of defenses as the Redskins are allowing 19.4 points (5th in the league) on 361.0 total yards per game (17th in the league), while their run defense is allowing just 90.9 yards per contest (5th in the league). The Texans are conceding 20.4 points (7th in the league) on 336.3 total yards per game (9th in the league), and their run defense is 6th in the league (92.9). On the other side, neither of these two teams possesses the top 15 offense, especially the Redskins who are tallying just 19.6 points per game (27th in the league), while the Texans are scoring 24.0 points per game (16th in the league).

It’s a big game for both Houston and Washington, as the winner will be a step closer to the playoffs, so I expect to see a tight battle. You never know with Alex Smith on his home soil, but it seems like neither side is capable of smashing a bunch of points here, so I’m backing the under. Washington and Houston have met each other just four times so far, and the average total score is 40.5 points per contest.

Week 11 Best Bet: Under 42.5 points (-110)

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.0)

The Los Angeles Chargers (7-2; 5-4 ATS) are on a six-game winning streak, coming off a comfortable 20-6 victory at the Oakland Raiders. Philip Rivers is having a wonderful season with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions, while the Chargers’ defense is playing on a high level, ranking 8th in the league in points allowed per game (20.7). The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings, and they are 3-1 straight up and 1-3 ATS in four games at home this season including a 20-19 win over Tennessee at Wembley Stadium in London, UK.

Likewise, the Chargers are 7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games including a 21-0 victory to the Denver Broncos in their previous H2H meeting. The Broncos (3-6; 3-5-1 ATS) have won just one of their last seven games, beating the Arizona Cardinals 45-10 on the road, while they are 5-15 straight up and 5-14-1 ATS in the last 20 games overall. On the other hand, the Broncos are 5-2 ATS in the last seven road meetings with the Chargers.

Against the Cardinals, Denver’s defense has shown its full potential, but the Broncos’ are allowing 23.7 points (15th in the league) on 364.0 total yards per game (21st in the league). They will need their best game to slow down the Chargers’ attack that is racking up 392.1 total yards per contest (8th in the league). The hosts are strong favorites here for a reason, but this is the last call for the Broncos who have to win if they want to stay in the playoff picture, so I hope their defense will come in full strength and Case Keenum will finally play a solid game as he’s 2nd in the NFL with 10 interceptions.

Week 11 Best Bet: Denver Broncos +7.0 (-110)

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.0)

The AFC South showdown between the Tennessee Titans (5-4; 6-3 ATS) and the Indianapolis Colts (4-5; 4-4-1 ATS) is a huge game for both teams. The Colts have a chance to tie the second place with Tennessee behind New England, but the eventual loss will put them in a tough position. Indi is 16-4 straight up and 13-7 ATS in its last 20 meetings with the Titans and 9-1 straight up and 8-2 ATS in the previous ten meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium, but the Titans have won the last two H2H matchups including the last one in Indianapolis.

The Colts have won three games in a row, coming off a 29-26 victory to the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. They are 2-2 straight up and 1-2-1 ATS in four home games this season and 8-1 straight up and 6-2-1 ATS in their previous nine home games when listed as favorites, while the under is 6-3 during that nine-game span. On the other side, the Titans are coming off a brilliant 34-10 home win to the New England Patriots, while they are 4-6 straight up and 5-5 ATS in the last ten outings on the road.

The Titans mostly rely on their strong defense, allowing just 16.8 points per game (1st in the league), so they will certainly try to slow down the tempo against the Colts and run as much as they can. The Titans are racking up 114.4 rushing yards per game (15th in the league), but they are scoring just 18.7 points per contest (28th in the league). On the other side, the Colts attack is more fluid, and they are tallying 28.9 points per game (6th in the league), but they should have a difficult task versus the Titans’ defense. The over is 5-1 in Indi’s last six games overall, while the under is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last five games overall and it is 10-3 in the last 13 H2H matchups at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Week 11 Best Bet: Under 49.0 points (-110)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1; 6-3 ATS) are on fire recently winning five games in a row including a 52-21 demolition job over the Carolina Panthers at Heinz Field in their last outing. Ben Roethlisberger is finally playing in a good form, tossing for nine touchdowns and just one interception in the last three games, while James Conner is clipping on all cylinders as the sophomore RB racked up 100+ rushing yards in four of his last five appearances.

On the other side, the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6; 3-5-1 ATS) dropped the last five games, playing some lousy defense and scoring in single-digits two times in the process. The Jaguars lost their last game at home to the Houston Texans 20-7, while they are coming off a 29-26 defeat at the Indianapolis Colts where they allowed 29 first-half points. The only good news for the Jaguars is Leonard Fournette’s return from injury, and he had 109 yards from scrimmage and a couple of touchdowns against the Colts.

This is the last chance for the Jaguars to stay in the playoff picture, but they will have a tough job against the Steelers. Jacksonville’s ground game should be a strong weapon, but the Steelers run defense is 4th-best in the league as they are allowing just 90.8 rushing yards per game. The Steelers are 9-0-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games on the road, while the under is 9-3 in their previous 12 games away from home. Pittsburgh should get a win here, but if the Jaguars want to stay close and stand a chance, they will need their defense at its best, so I’ll take the under.

Week 11 Best Bet: Under 47.5 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Another division derby is on our list as the Chicago Bears (6-3; 6-3 ATS) host the Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1; 4-3-2 ATS) at Soldier Field. The Vikings have won two of the last three H2H meetings in Chicago, but they are 3-11 straight up and ATS in the previous 14 H2H duels at Soldier Field. On the other hand, the Vikings are 6-1 straight up and 3-4 ATS in the last seven H2H duels overall.

The Bears are topping the NFC North at the moment with a half-game lead ahead of the Vikings, so this is a big game for both teams. The Bears are on a three-game winning streak, while the Vikings have won four of their last five games, so both teams are playing well recently which makes this matchup even tougher to predict the final outcome. However, the stats are suggesting we could easily see a tight, low-scoring affair.

Although Chicago is scoring 29.9 points per game (5th in the league), the Bears are allowing just 19.4 points per game (4th in the league), while the Vikings are conceding 22.7 points per contest (11th in the league), but in their last five outings, the Vikings are allowing just 18.8 points per game. The under is 10-3 in the last 13 H2H games and it is 4-0 in the previous four H2H meetings in Chicago, so I hope we’ll see another tight race between these two rivals.

Week 11 Best Bet: Under 45.5 points (-110)

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