New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Free Pick 05/17/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-05-17

The New York Mets will head south to face their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The matchup will get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will broadcast the game.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins Odds

Miami (+215) is the underdog to New York (-235) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 6.5 runs (-115 for the under and -105 for the over). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at -175 for the Mets -1.5 runs and +155 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Marlins are just 10-31 straight up (SU) and 15-26 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 14.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 17.3 units ATS. The Mets are 20-22 SU and have gone 22-19 ATS. They’ve lost 5.2 units for moneyline bettors through the early portions of the year, but have gained 0.8 units ATS.

Marlins games have had an over/under record of 17-23-1 so far in 2019. The Mets have an over/under record of 21-17-3.

The right-handed Jacob deGrom is the projected starter for New York. deGrom (3-4, 3.26 ERA) has racked up 64 strikeouts in 47 innings so far. He’s 2-0 with 22 strikeouts and a 0.64 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).

The Marlins are putting the ball in the right hand of Trevor Richards (0-5, 4.46 ERA), who’s got 40 strikeouts and 23 walks as well as a 1.37 WHIP. Richards is 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA in one start against New York this year.

New York’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.57 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.52 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.56, along with a WHIP of 1.31.

Mets hitters have slashed .248/.328/.398 on their way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

New York’s offense has been sparked by left fielder Jeff McNeil and shortstop Amed Rosario. McNeil is slashing .354/.441/.483 with 52 hits, 14 RBIs and 20 runs scored, while Rosario has a .277 average with 43 hits, 24 RBIs and 13 runs scored.

For the home team, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 4.9 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.38, a WHIP of 1.33 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 5.33 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. In 21 games against NL East opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.97 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.28.

The Miami offense has put up 2.6 runs per outing, including 3.0 per game against divisional foes and 0.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .201/.276/.244 over its last five matchups and is 0-5 SU during that span.

The Marlins’ hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .226/.275/.289 with three home runs, 11 RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .224/.308/.296 with 34 hits, 10 RBIs and five runs.

The Mets have lost 3.4 units and are 16-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 17 of those games, compared to 13 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 11.1 units and are 11-21 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 11 of those games, compared to 20 that went under.

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The under has hit in five of Miami’s last seven games.

The Marlins have dropped 10 of their last 11 games SU.

Miami has recorded 14.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 14.0 over its last five.

The Mets have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.

The Mets have an OPS of .726 this season and an OPS of .724 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .589 overall and .583 against righties.

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2019 MLB Betting Guide

Power LinesView all

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BTB PowerLine: TORONTO +144

Edge On: TORONTO 61Bet Now
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BTB PowerLine: OAKLAND +141

Edge On: OAKLAND 30Bet Now
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Play Line: NY METS 142
BTB PowerLine: NY METS -128

Edge On: NY METS 70Bet Now