NFL Best Bets – Week 11
- Updated: November 18, 2011
With a full slate of 16 games, the road teams once again got the best of the odds makers last week with 10 covering against the spread. The favorites and underdogs were evenly split at 8-8 and 10 games stayed ‘under’ the total. Our Week 10 ‘best bets’ did not fare so well with a win on the Steelers but losses on both the Bills and the Buccaneers.
In an effort to turn the ship around, we crunched the numbers even harder on this week‘s spreads and are once again ready to ‘Bang the Book’ with three more free NFL picks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers (-14)
Is this the week that the real Buccaneers show up? After a three-game winning streak earlier in the season, Tampa Bay was crushed by San Francisco 48-3 as a 2.5-point road underdog. After a stunning 26-20 victory over New Orleans as a six-point home underdog, it drops three in-a-row to fall to 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS.
Green Bay is starting to make things look a little too easy after pasting Minnesota 45-7 this past Monday night as a 13-point home favorite. It is now 9-0 SU on the year and a very profitable 7-2 ATS. Coming off a short week and with a Thanksgiving Day matchup against Detroit right around the corner, is this the week the Packers take their foot off the gas?
The Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs. However, the Packers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as home favorites. The rub is that head-to-head, Tampa Bay is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
The Free NFL Pick: Green Bay 28 Tampa Bay 17
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (-1)
In the famous word of ESPN’s Chris Berman, it is time for Buffalo to ‘circle the wagons’. Its 3-0 start has spiraled downward to an overall record of 5-4 SU (4-4-1 ATS) after a crushing 44-7 loss to Dallas last Sunday as a 4.5-point road underdog. Fortunately, it remains just one game out of the lead in the AFC East.
Miami has temporarily taken itself out of the ‘Andrew Luck draft day sweepstakes’ with back-to-back wins after an 0-7 start. It still comes into this game with an offense that is averaging just 17.6 points a game and a defense that is ranked 20th overall.
The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss, while the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. In this series, Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
The Free NFL Pick: Buffalo 24 Miami 13
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
Arizona has suddenly shown some signs of life with quarterback John Skelton at the helm for the injured Kevin Kolb. The past two weeks, he has led the Cardinals to back-to-back wins over St. Louis and Philadelphia. They are still just 3-6 SU on the year but a solid 5-4 ATS.
San Francisco is coming off a thrilling 27-20 victory over the New York Giants as a four-point home favorite to raise its record to 8-1 SU and an extremely profitable 8-0-1 ATS. With a road trip against Baltimore on the horizon, the 49ers have to guard against a letdown this Sunday, considering they currently have a five-game lead over Arizona in the NFC West.
The Cardinals are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games on the road, but the road team in this series is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10.
The Free NFL Pick: San Francisco 26 Arizona 19
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