NFL Week 15 Best Betting Picks

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-12-13

Week 15 brings plenty of interesting games on Sunday, December 15, 2019. The battle for the playoff spots continues, as well as the race for the first-round bye, so excitements are guaranteed in Week 15. There are some very intriguing conference matchups including Atlanta at San Francisco and Tampa Bay at Detroit, so let’s take a look at our best five wagers for the upcoming Sunday along with all-important betting trends and notes.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.0)

The Broncos (5-8; 8-5 ATS) may have found their future QB, as Drew Lock has won his first two games in the NFL. The Broncos outlasted the Chargers 23-20 at home in Week 13, while they thrashed off the Texans 38-24 as 8-point road underdogs. Drew Lock threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns in the first half, and the Broncos had a ridiculous 31-3 lead at the break. Besides a 20-3 defeat at the Buffalo Bills in Week 12, the Broncos have scored at least 23 points in each of their last five outings.

Denver is 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall, but the Broncos will have a tall task to upset the odds in Kansas City. They are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Chiefs (9-4; 8-5 ATS). In their first duel of the season, the Chiefs routed the Broncos 30-6 as 3-point road favorites. However, the Broncos will be fired up against their division foes who are trying to avoid the wild-card round.

The Chiefs are on a three-game winning streak following a terrific 23-16 victory at the New England Patriots this past Sunday. During their streak, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 17 points to their opponents. Now, I expect a slight regress against the Broncos’ surging offense. The Chiefs’ run defense is a big issue. They allow 137.7 rushing yards per game (28th in the league), and the Broncos should have enough firepower to exploit Kansas City’s flaws. On the other side, the Chiefs’ offense can score a bunch of points on anybody. Give me the over on the totals.

Week 15 Best Bet: Over 45.0 points (-110)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+3.5)

The Buccaneers (6-7; 4-8-1 ATS) are on a three-game winning streak following a 38-35 victory to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 14. We saw another high-scoring affair with the Bucs involved, while Jameis Winston threw for 456 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Winston suffered a thumb injury late in the first half, but he finished the game and will start against the Lions. Mike Evans will miss the clash in Detroit due to a hamstring injury which is a huge blow. Still, the Bucs have enough reliable receivers to damage the Lions’ fragile secondary.

Detroit (3-9-1; 5-8 ATS) is on a six-game losing streak following a 20-7 defeat at the Minnesota Vikings last week. David Blough tossed for 205 yards, a TD, and a couple of interceptions, and he will have a much easier task against the Buccaneers on Sunday. Tampa Bay surrenders the second-most passing yards (278.8) and the second-most points per game (29.3). On the other side, the Lions allow the third-most passing yards (276.5) and are 24th in points allowed per game (25.8).

Therefore, I expect to see a firecracker at Ford Field. Detroit scores 22.1 points per contest (19th in the league), and the Lions can make serious damage through the air. Tampa Bay tallies 29.1 points per game (3rd in the league). These two teams should easily combine for more than 45 points. The over is 10-3 in Tampa Bay’s 13 games this season, and it is 8-5 in Detroit’s 13 outings this term.

Week 15 Best Bet: Over 45.5 points (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

The Jaguars (4-9; 5-8 ATS) have fallen apart over the last few weeks. They are riding a five-game losing streak, surrendering a whopping 34.8 points per contest in that span. Last week, they lost 45-10 to the LA Chargers, allowing a season-high 525 total yards. The Jags’ defense is already on vacation, while their offense is completely out of sync. Jacksonville is averaging 11.4 points per game over its last five showings.

On the other side, the Raiders (6-7; 6-7 ATS) will play their final home game in Oakland. Next year, they will be in Las Vegas. The Raiders lost three straight contests, yielding 38.7 points per game in that stretch while scoring 11.0 in a return. The clash against the slumping Jaguars is a perfect opportunity for redemption, and the Raiders will be fired up to put on a show in Oakland one more time.

This will be the battle between two terrible defenses. Although both teams have been struggling defensively lately, I expect to see a bunch of points in this one. As I’ve mentioned, the Jags are pathetic on the defensive end, but they should find a way to score against the Raiders whose secondary is pretty bad. Give me the over on the totals.  Four of the Raiders’ last five home games went in the over, as well as four of the Jaguars’ previous five contests on the road.

Week 15 Best Bet: Over 45.5 points (-110)

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

The Falcons’ season is already ruined, and they’ve been pretty unpredictable over the last few weeks. Atlanta (4-9; 5-8 ATS) routed Carolina 40-20 at home last week, while the Falcons are 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five outings. Now, they head to San Francisco, and the Falcons will have a tall task to upset the odds against one of the best teams in the league. They are 5-13 SU and 6-12 ATS in the last 18 outings as underdogs.

The 49ers are coming off a tremendous 48-46 road victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 14. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 349 yards, four touchdowns, and a pick, while Emmanuel Sanders had seven receptions for 157 yards and a TD. I expect to see more of the same against the Falcons who allow 258.4 passing yards per game (24th in the league).

Likewise, the Falcons surrender 108.0 rushing yards per contest (15th) and will have a mountain to climb against the Niners’ ground game. San Francisco is 2nd in the league in rushing yards per game (149.1), while the Niners are the second-most efficient team in the league with 30.5 points per game. They are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five games at home, and I expect to see a dominant performance by the Niners who are battling for No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Week 15 Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -10.5 (-110)

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (+10.0)

The Patriots (10-3; 7-6 ATS) suffered a tough 23-16 home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14. It was their second straight defeat, but the Pats are still on the right track to get a first-round bye. They have to bounce back on Sunday, and anything but the Patriots’ convincing victory over the banged-up Bengals would be a massive upset.

Cincinnati (1-12; 5-7-1 ATS) is coming off a 27-19 defeat at the Cleveland Browns this past Sunday. The Bengals earned their lone win back in Week 13, so they can play in a relaxed manner for the rest of the season. Cincy is dead last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (156.7), while the Bengals are the second-most inefficient team in the NFL with 15.2 points per game.

The Pats’ offense has been struggling lately, but the Bengals cannot stop anyone right now. Bill Belichick will know how to prepare his team, and we should see a lot of rushing by the Patriots. Likewise, the Pats’ defense will be too much for the Bengals’ one-dimensional offense. Cincinnati’s ground game is awful, and without rushing, the Bengals won’t stand a chance in this game. I suggest you take the alternative spread. The Pats will win by a TD, at least.

Week 15 Best Bet: New England Patriots -6.5 (-188)

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