Last Updated: 2019-04-15
Jean Segura and the Philadelphia Phillies will do battle against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. SportsNet New York will televise the matchup and the game will get going at 7:05 p.m. ET.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Vegas is listing New York (+105) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-115). If you think this game’s total will go under 7.5 runs, bookmakers are currently offering -110 odds. Playing the over will return -110 odds. This game currently has a runline of Mets +1.5 (-200) and Phillies -1.5 (+170).
The Mets have gone 9-6 SU this year and are 9-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 2.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline in the season’s early going and 3.1 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 9-5 SU and 6-7 ATS. The team’s gained 1.3 units for moneyline bettors and 0.3 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Philadelphia games have had an over/under record of 9-4 so far in 2019. The Mets have been a decent over bet with a total record of 10-3-1.
Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 4.74 ERA) is projected to get the start for the visiting Mets. The right-handed Syndergaard struck out 155 hitters across 154 innings last year with only 39 walks and finished the season 13-4 overall with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He made four starts against Philadelphia in 2018 and put together a 1-2 record against the Phillies with a 5.75 ERA and 22 strikeouts.
The Phillies will put the ball in the hands of righty Aaron Nola (1-0, 6.46 ERA), who recorded 224 strikeouts across 212 innings last year (33 starts), while finishing the season 17-6 overall with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He made six starts against New York a year ago and compiled a 4-0 record with a 2.15 ERA and 46 strikeouts.
As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 5.2 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 4.76, a WHIP of 1.36 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.9. The bullpen has a 4.64 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 11 divisional games, Phillies starters have an ERA of 5.24 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.86.
The Philadelphia hitters are putting up 5.6 runs per contest, including 5.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .228/.320/.378 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.
Shortstop Jean Segura and first baseman Rhys Hoskins have paced the Phillies’ batters this year. Segura is slashing .317/.369/.467 with 19 hits, nine RBIs and 12 runs scored, while Hoskins is hitting .294 with five homers, 16 RBIs and 13 runs.
In the visiting dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 6.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 10.80 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 6.50, along with a WHIP of 1.29.
Mets hitters have slashed .268/.355/.442 on their way to 6.1 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
New York’s hitters have been paced by first baseman Pete Alonso and outfielder Michael Conforto. Alonso is slashing .345/.419/.800 with six home runs, 17 RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Conforto is slashing .328/.435/.603 with three homers, nine RBIs and 13 runs scored.
The Mets have gained 2.5 units and are 6-4 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to three that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 2.9 units and are 6-6 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in eight of those games, compared to four that went under.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
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New York has tallied 15 extra-base hits over its last five games. Philadelphia has 17 XBH over its last five.
The Mets have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 10 over their last 10.
The Mets have a total OPS of .797 this season and an OPS of .781 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .795 overall and .801 against righties.
New York has posted 24.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 23.8 over its last five.