NFL Best Bets – Week 12
- Updated: November 23, 2011
With 14 games on the schedule in the last round of byes, the home teams had the edge last week with eight covering against the spread. There were seven favorites and five underdogs that covered with two games ending as a ‘push’. The total line finally evened itself out with six games going ‘over’, seven staying ‘under’, and one ‘push’. Our Week 11 ‘best bets’ were a bit off the mark with the correct call on Tampa Bay, but losses with Buffalo and Arizona.
In an effort to make things right, we crunched the numbers even harder on this week‘s spreads and are once again ready to ‘Bang the Book’ with three more free NFL picks.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
The Browns are in typical mid-season form with a 1-3 record straight-up in their last four games. They have been a major drain on the bankroll this season with a 2-4-2 record against the spread. The main problem with Cleveland is an offense that is averaging just 14.5 points a game.
The bloom is off the rose in Cincinnati with back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but the Bengals have still been profitable this season at 6-4 SU, but 7-2-1 ATS. They are still a well-balanced team with an offense that is ranked 12th in the NFL in scoring and a defense that is ranked eighth in points allowed.
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against the AFC North, while Cincinnati is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games in the division and 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games against the AFC. Stick with the Bengals to rebound this week at home.
The Free NFL Pick: Cincinnati 27 Cleveland 17
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets (-9)
We took it on the chin the last two weeks with Buffalo as it was outscored 79-15 in losses to Dallas and Miami. It is now 5-5 SU on the year and 4-5-1 ATS. This team is not as good as the one that opened the season 4-1, but it is not as bad as the one we have watched the past three weeks.
New York’s division title hopes took a major hit with back-to-back losses to New England and Denver in which its offense produced a total of 29 points. The Jets are also 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. They rolled over the Bills 27-11 as 2.5-point road underdogs before the current two-game skid.
The road has actually been a safe haven in this series with the road team going 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to New Jersey and the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games. The Jets get the win at home but it will not be easy.
The Free NFL Pick: New York 20 Buffalo 13
Washington Redskins vs. Seattle Seahawks (-4)
All the crazy talk about the Redskins winning the NFC East after a 3-1 start has given way to reality after they extended their losing streak to six with an brutal 27-24 overtime loss to Dallas last Sunday as seven-point home underdogs. They are now 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS on the year.
Seattle comes in riding a two-game winning streak including an impressive 22-17 upset over Baltimore two weeks ago as a seven-point home underdog. The Seahawks are 4-6 SU overall and 2-2 SU at home and a healthy 6-3-1 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS at home.
Head-to-head in this series, the home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four. Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five trips west to Seattle. The Seahawks use home field to their full advantage to make it three straight.
The Free NFL Pick: Seattle 23 Washington 16
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